Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why he’s backing the home team in a battle between the UTEP Miners and Florida International Panthers.
UTEP at FIU (-3): O/U 44.5
UTEP beat FIU last season, 40-6, but how things have changed this season. UTEP was a -2 favorite, but FIU is now a -3 home favorite after the sharps or the public got ahold of the QB situation at UTEP.
The Miners are down to their fourth-string QB as they have had numerous injuries over the past two games. Cade McConnell will make his first start. McConnell went 4-of-11 against Louisiana Tech for 48 yards, which came on the final drive of a blowout loss.
UTEP has one win, but that came over Incarnate Word. The Miners lost all five games to FBS opponents, including the past four.
FIU put together a nice three-game winning streak over Maine, North Texas, and UConn before losing the past outings two versus Liberty and at New Mexico State.
These are two of the worst 25 teams in all of college football, both ranking 100th or worse in a lot of categories. However, the Miners rank 119th in third-down defense (46.8%), 116th in rushing defense (191.5 ypg), and 110th in passing offense (187.7 ypg).
On the road and with a fourth-string QB, UTEP’s numbers shouldn’t improve and we should expect an ugly game. I like the home team against a fourth-string QB making his first career start.
FIU is also looking to avenge the 40-6 loss at UTEP last year. I played FIU on the ML at -118 odds and would go out to -135 at BetMGM. Shop around for the best odds.
Pick: FIU ML (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Season Record: 32-18-1 (64%) +13.52u
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