Illinois (7-3) jumped out to a 4-0 start with quality wins over Kansas and Nebraska before running into a stout Penn State defense that held the Illini to 34 rushing yards and 219 total yards in the contest. They barely escaped with a 50-49 win over 1-9 Purdue (25%-win expectancy) and beat an offense-averse Michigan team, before getting destroyed by Oregon 38-9 and losing a coin-flip one score game to Minnesota. The Illini have been fairly projectable thus far, losing to every team they faced with a winning record and beating every program who is currently .500 or worse. Their offense is built around a conservative passing attack that sacrifices chunk plays (107th in pass explosiveness) in favor of consistency (34th in pass success rate) and security, with Illinois ranking 2nd in FBS with a 1.0% interception rate. The biggest issue on D is a morose run defense that ranks 130th in rushing success rate and 134th in stuff rate. Fortunately, their secondary has held up well, ranking 27th in yards per successful pass play allowed while restricting opponents to just 5.4 yards per completion (102nd).
The Scarlet Knights (6-4) barnstormed through their early season schedule with notable victories over @Virginia Tech and Washington, opening with a 4-0 record. However, since then Rutgers dropped one-score decisions against @Nebraska and UCLA in addition to getting crushed by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4. A much-needed Week 10 Bye helped RU recalibrate, as they proceeded to beat Minnesota and @Maryland the last two weeks to achieve bowl eligibility. Offensively RB Kyle Monangai heads up a decent run game that ranks 16th in YAC and 54th in EPA/rush but struggles to hit big plays ranking 103rd in yards per successful rush. Conversely, the Scarlet Knights are allowing a brutal 50.6% rushing success rate (126th in FBS) while ranking 125th in EPA/rush allowed. Despite a porous front line, Rutgers is still fielding the 32nd defense in FBS according to SP+.
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Game details and how to watch Illinois at Rutgers
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· Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024
· Time: 12:00 AM EST
· Site: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, NJ
· TV/Streaming: Peacock
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Game odds for Illinois at Rutgers
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
- Moneyline: Illinois (-115), Rutgers (-105)
- Spread: Fighting Illini -1
- Over/Under: 47.5 points
This game opened with Rutgers slightly favored at -1 but has since flipped to Illinois -1 with a couple of books taking the leap to -1.5. The moneyline hasn’t moved appreciably from each team’s initial -110 drop, while the 47.5-point game total has ticked up slightly from an open of 47.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I think Illinois is balanced enough on each side of the ball to exploit Rutgers’ defensive weakness. The Illini rarely turn the ball over and do an excellent job of limiting big plays, so I am backing Illinois on the moneyline to beat the Scarlet Knights on the road.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Insights: Odds to make Playoffs
Line movement (Open to Now)
- Indiana +15000 to -500
- Tennessee +180 to -135
- Colorado +2000 to -120
Highest Ticket%
- Tennessee 5.0%
- Iowa 4.8%
- Utah 4.8%
Highest Handle%
- Texas 10.1%
- Indiana 6.4%
- Alabama 5.7%
Biggest Liability
- Indiana
- Colorado
- Army
Quarterback matchup for Illinois at Rutgers
- Illinois: QB Luke Altymer spent his first two seasons at Ole Miss until it became clear that Jaxson Dart was HC Lane Kiffin’s preferred choice, transferring to Illinois in 2023 and being named starter for the season opener. Dart has taken a step this year, throwing for 2,132 yards, 7.5 YPA (6.9 last year) and a rock solid 18-to-3 ratio (13-to-10 LY). Altmyer’s 75.1 PFF passing grade ranks 56th out of 92 qualifying signal callers, which is a grade on par with notable P5 QBs like Noah Fifita, Nico Iamaleava and Brendan Sorsby. Illinois’ passing attack ranks 34th in success rate (45.3%) and 28th in yards per completion (6.5) under Altmyer’s guidance, offsetting a lackluster run game that ranks 89th in success rate.
- Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from woeful 2023 starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of transferring in former Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The change of scenery did wonders for Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt average from 6.2-to-7.0 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 14.2%. To put it in perspective, Kaliakmanis boosted his PFF passing grade from 58.2-to-77.9, which ranks 42nd out of 92 FBS qualifiers. RU can achieve a rare 8-win season if they can knock off @Rutgers and @Northwestern in their final two regular season contests.
Trends & recent stats
- Luke Altmyer (ILL) has thrown for first downs on 44% of his pass attempts on third and 10+ yards to go this season-- 3rd-best among FBS Quarterbacks; Miami QB Cam Ward leads the nation with a 47.6% third and 10+ conversion rate.
- Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 37 of 334 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season-- 11th-worst in FBS; Ole Miss leads the nation with a 26.5% TFL rate.
- RU is tackling opponents for a loss on 13.3% of the rush attempts they’ve faced, 56th out of 67 Power Four teams. They are allowing an average of 7.3 yards and an 85% conversion rate in third-and-short situations.
- Rutgers Skill Players have caught just 168 of 297 passes this season, as their 56.6% catch rate amounting to the third-worst mark among Power Conference Teams. Florida State ranks last with a 51.4% catch rate (148 recs on 288 targets).
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