LSU led the season off with a disappointing 27-20 loss to USC but have since rebounded to rattle off six straight victories and currently possess a 30% chance to make the 12-team CFP Playoff. Currently 3-0 in SEC play with wins over @South Carolina, @Arkansas and a then undefeated Ole Miss, LSU has a pair of season-defining showdowns on tap against @Texas A&M this week and Alabama in Week 11 after their Bye. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS and somewhat surprisingly 2-5 to the Under despite the team averaging 32 points per game on offense. LSU is fielding the 3rd best offense nationally and, despite some hiccups, is still pitching the 38th SP+ defense. They currently rank 105th in passing success rate allowed with a 65% completion rate, so shoring up the secondary is still very much a work in progress
Similar to LSU, Texas A&M lost their season opener to Notre Dame before going on a six-game undefeated streak to resurrect their CFP Playoff hopes. Since then, Year 1 HC Mike Elko has orchestrated double-digit victories over @Florida, @Mississipi State and a 41-10 evisceration of a previously undefeated Missouri. Defensively the Aggies have been an elite unit that ranks 13th nationally with an elite secondary that is allowing a 54% completion rate (10th) while ranking 15th both explosive pass plays allowed and rushing success rate. Their run game has been the backbone of A&M’s offense ranking 19th in yards after contact and third in stuff rate.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 LSU @ Texas A&M live
· Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: Kyle Field
· City: College Station, TX
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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Game odds for LSU @ Texas A&M - Week 9
The latest odds as of Thursday:
- Moneyline: LSU (+115), Texas A&M (-135)
- Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
- Over/Under: 53.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
This game opened at the key number Texas A&M -3 but has since ticked down to -2.5 across the market. Texas A&M has improved from their initial -162 drop to -135, while LSU’s +136 open has been beaten down to +115. The game total is still trading right around the initial offer of 54 points.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Texas A&M has cleared the 53.5 game total just one time all season against FBS programs, while LSU is 4-2 to the Under against the current number. I think Texas A&M can slow down the pace and keep this game close. I lean the Under 53.5 points in this pivotal SEC conference showdown.”
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Quarterback matchup for LSU @ Texas A&M
- Texas A&M: Former high four-star recruit Conner Weigman has been the Aggies’ starter dating back to his true freshman season of 2022. He had been cruising through the first four games of 2023, earning a pristine 91.9 PFF passing grade with an 8-to-2 ratio before sustaining a season-ending injury. Weigman returned to start the first two games of this season before getting hurt again against McNeese State which cost him the next three games, giving way to freshman QB Marcel Reed until he returned to lay a 41-10 beating on 9th ranked Mizzou. Overall, it’s been a mixed bag for Weigman who is completing 62% of his passes with a 3-to-4 ratio and a middling 61.5 passing grade.
- LSU: Garrett Nussmeier has been groomed for a Power Four starting role from birth, as his father Doug was a longtime NFL backup QB and renowned quarterback coach. Nussmeier had thrown for at least 285 yards in each of his first six games before dipping to 233 yards last week against @Arkansas. He currently ranks third nationally with 284 pass attempts and 15th with an 86th percentile PFF passing grade. Nussmeier is one of just 34 passers with an ADOT of 10.0 or above and ranks seventh in FBS with 18 touchdown passes. He is emerging as a potential first round NFL Draft prospect thanks to his strong play.
Trends & recent stats for LSU and Texas A&M
- LSU’s defense has allowed a stingy 31% completion rate in the red zone thus far, which is the third-best RZ completion rate in the Power Four. South Carolina leads the P4 with a 28% RZ completion rate.
- LSU True Freshman running back Caden Durham is averaging 7.4 scrimmage yards per touch, the highest mark among all SEC ball carriers. Tennessee RB DeSean Bishop checks in at #2 with 7.0 yards per touch.
- Texas A&M ranks last in the SEC with 10-of-216 (4.6%) of rushes they’ve defended going for 20+ yards. Texas’ defense ranks #1 in SEC with 1-of-238 (.4%) rushes developing into explosive run plays.
- The Aggies have allowed a 55% competition rate, which is the best mark among SEC defenses. However, they’ve also allowed six red zone touchdown passes, the most of any SEC program to date.
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Expert picks & predictions for LSU @ Texas A&M
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA Football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, injuries, and the weather.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for the Tigers @ Aggies:
· Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
· Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards laying the points and taking Texas A&M
· Total: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Total of 53.5 points
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- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
