Purdue (1-9) has yet to defeat a FBS opponent and is coming off a brutal four game stretch where they’ve been outscored by a margin of 155-30 Their best moment came in a spirited comeback versus @Illinois where they scored a season-high 49 points (next highest point total vs. FBS = 21), but still fell to the Illini 50-49 despite a 75% win expectancy. The Boilermakers’ rushing offense is clearly their best unit, ranking 29th in yards per successful rush (10.7 yards) and 23rd in stuff rate (15.2%). Besides a competent run game, Purdue is still fielding the 105th ranked SP+ offense and is hampered by one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 132nd in EPA/rush and 133rd in total QBR allowed. With a final game looming against undefeated Indiana, this is Purdue’s last realistic chance to get a victory over an FBS program.
New HC Jonathan Smith had the Spartans (4-6) off to a lightning-fast start after taking over for the departed Mel Tucker, going 3-0 with a tough 27-24 victory over Big Ten foe @Maryland. However, since then it’s been all downhill for the lads from East Lansing, as they’re 1-6 over the last seven games, with just a surprising 32-20 upset of Iowa being the lone exception to their futility. While MSU ranks 29th in defensive SP+, their 117th ranked offense has been plagued by 18 turnovers (109th) and a 42.4% red zone TD rate that ranks 130th in FBS.
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Game Details and How to watch Purdue @ Michigan State
· Date: Friday, November 22, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Spartan Stadium
· City: East Lansing, MI
· TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Purdue @ Michigan State - Week 13
The latest odds from BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Michigan State (-550), Purdue (+400)
- Spread: Michigan State -13.5
- Over/Under: 47.5 points
This line dropped at Michigan State -14.5 but has since crossed the key number -14 and sits at a range of -12.5 to -13.5. We’ve gotten slight improvement on the Purdue moneyline from +400 to a stray +425 despite the two-point move in their favor on the spread. The game total has fallen from an open of 48.5 to 47.5.
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NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Both of these programs are starved for a Big Ten win, especially Purdue. However, the Boilermakers have not been able to stay within a 17-point margin of any FBS programs besides Northwestern and Illinois. On the other side, Michigan State is 1-6 over their last seven contests and just got crushed 38-16 by the aforementioned Illinois. With each of these teams possessing truly awful defenses, i’m holding my nose and backing the Over 47.5 points.”
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Georgia +800 to +500
· Alabama +800 to +750
· Indiana +3000 to +2500
Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 13.7%
· Texas 11.4%
· Georgia 10.6%
Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 16.5%
· Georgia 15.5%
· Texas 11.6%
Biggest Liabilities
· Colorado
· Ohio State
· Tennessee
Quarterback matchup for Purdue @ Michigan State
- Michigan State: QB Aiden Chiles transferred over with HC Jonathan Smith as part of the Oregon State-to-Michigan State offseason transition. He is having trouble adjusting to the strength of Big Ten defenses, completing 58.7% of his throws with a terrible 9-to-18 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate. His lack of polish really shows when the field is shortened, with MSU ranking 129th in points per scoring opportunity (3.34) and 130th in red zone touchdown rate (42.4%) to go with nine interceptions. While his 64th percentile PFF passing grade leaves much to be desired, Chiles has been adept at using his legs to extend plays and scramble for extra yardage, as his 84th percentile PFF run grade will attest. Chiles has a long way to go to prove he can be a complete Big Ten quarterback, but there is major upside here.
- Purdue: Hudson Card transferred in from Texas last year following the arrival of Quinn Ewers and the commitment of Arch Manning. He started the first five games in 2023, completing 64% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt and a respectable 75th percentile PFF passing grade. When OC Graham Harrell was fired after Week 6 this season, Card was demoted which opened the door for redshirt freshman Ryan Browne to take over. Browne has completed 61% of his throws for 8.2 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio to go with a strong 85.3 offensive grade. The freshman performed admirably against Illinois (91st% game grade) but his inexperience was exposed versus a stout Oregon defense, so the team turned back to Card who completed 9-of-19 passes for 108 yards and an interception against Ohio State. Last week against Penn State, Card started but both Browne and Christian Gelov took snaps under center. So, we will likely see Purdue play multiple quarterbacks against the Spartans.
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Betting trends & recent stats
- Michigan State has tightened up their rush defense, allowing just 1.98 yards after contact (10th) with a 38.5% rushing success rate (32nd). Unfortunately, the Spartans’ pass defense ranks 107th in EPA/dropback, so Purdue’s dreary pass offense has a chance to get rolling.
- Michigan State is 2-4 (.333) against the spread when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season, tied for 12th-worst among Power Four programs. (Avg .490)
- Purdue running backs have rushed for 1,197 yards on 215 carries (5.6 YPC) this season, which is the 31st-best among FBS RBs. Michigan State’s defense allows just 4.2 YPC to opposing RBs this season, 21st-best among FBS defenses.
- Purdue TEs have accrued 662 yards on 50 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season (thanks, Max Klare), the best mark among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense allows 13.0 YPR to tight ends this season, tied for 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
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