Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet for the Week 4 College Football slate, a homecoming and Big Ten season-opener for Michigan hosting Rutgers.
Rutgers at Michigan (-24): O/U 44.5
Michigan is having its homecoming versus Rutgers this Saturday and Wolverines’ head coach Jim Harbaugh returns after a three-game suspension, so expect the Big House to be rocking between two 2-0 Big Ten teams.
The Wolverines have won 10 consecutive homecoming games and Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 himself in those contests. Michigan has won 28 out of the last 31 overall games and is 8-1 versus Rutgers, including 4-0 at The Big House.
In the four games at Michigan, Rutgers has scored 16, 14, 0, and 13 points for 10.7 points per game. The Scarlett Knights have scored 17 or fewer points in seven out of nine total meetings with the Wolverines.
Rutgers’ defense has been impressive versus lower-scale opponents so far, but this game will be all about how the Scarlett Knights’ offense can’t move the ball.
Michigan’s defense has consecutive games with at least 10 tackles for losses, which should continue against Rutgers’ offensive line. Michigan ranks second in total defense (22.3 ypg), first in scoring defense (5.3 ppg), and has allowed one touchdown in three games, so I don’t expect more than a touchdown from Rutgers’ offense.
The Scarlett Knights’ offense has 403 passing yards through three games and 632 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry. Rutgers ranks 94th in total yards per game (346.3) and 125th in passing yards per game (135.7).
Rutgers will be trailing all game, so I expect the passing attack to look horrific and plenty of sacks. I played the Scarlett Knights Team Total Under 9.5 at -115 odds. I would go down to 7.5 for -110 odds.
Pick: Rutgers Team Total Under 9.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
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