Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the highly anticipated rivalry between the Navy Midshipmen and Army Black Knights.
Navy (-2) vs Army: O/U 28.5
Last year the final score between Army and Navy was 20-17 in 2 OT and if you had the opening line of 37.5, then the Under cashed, but most people lost on the closing line for the first time in 16 years thanks to OT (17 points).
Both teams are 17th and 36th in time of possession, top 25 in red zone defense, and 75th or worse in third-down offense. Army has looked much better over the second half of the season, winning three straight entering this game.
Army is 5-6 on the season and a win over rival Navy would make them bow eligible. Army beat Air Force (23-3) to start the winning streak, while Navy lost three of the past five games, including a 17-6 loss to Air Force.
Army will have a true scuffle against Navy’s 21st-ranked third-down defense (32.2%) and 28th-ranked rushing defense (121.9 YPG), but the Black Knights will have the motivation on the defensive front to do the same.
The clock will continue to run in this matchup as both teams rank 128th and 129th in passing yards per game, only ahead of Air Force. I played the Under 28.5 at -120 odds and Under 28.0 at -122 odds. I would do 27.5 or less for 1 unit.
Pick: Under 28.5 (Risk 1.5u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 63-42-1 (60%) +18.21 units
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