Northwestern (3-5) has taken their lumps over their first eight games, going just 1-5 against Power Four opponents while carrying a lowly 2-6 ATS record. Their lone Big Ten victory came in a 37-10 blowout over @Maryland, but the Wildcats recorded a gruesome 0% win expectancy in each of their other four B10 contests. The offense is the crux of the team’s problems, ranking 129th in EPA/play and 132nd in points per scoring opportunity in addition to 126th in EPA/dropback. Defensively is another matter, with Northwestern’s balanced D ranking 10th yards per successful rush allowed and 17th in 20+ yard completion rate (11.8%).
Purdue (1-6) has yet to defeat a FBS opponent and is coming off a deflating 35-0 shutout at the hands of undefeated Oregon. Their best moment came in a spirited comeback versus @Illinois where they accrued 49 points, but still fell to the Illini 50-49 despite a 75% win expectancy. Purdue relies on a strong rushing offense that ranks 7th in yards per successful play (11.9 yards) and 18th in yards before contact. However they are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the country that rates 130th in EPA/rush and 132nd in yards per dropback allowed.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Northwestern @ Purdue
· Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Ross-Ade Stadium
· City: West Lafayette, IN
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Northwestern @ Purdue
The latest odds from BetMGM as of Thursday:
- Moneyline: Northwestern (-115), Purdue (-100)
- Spread: Northwestern (-1.5)
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
Purdue actually opened as a (-1.5) favorite, but that line was hammered down to (+1.5) at time of publishing. The moneyline has held relatively stable, in addition to the total that opened at 46 and now sits at 46.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“With both defenses struggling to contain opposing offenses, and QB Ryan Browne giving Purdue a dual-threat option at QB, I think the Over 46.5 points is worth a look.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Georgia +350 to +325
- Oregon +500 to +450
- Texas A&M +3000 to +2200
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 14.5%
- Texas 12.0%
- Georgia 11.1%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 18.9%
- Georgia 17.0%
- Texas 11.7%
Biggest Liabilities
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Northwestern @ Purdue
- Northwestern: QB Jack Lausch leads a listless passing attack that ranks 127th in success rate and 120th in passing explosiveness with a 53% completion rate. He sports a 4-4 ratio and has done a commendable job avoiding sacks with a 15.7% pressure-to-sack rate, which is important since the Wildcats are allowing a 34% pressure rate (95th). While Lausch has been fairly underwhelming thus far, earning a middling 58th% PFF passing grade with the second-lowest completion rate among P4 signal callers, he’s still an upgrade from opening day starter Mike Wright.
- Purdue: Hudson Card transferred in from Texas where his services were no longer needed following the arrival of Quinn Ewers and the commitment of Arch Manning. He started the first five games of the season, completing 64% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt and a decent 75th percentile PFF passing grade. When OC Graham Harrell was fired after Week 6, Card was demoted as well which opened the door for redshirt freshman Ryan Browne to take over. Browne has completed 61% of his throws for 8.2 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio to go with a strong 85.3 offensive grade. He performed extremely well against Illinois (91st% game grade) but struggled in his last start versus a stout Oregon defense.
Trends & recent stats for Purdue and Northwestern
- Northwestern is allowing 21 completions per game, third lowest among Big Ten teams, while Purdue is completing 15 passes per game which is the fourth lowest among B10 programs.
- QB Jack Lausch has converted 16% of his third-down situations this season, which is the second-lowest rate among P4 quarterbacks. (Bock Glenn = #1 at 15%)
- Purdue has thrown for 1,196 passing yards in seven games (171 YPG) which ranks 120th among FBS programs, while Northwestern is allowing 234 passing yards per game, 93rd nationally.
- Purdue is allowing 20+ yard gains on 16% of their pass attempts (27-of-171), the second highest big play rate among Power Four programs. Kentucky has allowed the highest 20+ yard completion rate among P4 programs at 16.6%.
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