Vaughn Dalzell breaks down Oregon State vs. Utah, plus three Big Ten team totals worth locking in and sweating out for the College Football Week 5 slate.
Utah at Oregon State (-3.5): O/U 44.5
It’s a Friday night lights matchup between two PAC-12 foes, the Utah Utes and Oregon State Beavers!
Historically, Utah is 4-8 ATS over the last 12 meetings versus Oregon State and the Beavers won the last matchup at home (42-34, 2021).
Utah ranks tied for 109th in first downs offense, 91st in third-down conversions (37.1%) and 119th in passing offense (157.0 ypg). This is also the second road game for Utah, which is concerning.
The Utes needed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to come back and beat the 1-3 Baylor Bears in the lone road game this year. Baylor’s only win came over Long Island University, so that win is unimpressive for Utah.
Utah is 4-0 and impressive on defense, but on the road away from the Utah altitude and facing a Oregon State coming off a loss, expect the Beavers to hand the Utes its first loss of the season.
Now that this spread is at -3.5, I will opt for risking 2 units on the Oregon State ML. The best price I could find was -165.
Pick: Oregon State ML (Risk 2u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Michigan (-17.5) at Nebraska: O/U 39.5
We are running it back on Michigan’s defense as the Wolverines have been one of the best bets all season.
Michigan’s defense permits 5.3 points per game and allowed two touchdowns through four games, both the best in the NCAA.
In Nebraska’s two losses at Minnesota and Colorado, the Cornhuskers scored 10 and 14 points this season, not to mention Nebraska ranks 119th in turnover margin (-5) .
Nebraska scored 3, 29, and 10 points in the last three meetings versus Michigan. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Give me the Nebraska Team Total Under 10.5 at -132 odds. Shop around for the best price and number.
Pick: Nebraska Team Total Under 10.5 (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Penn State (-27.5) at Northwestern: O/U 45.5
Penn State blanked Iowa, 31-0 last weekend, and has a chance to get back-to-back shutouts as the Nittany Lions take on the Northwestern Wildcats.
In three of the past four meetings between Penn State and Northwestern, the Wildcats have scored six or seven points in three of those contests. I don’t see much changing here.
In Northwestern’s two losses, the Wildcats scored seven points at Rutgers and 14 points at Duke. Penn State’s defense should be able to keep Northwestern under two scores. Northwestern has been sacked 11 times in four games (tied 104th), while Penn State is tied-18th with 13 sacks in the same span.
I played Northwestern’s team total Under 9.5 at -108 odds. Shop around for the best number and price. Penn State leads the country in time of possession (37.0 mpg), which should help too.
Pick: Northwestern Team Total Under 9.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Michigan State at Iowa (-12.5): O/U 36.5
Iowa is looking for a bounce-back game at home after the embarrassing 31-0 loss to Penn State, and I think Michigan State coming to town is the perfect remedy.
Michigan State scored seven and nine points in their two losses to Maryland and Washington this season, plus lost 49-7 on the last trip to Iowa (2020).
Michigan State is in limbo and without an offense that can move the ball, we have to continue fading the Spartans somehow. MSU ranks 111th in rushing offense (111.0 ypg), 111th in turnover margin (-4), and 66th on third downs (41.2%).
I played the MSU team total Under 11.5 at -108 odds and would shop around because this will close at 9.5 or 10.5.
This game is on NBC and Peacock so make sure to tune in, in addition to our live NBC College Football Saturday Betting Q&A at 11 AM ET — the link is below!
Pick: Michigan State Team Total Under 11.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Season Record: 24-15 (61.5%) +7.01 units
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