After an 8-1 week, Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why he is running it back on Michigan’s defense to shut down another opponent at The Big House.
Bowling Green at Michigan (-40.5): O/U 53.5
Michigan’s defense has limited UNLV and East Carolina to 10 total points and should look elite once again at home versus Bowling Green.
Bowling Green has former Missouri and Indiana QB Connor Bazelak and he’s struggled in his only FBS game this season, recording 71 passing yards and three interceptions versus Liberty (34-24 loss at Liberty).
After watching that tape, I don’t know how Bazelak moves the ball on Michigan in the Big House. The Wolverines are ranked 13th in total defense (232 YPG) and are one of five teams to allow only one touchdown so far this season (Georgia, Ohio State, Air Force, Syracuse).
The Wolverines have been one of the least penalized teams so far (9 for 65 yards), plus a plethora of upperclassmen and NFL talent on the defensive side of the ball.
On offense, Michigan should be run-heavy here after Liberty went for 249 rushing yards on 49 carries (5.0 ypc) and one touchdown on Bowling Green.
Michigan’s Blake Corum will be a good bet on a rushing prop or touchdown prop, but I don’t think Bowling Green scores a touchdown here.
I rolled with the Falcons Team Total Under 6.5 at -113 odds. I would play this out to -130.
Pick: Bowling Green Team Total Under 6.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
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