Six games into rookie Head Coach DeShaun Foster’s rookie season with UCLA, the Bruins had but one win. However, the Bruins seemed to right the ship with three straight conference wins over Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa. Bowl eligibility was suddenly within reach. UCLA needed two wins in their final three games to go bowling. Following losses to both Washington and USC, however, the only bowling the Bruins will be doing this postseason is at the local Lucky Strike in Hollywood.
The Bruins’ offense has been an issue all season. They are averaging just 320.7 total yards per game which ranks 121st in the FBS. Their run game has been especially troubling averaging just 87.7 yards per game. Their defense has been OK at best allowing 346.3 yards per game to rank 49th in the nation.
The Bruins’ opponent, Fresno State, snapped a 2-game losing streak with a win over Colorado State. The win was the Bulldogs’ 6th of the season and thus Fresno State is now bowl eligible. Similar to the Bruins, Fresno State’s offense has struggled to find its rhythm much of the season and as a result ranks 101st in total yards. Their defense is allowing 349 yards per game.
Statistically, these teams are similar in many areas. The difference to date between them may well be boiled down to one word: efficiency. Fresno State is better at converting possessions into points. The Bulldogs are averaging 27.8 points per game while the UCLA Bruins are scoring an average of just 18.3 points per game.
Fun Fact: Chip Kelly, Rick Neuheisel, and Karl Dorrell each lost to Fresno State in their rookie seasons as the head coach of the Bruins.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game details and how to watch Fresno State at UCLA
· Date: Saturday, November 30, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: The Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, CA
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Fresno State at UCLA
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Fresno State Bulldogs (+280), UCLA Bruins (-350)
- Spread: Bruins -9.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
This line sits 0.5 points lower than it opened. Fresno State’s success in this series may have played a part in that dip in the number along with UCLA’s campaign for a bowl bid ending last weekend.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
“The game total is set at 46.5 points. This is a Total each team has exceeded in 6 of their 11 games. UCLA’s stagnant offense and stingy defense suggest the Game Total UNDER is the play. This, however, is the week to be the contrarian. UCLA has had issues on offense, but this is a Fresno State team that gave up 36 points to Air Force. On offense, the Bulldogs may now have a strong option running the ball in the emerging Bryson Donelson who ran for 150 yards in the win over Colorado State last week. With zero on the line, it would not be surprising to see the Bruins actually execute better on offense. May have to hold my nose a little, but the lean is to the OVER on the Game Total.”
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Quarterback matchup for Fresno State at UCLA
- Bulldogs: Mikey Keene was 20-28 for 181 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs in Saturday’s win over Colorado State. For the season, the junior has thrown for 2,668 yards with 17 TDs and 11 INTs.
- Bruins: Ethan Garbers was 20-29 for 265 yards with 1 TD in UCLA’s loss to the Trojans Solid numbers, but Garbers faltered with 5 minutes remaining in the 4th with the Bruins trailing the Trojans. The senior threw four consecutive incomplete passes and that as they say was that. Has been pressured consistently all season thanks to a leaky offensive line. In the last 2 weeks alone, Garbers has been sacked 9 times.
Fresno State at UCLA betting trends & recent stats
· UCLA has hit the Game Total UNDER in 5 of their last 6 home games.
· UCLA has only hit the Game Total OVER in 1 of their last 6 games at home.
· UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total OVER in 8 of their last 13 games.
· UCLA has led at the half just 4 times in their last 13 games.
· Fresno State has hit the Game Total UNDER in 7 of their last 13 games.
· Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total UNDER in 3 of their last 6 road games.
BetMGM College Football Highlights from Week 13
Indiana at Ohio State was by far the most bet game this past Saturday. At BetMGM, there were 4X the number of bets on Indiana (+325) to win than any other team. Colorado and Ole Miss were popular plays with the public and so when they lost outright to Kansas and Florida accordingly, the sportsbooks probably cracked a smile.
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Ohio State-Indiana (2.5X as many bets as any other game)
2. Colorado-Kansas
3. Ole Miss-Florida
Most bet teams (tickets)
1. Ohio State -10.5
2. Colorado -2.5
3. Ole Miss -11.5
Most bet teams (handle)
1. Ohio State -10.5
2. Colorado -2.5
3. Ole Miss -11.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
1. Indiana +325
2. Army +500
3. Kansas +125
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Ohio State +320 to +275
· Georgia +500 to +400
· Texas +500 to +450
Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 13.4%
· Texas 11.1%
· Georgia 10.5%
Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 15.9%
· Georgia 14.9%
· Alabama 12.1%
Biggest Liabilities
· Colorado
· Ohio State
· Alabama
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