Ohio State’s (8-1) is defeating opponents by an average scoring margin of 28 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking Top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The only statistical area of weakness is OSU allowing a 61.8% completion rate, which ranks 78th nationally. The Buckeyes are facing the third-fewest number of deep passes in the country, with just 8.2% of passes defended occurring 20+ yards downfield. Ohio State emerged 2-1 from a challenging three game mid-season stretch against @Oregon (32-31 L), Nebraska (21-17 W) and @Penn State (20-13). They close the season with two pivotal home games against Indiana (9–0) and Michigan (5-4) that have major CFP Playoff ramifications.
Northwestern (4-5) has taken their lumps over their first eight games, going just 2-5 against Power Four opponents while carrying a lowly 3-6 ATS record. Their lone Big Ten victory came in a 37-10 blowout over @Maryland, but the Wildcats recorded a gruesome 0%-win expectancy in each of their other four B10 contests before beating 1-8 Purdue 26-20 last weekend. An inefficient offense is the team’s biggest area of weakness, ranking 127th in EPA/play and 128th in points per scoring opportunity. Defensively, HC David Braun is fielding a stout unit, ranking 29th in SP+ in addition to 10th in yards per successful rush allowed and 11th in 20+ yard completion rate (11.8%).
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to watch Ohio State @ Northwestern
· Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Wrigley Field
· City: Chicago, IL
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Ohio State @ Northwestern courtesy of BetMGM
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
- Moneyline: Ohio State (-9,000), Northwestern (+2,500)
- Spread: Ohio State (-28.5)
- Over/Under: 44.5 points
While Ohio State opened as a -30.5 favorite, that spread proved to be a little too high for the public’s liking, with the line dropping to -28.5 across the board. Few books are daring to post moneyline action due to the lopsided nature of the contest, with the best prices being -8,000 for OSU and +4,000 on Northwestern. The game total stands at the same 44.5 it opened at, with a couple of stray 43.5’s out there as well.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Ohio State shutout a terrible Purdue team (1-8) 45-0 last game, but allowed Michigan State, Marshall and Akron to get in the end zone against them. Northwestern is a 4-win team that put up 37 on Maryland, 14 against Iowa and 24 vs. Indiana. I think the Wildcats clear their very reasonable team total of 6.5 points.”
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Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Northwestern
- Ohio State: Hard to argue with fifth-year QB Will Howard’s decision to transfer from Kansas State to Ohio State, as he currently leads the nation’s eighth-ranked SP+ offense for a Top 5 national title contending program. He’s completing a scintillating 74% of his throws and is working with another elite group of OSU pass catchers, headlined by the next Julio Jones - Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ pass game ranks 2nd in success rate and 6th in EPA/dropback despite throwing just 9.6% of passes 20+ yards downfield (125th). Howard’s 84th percentile PFF passing grade is the highest mark of his five-year career, with the previous best being 72.7%.
- Northwestern: QB Jack Lausch leads a listless passing attack that ranks 120th in success rate and 124th in passing explosiveness with a 53.6% completion rate. He sports a 5-4 ratio and has done a commendable job avoiding sacks with a 15.0% pressure-to-sack rate, which is key since the Wildcats’ offensive line is allowing a troubling 34% pressure rate (94th). Lausch has a respectable 68th% PFF passing grade that is coupled with the second-lowest completion rate among P4 signal callers. Lausch is coming off his best performance of the season, completing 66% of his 35 passes for 250 yards and a 1-0 ratio against Purdue.
Betting trends & recent stats
- Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 261 attempts this season -- T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.0% of attempts this season -- T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
- Generational freshman WR Jeremiah Smith has 6 Red Zone touchdown receptions this season, 2nd-most among Power Four skill players. TreVeyon Henderson is running for 10+ yards on 27% of his carries (21/78), the highest mark in FBS.
- Northwestern RB Cam Porter is averaging 4.5 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, which ranks 103rd out of 114 qualifying Power Conference Running Backs.
- QB Jack Lausch has converted 16% of his third-down situations this season, which is the second-lowest rate among P4 quarterbacks. (Brock Glenn = #1 at 15%)
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 14.0%
- Texas 11.5%
- Georgia 10.6%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 17.7%
- Georgia 16.3%
- Texas 11.4%
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