Pittsburgh is somewhat quietly 7-0 and tied with Miami atop the ACC standings, as their favorable 79th ranked strength of schedule has helped Pitt emerge unscathed through the first half. HC Pat Narduzzi is fielding another stifling run defense that ranks 15th in EPA/rush and 2nd in yards before contact allowed. Pitt’s secondary is holding their own as well, ranking 28th in yards per dropback, which is aided by a ferocious 40% pressure rate that ranks 10th nationally. As if that weren’t enough, the Panthers’ offense ranks Top 10 in yards per successful play, explosive play rate and red zone touchdown rate. They enter a tough three game stretch against @SMU, Virginia and Clemson with their QB Eli Holstein having left their previous game with a concussion.
SMU (7-1) is in the midst of their first season in the ACC, and they’re proving to be unruly guests after opening their Atlantic Coast Conference tenure 4-0 following a narrow 28-27 victory over @Duke. That win wraps up a challenging three game road trip against @Louisville, @Stanford and @Duke that had an exhausted Mustangs crisscrossing the country. Now that they’re back home for three of their final four contests, SMU and their 12th ranked SP+ offense will focus on undefeated Pitt. QB Kevin Jennings is questionable to play in the contest, though there is optimism that he can suit up and give it a go which is a situation to be closely monitored leading up to kickoff.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Pittsburgh @ SMU live
· Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
· City: Dallas, TX
· TV/Streaming: ACC Network
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Game odds for Pittsburgh @ SMU - Week 10
The latest odds as of Friday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: SMU (-275), Pitt (+225)
- Spread: SMU -7.5
- Over/Under: 57.5 points
This pivotal ACC showdown opened at SMU -6.5 but has since crossed the key number of -7 and is listed almost everywhere at -7.5 at time of print. The SMU moneyline opened at -270, and while it’s dropped to -315 in some spots, you can still get -275 if you shop. The game total has fallen from an initial line of 59.5 down to a fairly settled 57.5.
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NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Pitt and SMU are close enough in terms of talent and execution that I feel like this game should be closer to a field goal if QB Eli Holstein plays, as he is rumored to. I’m taking the +7.5 points and taking the road team Pitt.”
BetMGM College Football Highlights: Week 10
“The Big Ten will determine our weekend. Ohio State covering in Happy Valley against Penn State is what we need the most. An upset by either Michigan or Michigan State as big home underdogs would be massive.” - Michael Ranftle, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
Most bet games (tickets)
- Ohio State at Penn State
- Oregon at Michigan
- Indiana at Michigan State
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Penn State +3.5
- Indiana -8
- Oregon -14.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Penn State +3.5
- Indiana -8
- Oregon -14.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
- Ohio State at Penn State 46.5
- Air Force at Army 41.5
- Oregon at Michigan 44.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
- Texas A&M at South Carolina 44.5
- Ole Miss at Arkansas 53.5
- Kansas State at Houston 45.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
- Penn State +135
- Illinois +120
- Michigan +500
Quarterback matchup for Pittsburgh @ SMU
- Pittsburgh: Eli Holstein originally enrolled at Alabama as a heralded four-star recruit, but when Jalen Milroe took hold of the Tide’s quarterback job, Holstein transferred to Pitt and beat out Nate Yarnell for the QB job. He’s been a revelation leading Pitt to 35.5 points per game (19th) and an unblemished 7-0 record. He’s completing 64% of his throws for 8.4 yards per attempt with a 17-to-5 ratio for new OC Kade Bell. Despite the success there is room for improvement with Holstein, with him earning a pedestrian 56th% PFF passing grade and 9-to-14 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate. He sustained a concussion last Thursday and was knocked out of the game, but he is considered probable to play against SMU.
- SMU: Preston Stone led the Mustangs’ offense last year, but in fall camp was overtaken by QB Kevin Jennings who eventually won the job outright after splitting time in the early going. Jennings is completing 64.5% of his throws at a 9.3 yards per attempt clip with a 10-to-5 ratio and 101.9 NFL passer rating. He also has rushed 67 times for 321 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, adding a dual-threat dimension that the 2023 offense did not possess. His ability to create with his legs will be vital against a stout Pitt run D that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the ACC (657 rush yards). Jennings is listed as questionable to play with a leg injury, but the SMU staff seems confident that he can suit up.
Betting trends & recent stats for the Pitt Panthers and the SMU Mustangs
- Pittsburgh has created an explosive pass play (20+) on 12% of their pass attempts this season, 34th in FBS. SMU’s defense has allowed explosive pass plays on just 7.8% of attempts, 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
- Pitt wideouts have secured eight red zone receiving touchdowns, which ranks 1st in the ACC. SMU has allowed 11 red zone receiving touchdowns, the most among ACC defenses.
- SMU RB Brashard Smith has produced an explosive rush (20+) on 10 of his 116 carries this season, good for an 8.6% explosive play rate that ranks third among P4 ball carriers. (Kaleb Johnson #1 at 13.7%)
- SMU has tackled opponents for a loss on 50-of-260 (19% TFL rate) rush attempts this season, 27th-best in FBS.
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