Texas (11-1) is having their best regular season in recent memory, with their only blemish was SEC powerhouse Georgia handing them a 30-15 loss so far. UT achieved a 96%+ win expectancy in every victory except for a slow-paced 20-10 rock fight against @Arkansas (52%). Offensively, the Longhorns rank 4th in SP+, 8th in rushing success rate and 11th in EPA/dropback. HC Steve Sarkisian is a well-established offensive play caller who has the benefit of falling back on the nation’s 2nd rated defense. UT’s elite secondary ranks 1st in yards per dropback allowed (4.0) and 2nd in EPA/dropback, while their rush D ranks 12th in EPA/rush but also is allowing an elevated 43.3% rushing success rate (73rd).
Georgia (10-2) steamrolled Clemson 34-3 in the opener before squeezing out a coin-flip 13-12 win over Kentucky to open 3-0. A disastrous, interception-laden first half for QB Carson Beck caused their first loss to Alabama in Week 4. UGA rebounded to soundly defeat Texas in Austin 30-15 in their signature victory of the season, despite another three-interception performance by QB Carson Beck. They overcame a first half scare from Florida to secure a 34-20 victory before suffering a thorough 28-10 loss to @Ole Miss. Georgia’s rushing offense isn’t as dangerous as past years, ranking a lowly 119th in yards per successful rush (8.3 yards) to go with 2.45 YAC (82nd), as UGA’s RB room has been hampered by injury attrition. One of the more pass-heavy Power Four programs, the Bulldogs rank 122nd in standard downs run rate (48%) and 117th in passing down run percentage (25%). Defensively UGA ranks 13th in SP+ but has been beatable in the trenches (52nd EPA/rush/102nd stuff rate) and is lacking playmaking from their back line (130th in DB havoc rate).
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Game Details and How to Watch the SEC Championship: Georgia vs Texas
· Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024
· Time: 4:00 PM EST
· Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· City: Atlanta, GA
· TV/Streaming: ABC
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Game odds for SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Texas
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Texas (-140), Georgia (+120)
- Spread: Texas (-2.5)
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
This game opened at Texas (-1.5/-118 ML) but has since risen to (-2.5/-140) as the public pushes this line closer to the key number of -3. Georgia’s moneyline price has improved from (-102) to (+120), while the game total has been hovering around 48.5 to 49.5 since the open.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Georgia is a staggering 3-9 against the spread, while Texas has gone Under their allotted game total in 9-of-12 contests. UGA already soundly beat the Longhorns in Austin earlier this season, and now get them in Atlanta for a de facto home game. Throw in the hampered mobility of Texas QB Quinn Ewers due to a balky ankle, and I am taking the Bulldogs moneyline at +120.”
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Georgia and Texas: Betting Trends & Recent Stats
- Texas is throwing to running backs on 22.5% of team pass attempts, 15th-most in FBS. Quintrevion Wisner has been targeted 42 times this season, 2nd-most among SEC running backs.
- Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 402 attempts this season, 8th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season, 29th-best among FBS defenses.
- Texas QBs have completed 18 passes of 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season, the most among FBS teams.
- Texas is winless (0-3) against the spread when in a one score game this season, tied for the worst mark among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .441)
- Texas has allowed 92.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season, best in the SEC.
- Georgia’s offensive line ranks 4th nationally with a 21.7% pressure rate allowed and 25th with a 3.6% sack rate. However, they also rank 69th allowing a 19.5% sacks-per-pressure rate and 3.7 penalties a game, which ranks 65th overall.
- Georgia is 2-8 (.200) against the spread when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season, 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; (Average: .467)
- UGA RB Nate Frazier has rushed for 20+ yards on just 1 of his 123 carries this season, 3rd-worst among Power Conference Running Backs. TCU RB Cam Cook ranks last with 0 explosive runs in 119 carries.
- QB Carson Beck has thrown 18 TD passes in the Red Zone this season, 3rd-most among Power Four Quarterbacks. Miami QB Cam Ward leads the P4 with 20 RZ TD passes.
Quarterback matchup for Georgia vs. Texas
- Texas: The Longhorns boast one of the most loaded QB rooms in the country between starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 67.2% of his throws for 2,303 yards, 7.6 YPA and a 24-to-7 ratio. Despite the respectable numbers, his PFF passing grade of 67.4 is a drastic departure from his 85.6 passing grade from a year ago. Ewers is averaging a noticeably low 7.2 air yards per target, which ranks 92nd out of 93 qualifying signal callers, as HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative in the pass game now that he has a certifiably elite defense to lean on.
- Georgia: Heading into the season QB Carson Beck led all returning FBS signal callers with 3,949 passing yards and was 2nd with a 91.5 PFF offensive grade. He emerged as a Heisman front-runner who opened at 4-to-1 odds to win college football’s most coveted prize, but the quality of his play has cratered with Beck throwing nine interceptions in the last four games. His 82.4 PFF offensive grade and 12 interceptions are concerning, as is Beck’s dirt-low 32nd% passing grade with a 38.5% completion rate when facing pressure. In spite of his elevated interception rate, the fourth-year field general still threw 28 touchdown passes which is the fifth highest mark among P4 quarterbacks.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Oregon +400 to +350
- Georgia +400 to +450
- Notre Dame +1400 to +900
- Alabama +4000 to +2200
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 13.2%
- Texas 10.9%
- Georgia 10.2%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 16.1%
- Georgia 14.3%
- Alabama 11.7%
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Alabama
- Ohio State
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