Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the best bets for the College Football Week 11 slate, including Michigan vs Penn State and Iowa vs Rutgers.
Michigan (-4) at Penn State: O/U 45.5
I cannot wait to be on the sideline for this Big Ten matchup between Michigan and Penn State! Follow me on Instagram for live reactions from the sideline, behind-the-scenes action and an IG Live during the 4th quarter.
These two teams rank top 15 in time of possession, first-down defense, third-down defense, turnover margin, and total defense. I expect this to be a grind and Michigan to face its biggest and only test of the season.
With that being said, Penn State has some glaring weaknesses like its red-zone defense (T-93rd), offensive passing efficiency (54th), and third-down offense (45th) that Michigan can advantage of.
Michigan won the last two matchups 41-17 and 21-17, plus six of the past nine meetings. Penn State has won two of the last three at home to Michigan, but this Wolverines’ defense gets freshman QB QDrew Allar, which should be enough.
I laid the -4 with Michigan at -110 odds and took the Under on Penn State’s Team Total of 20.5 at -130 odds.
Last week’s loss on Purdue’s Team Total Under was a fluke with Purdue scoring a touchdown with 18 seconds remaining when down by 34. We want our money back.
Pick: Michigan -4 (1u), Penn State Team Total Under (Risk 1.5u)
Rutgers at Iowa (-2): O/U 29.0
These Big Ten squads have met three times since Rutgers joined the conference and the game scores were 27-10, 30-0, and 14-7 -- all Iowa wins.
Iowa reaching 27 or 30 points would be the most outlandish thing to happen here as the Hawkeyes scored 15 or fewer points in the past three games.
Rutgers is coming off a 16 point-game at home against Ohio State. For Rutgers, in the Knights’ three biggest games they scored 16 (OSU), 13 (Wisconsin), and 7 points (Michigan).
Iowa is a tough environment and owns one of the best defenses, so Rutgers scoring 16-plus is a stretch. Rutgers visited Iowa City once and that was a 30-0 loss for the Knights.
In six of Iowa’s nine games this year, the combined game score was 34 or lower. Iowa and Rutgers own two of the worst 11-ranked passing efficiency offenses in the country and bottom 30 in total offense.
I played the Under and will continue to run it back on Iowa Unders. I grabbed the Under 28.5 at -110 odds and would go down to 28.0.
Pick: Under 28.5 (1.5u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 51-31-1 (62.1%) +17.26 units
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