Undefeated Indiana (8-0) managed to overcome an injury to starting QB Kurtis Rourke to soundly defeat Washington 31-17 with an 80% win expectancy. Wake Forest transfer RB Justice Ellison took on the workhorse role in Rourke’s stead, logging a season-high 29 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown. Ellison’s explosion allowed backup QB Tayven Jackson to uncork just 19 passes as HC Cignetti slowed the game down and grinded out the victory over Washington. The Hoosiers have played just two away games to this point and now embark on a challenging three-game stretch against @Michigan State, Michigan and @Ohio State before closing the regular season out versus Purdue.
New HC Jonathan Smith and Michigan State (4-4) opened the year 3-0 with a nice 27-24 Week 2 win over @Maryland, signaling the beginning of a new era in East Lansing. Since the fast start MSU has lost four of their last five games against an absolute gauntlet of upper echelon Big Ten programs Ohio State, @Oregon, Iowa and @Michigan. Though they were not particularly competitive against OSU/Oregon, the Spartans outclassed Iowa 32-20. They’ve had trouble finishing drives, averaging 3.27 points per scoring opportunity (129th) with a 40% red zone touchdown rate (130th). Their 38th ranked SP+ defense ranks 9th in yards after contact allowed and 28th in rushing success rate, but Michigan State’s pass defense is far less dependable, ranking 93rd in EPA/dropback.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Indiana @ Michigan State
· Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: Spartan Stadium
· City: East Lansing, MI
· TV/Streaming: Peacock
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Game odds for Indiana @ Michigan State
The latest odds as of Friday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Indiana (-300), Michigan State (+240)
- Spread: Indiana -7.5
- Over/Under: 51.5 points
This game opened at an even Indiana -7, but quickly added the hook to -7.5 and is even trading at -8 in some spots. We got a -265 moneyline on Indiana at the initial drop, which has plummeted to -335 in some spots, while MSU has improved from +215 to a high of +260. While the total opened at 50.5, it is now almost uniformly listed at -51.5 across the board.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Indiana has been a cover machine, as their 7-1 ATS record will attest, and this -7.5 line is a very reasonable mark considering how dominant the IU defense has been. I’ll lay the points and take the Hoosiers on the road against a mistake prone MSU team.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Highlights: Week 10
“The Big Ten will determine our weekend. Ohio State covering in Happy Valley against Penn State is what we need the most. An upset by either Michigan or Michigan State as big home underdogs would be massive.” - Michael Ranftle, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
Most bet games (tickets)
- Ohio State at Penn State
- Oregon at Michigan
- Indiana at Michigan State
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Penn State +3.5
- Indiana -8
- Oregon -14.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Penn State +3.5
- Indiana -8
- Oregon -14.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
- Ohio State at Penn State 46.5
- Air Force at Army 41.5
- Oregon at Michigan 44.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
- Texas A&M at South Carolina 44.5
- Ole Miss at Arkansas 53.5
- Kansas State at Houston 45.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
- Penn State +135
- Illinois +120
- Michigan +500
Quarterback matchup for Indiana @ Michigan State
- Indiana: Kurtis Rourke helmed the Ohio University offense for four seasons with his exemplary play cresting in 2022 when he completed 69% of his throws for 3,261 passing yards, a 25-to-4 ratio and a sparkling 92nd% PFF offensive grade. Rourke was having the best season of his career, completing 74% of his throws for 10.7 YPA and a 15-to-3 ratio, until a thumb injury caused him to miss last week against Washington. Backup Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson held down the fort last week, with Rourke’s status being very much up in the air for this weekend.
- Michigan State: QB Aidan Chiles followed HC Jonathan Smith from Oregon State to MSU after spending a year as DJ Uiagalelei’s understudy. He’s been learning on the job in his first campaign as a starter, completing 60% of his throws for 8.0 YPA with a pedestrian 64th% passing grade. Most troubling is the fact Chiles has the highest interception rate in the country, throwing one pick for every 23 pass attempts. He has been aggressive pushing the ball downfield, with 26 of his 205 pass attempts gaining 20+ yards, which ranks fourth among Big Ten signal callers with a 13% big play rate. (Rourke #1 = 18%)
Trends & recent stats for Indiana and Michigan State
- Indiana leads the nation with 20 red zone rushing touchdowns, while WR Elijah Sarratt has gained 20+ yards on 13-of-33 receptions, 2nd-best among P4 skill players.
- Indiana’s defense has tackled opponents for a loss on 7-of-26 (27%) red zone rushing attempts, the highest red zone TFL rate in the Big Ten.
- Michigan State has thrown for 20+ yards on 12.4% of 226 team pass attempts, 27th-best in FBS. Indiana’s defense has allowed 20+ yards on just 6.3% of completions, 8th-best among FBS defenses.
- MSU QB Aidan Chiles has thrown for first downs on 5-of-28 passes in close-and-late situations. His 18% first down rate ranks last among 46 qualifying Power Four quarterbacks.
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