Minnesota (6-3) started out the season on a down-note, losing a 19-17 heartbreaker to UNC where they had an 86% post-game win expectancy before dumping their first two Big Ten games against Iowa and @Michigan. However, since losing a coin-flip 27-24 to the Wolverines, Minnesota has rattled off four straight B10 conference victories including a “SoCal Sweep” of USC and UCLA in back-to-back weeks. While the Gophers are effectively mounting drives to the tune of a 46.5% success rate, they’re also one of the least explosive teams in the Power Four, ranking 131st in yards per successful play and 128th in marginal explosiveness. Defensively they’re a topflight unit that ranks 16th in SP+, is inducing 3-and-outs 37.5% of the time (15th) and allows 20+ yard plays at a stingy 4.6% rate (9th in FBS).
There was a strong sense of optimism for a Rutgers (4-4) program that achieved bowl eligibility for just the second time since 2014. The Scarlet Knights stormed through their early season schedule with key victories over @Virginia Tech and Washington as RU opened up with a 4-0 record. However since then Rutgers lost one-score games against @Nebraska and UCLA in addition to getting run out of the building by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4. Offensively RB Kyle Monangai leads a solid run game that ranks 17th in YAC and 41st in EPA/play. Monangai is considered questionable to play in the contest and his status should be monitored. RU is allowing a brutal 51% rushing success rate (11th worst in FBS) while ranking 124th in EPA/rush. Though they’re ranked a decent 46th in SP+ defense, Rutgers has allowed 119 points over their last three games.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!
Game details and how to watch Minnesota @ Rutgers
· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, NJ
· TV/Streaming: NBC
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Game odds for Minnesota @ Rutgers
The latest odds as of Wednesday:
- Moneyline: Minnesota (-250), Rutgers (+195)
- Spread: Minnesota -6.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
This line dropped at Minnesota -4.5 and has shot up to the current -6/6.5 range. The Minny moneyline opened at -225 and is trading in the -230/-250 ballpark. Rutgers’ ML is still pretty close to the +185 open, while the game total has not budged from the initial 46.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Rutgers has been getting destroyed over the last month, scoring 20 or less points in three of their last four games. Minnesota has allowed exactly 17 points in three of their last four contests against USC, @UCLA and @Illinois. I’m backing the 16th ranked Gophers defense and taking the Under on Rutgers’ 20.5 points team total.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +450 to +350
- Miami +1800 to +1100
- Indiana +5000 to +3500
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 14.2%
- Texas 11.6%
- Georgia 10.9%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 18.5%
- Georgia 16.9%
- Texas 11.5%
Biggest Liabilities
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Minnesota @ Rutgers
- Minnesota: UNH transfer Max Brosmer was a Walter Payton Award finalist in 2023 before transferring into Minnesota as former QB Athan Kaliakmanis’ replacement. Brosmer noticeably improved the Gophers’ passing attack, completing 67.5% of his passes with a 13-to-4 ratio and a rock solid 86.5 PFF passing grade that is the 9th highest mark in the entire country! He leads a Minnesota offense that ranks 19th in passing success rate (47.5%), 7th in adjusted completion rate (75%) and 12th with a 1.4% interception rate. HC Fleck’s high-efficiency pass attack is targeting receivers at-or-behind the line 29% of the time (30th), which helps to explain why the Gophers are currently the 132nd ranked team in passing explosiveness.
- Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from ineffective 2023 starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of former Minnesota signal caller Athan Kaliakmanis, who transferred in this offseason. The change of scenery did a world of good for Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt average from 6.2-to-6.8 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 15.6%. However, the biggest quantifiable gain from an advanced statistical perspective is Kaliakmanis boosting his PFF passing grade from 58.2-to-76.8, which is a fraction of a percentage point away from Alabama QB Jalen Milroe’s 77.2 passing grade. The change of scenery has been beneficial from both Kaliakmanis and Minnesota alike. “The Kaliakmanis Bowl” adds another layer of intrigue to this B10 showdown.
Betting Trends & recent stats for Minnesota and Rutgers
- Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when allowing less than 5.0 yards per carry, which is the 3rd-best mark among Power Four programs. (BYU #1 | Indiana #2)
- Gophers QB Max Brosmer is sporting a 79% completion rate in close & late situations, which is the 2nd highest mark in the Big Ten. Rutgers’ defense has allowed a 70% completion rate in close & late situations
- Rutgers has thrown for 20+ yards on just 7.0% of their 242 pass attempts, 10th-lowest among FBS offenses. Minnesota has allowed 20+ yard pass plays on 5.7% of passes defended, the 3rd-best mark among P4 defenses.
- Rutgers ranks 123rd nationally with a 54% completion rate, but rank 11th in FBS averaging 7.8 air yards per completion. The Scarlet Knights are consciously sacrificing accuracy in favor of trying to hit long pass plays.
College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
