Wednesday Night Props Special:
Diego Pavia, QB New Mexico State - Over 215.5 Passing Yards | Alt Line 275.5 (+425) | 90+ rush yards (+330)
Former Minnesota HC Jerry Kill took over the Aggies’ moribund program last year and, despite NMSU going 8-30 in the previous four seasons, instantly achieved their first winning campaign since 2017. This year former TCU OC Tim Beck took over and we’ve seen a drastic increase in passing performance, with New Mexico State going from 187 passing yards per game last year to 259 passing YPG thus far in 2023.
Believe it or not NMSU’s offense has been the backbone of this team with a strong 48.6% success rate (19th) while averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt (20th) and ranking a sky-high 18th in EPA/Play. Fortunately for us, their defense is still a work in progress, ranking 104th against the pass and 110th in success rate (44.7%), which should help UTEP’s offense stay competitive despite the Miners averaging just 16 points per game. Their 27-14 victory over a punchless FIU gives us hope for a competitive back and forth contest, as UTEP accrued 441 total yards and 302 through the air last game, 223 of which went to Texas El-Paso’s #1 wideout, Kelly Akharaiyi.
With Pavia emerging as a rock solid College Fantasy QB thanks to the RPO-heavy scheme that takes advantage of his fleet feet (95+ rushing yards in three of his last four), the passing lanes are open for him to take advantage. The only two games in which Pavia didn’t at least eclipse 200 passing yards were against Liberty and Hawaii, both losses. He threw for 286 last week against Sam Houston State and 256 the week prior vs. FIU. I’m comfortable taking Pavia’s passing over 215.5 Passing Yards, but also think there is significant ALT line value here as well, with 90+ rushing yards returning +330 (hit 3 of his last 4) and 275+ passing yards bringing in +425 money on DK. The DK pass ALT line has a ton of value right now too, as his FanDuel ALT line is only +230.
I’m also taking a piece of Marcus Bellon, WR, UTEP’s Under 26.5 Receiving Yards, as Bellon ran just 10 routes as a slot-only option last game, catching just one pass on his lone target for 14 yards. He’s failed to clear 26.5 in three of his four games this season and is the clear tertiary option behind Ballard and Akharaiyi.
Katin Houser, QB, Michigan State vs. Michigan - Under 159.5 Passing Yards
DK has the best line for this prop, as i’m seeing 151.5 in a few other places. This is a play on principle as Houser is making just his second career start, with his first start coming last week against Rutgers where he managed to complete 18-of-29 passes for 135 yards and two touchdowns in a checkdown-riffic performance where he posted a dirt-low 7.4 ADOT. If that weren’t enough, Houser falls apart when pressured as is indicated by his 36% pressure-to-sack rate. That is a horrible metric against a marauding Michigan Defense that ranks fifth nationally in PFF pass rush grade.
In honor of this play, I give you the incomparable Dr. Seuss:
“And then Michigan went BUMP!
How that bump made him jump!
Then we saw a panic attack!
He looked!
And we saw him!
the Katin The Hat!
And he said to us,
“Why do I stay in the pocket like that?”
I know it’s scary
When the pass rush gets hairy
But how can I have fun
When i’m always on the run?”
Buy your kids a copy of “Katin the Hat” by your humble correspondent with your winnings on his Under 159.5 Passing Yards prop.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan - Under 231.5 Passing Yards
Piggybacking on Katin the Hat, JJ has failed to clear 231.5 Pass Yards in each of his last five games, only beating it against ECU (280) and UNLV (278) in the first two games of the year. Since entering Big Ten play, Michigan has been content to bully Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana to the extent that McCarthy has topped out at a paltry 21 pass attempts in their last 5 games. I cannot imagine a turmoil-ridden Spartans team with a neophyte QB making his second career start is going to push the Men of Michigan to have to put the ball in the air more than 20 times. I just grabbed the Over 231.5 Passing Yards line on BetRivers, which is seven yards higher than any other book out there at the moment. That’s not going to last, so jump on it NOW.
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Nico Ragaini, WR, Iowa vs. Minnesota - Under 23.5 Receiving Yards
I’m personally appalled that we are getting an Iowa wide receiver listed at all after Deacon “Blues” Hill threw for a seemingly impossible 37 yards last game, never mind the fact that Ragaini hasn’t cleared 18 receiving yards in his last six games. I understand that Tight Ends Luke Lachey and Erick All are both incapacitated, but Iowa has effectively abandoned the passing game with the “Hefty Righty” Hill (billed at 258 LBs) at the helm. I suppose OC Brian Ferentz might try to stoke their passing offense that ranks 126th nationally in overall performance, averaging 5.1 yards per pass attempt (129th) while ranking dead-last in FBS in EPA/Play. Sure, Minnesota’s porous D ranks 96th nationally, but both teams are in the bottom-10 nationally in pace and the 32.5 game total is lower than the 36.5 O/U posted on Air Force vs. Navy this week. When service academies have higher game totals that you, it’s time to take some Unders. With only one WR listed on the Iowa side, Ragaini’s Under 23.5 is the play. I bet it comes down a bit too, opening a potential Middle opportunity.
