Drew Allar, QB, Penn State at Maryland - Under 221.5 Passing Yards
Despite a lackluster performance against Indiana last week, Penn State is fielding one of the top-10 defenses in the country, allowing just a 30% success rate (2nd), 1.1 yards per drive (4th) and 4.1 yards per play (2nd). They’ve been relying on the Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen backfield duo to control the clock and bludgeon their opposition, and it’s working in the sense that they’re averaging 35.4 PPG (14th) and 2.7 points per drive (27th). However from a yardage perspective the Nittany Lions have been lacking, averaging 5.1 yards per play (98th) and 6.4 yards per pass (99th).
Accordingly, Drew Allar has been more of a game manager than game breaker as PSU is content to tailor their gameplan around a safe offensive attack that doesn’t put their defense in bad spots and capitalizes on superior field position. Despite scoring 30 + points in all but one game this season (Ohio State, 12 points), Allar has cleared 210 passing yards just once, and that was in their opening week victory over West Virginia when he threw for 325 yards on 29 attempts. His 7.5 yard ADOT is the 83rd-lowest out of 92 FBS quarterbacks who have taken at least 200 dropbacks, with OC Mike Yurcich craving stability over explosiveness. Which is understandable considering the lack of a Jahan Dotson’esque outside playmaker in their current WR corps.
Allar is currently lined at 221.5 passing yards against a Maryland defense that allows 5.2 yards per play (38th) and ranks 27th in Total EPA vs. the pass, but is currently checking in at 64th in rushing EPA. It makes sense for Penn State to continue their trend of riding the run game while taking calculated low-risk shots when throwing. I’m taking the Under 221.5 Passing Yards for Drew Allar.
La’Damian Webb, RB, South Alabama at Troy - Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (Thursday)
I’m really excited about this Thursday Night Sun Belt matchup, as South Alabama’s potent offense averages 34 PPG (25th) and 6.4 yards per play (25th), while ranking 20th in EPA/Play. However they are facing a Troy defense that is quietly jockeying with James Madison to determine which team has the best defense in the G5. Troy is allowing 15 PPG (6th), 4.8 yards per play (15th) and ranks 11th in defensive EPA. Beyond that, they are vicious in run defense, ranking 12th in rushing performance according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics, so if they hope to move the ball with regularity, it’s going to involve a heaping dose of passing.
With Webb, he’s not just a valued rusher, but an excellent receiver out of the backfield who has secured 16-of-16 targets for 110 yards over his last five games and accounted for at least 19 receiving yards in every single one of those contests while dodging 11 tackles in that span. I expect rushing yards to be at a premium against the Trojans’ vaunted defense, which means Webb should be relied upon to produce in the receiving game even more than usual. With his line set at a reasonable 16.5 Receiving Yards, i’m taking the Over.
Gunnar Watson, QB, Troy vs. South Alabama: Opened at 239.5 Passing Yards (FD) - currently 249.5 Passing Yards
Jabre Barber, WR, Troy vs. South Alabama: Opened at 66.5 Receiving Yards - currently 76.5 Receiving Yards
On the other side of the Webb play, Troy is facing South Alabama’s 11th ranked run defense and 58th in pass D, which means we should get a heaping dose of the QB Gunnar Watson/WR Jabre Barber tandem. Watson’s opening line of 239.5 was a glaring mistake that got sequentially bet up to 249.5, which I still feel is a solid value. Watson has cleared that number in four of the last six weeks, but even that trend is a bit deceptive. Two weeks ago Troy beat Army’s snail-paced offense that ranks 123rd in pace 19-0, so they basically just sat on the ball the second half since Army could barely get out of their own way, accruing a paltry 255 total yards while converting 2-of-14 third downs. The week beforehand they crushed an inept Arkansas State team 37-3, as Kimani Vidal and company ran for an ungodly 351 yards on 50 carries at a 7.0 YPC clip. The point is - Watson attempted just 21 passes in each of those outlier games against the dregs of the G5, whereas he has thrown at least 30 passes in every other game this year against non-incompetent FBS opponents.
USA is clearly a quality team that Troy is going to have to push the pedal-to-the-metal against all game long, regardless of score. Watson went 26-for-40 for 392 passing yards last game against Texas State, while Jabre “The Hutt” Barber has posted 120+ receiving yards in three of his last four games, with the lone Under coming in the aforementioned ground assault versus Arkansas State. With Troy likely to be in a heavy passing script, and with Jabre commanding averaging almost 10 targets per game over his last six contests, it’s easy to see why each of these players saw their opening lines spike in short order. It’s elementary that i’ll be taking Sherlock Holmes’ sidekick, Watson and Brutus the Barber’s Overs this Thursday night.
MJ Morris, QB, NC State vs. Miami - Under 214.5 Passing Yards
Despite being called upon to start in Devin Leary’s absence last season as a four-star true freshman, HC Dave Doeren imported OC Robert Anae from Syracuse and Brennan Armstrong from Virginia to reunite the Bronco Mendenhall-led duo from UVA at NC State. Unfortunately that experiment failed in ignominious fashion with Armstrong being benched in favor of Morris three games ago. Though Morris threw for 265 yards on 17-of-32 passing in his first start in a 48-41 barn burner versus Marshall, he only threw for 193 yards against Duke and 138 yards versus Clemson in his subsequent two games. In fact, dating back to last season he hasn’t cleared 210 passing yards in his last four starts against P5 opponents.
This week he is facing a Miami defense that ranks 30th in overall pass defense with a 36% success rate and ranks 94th in pace of play. For their part, NC State has the 123rd ranked passing offense with a pedestrian 5.9 yards per pass average (117th). With NC State sporting a 33% pregame win expectancy and Morris being an inexperienced signal caller who is still getting his bearings, i’m taking the Under 214.5 on his Passing Yardage prop.
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Other Notable Line Movement:
Mitch Griffis, QB, Wake Forest at Duke: Opened at 180.5 Passing Yards - currently 143.5 Passing Yards
Frankly, this was an appalling line given the extreme struggles we’ve seen from Wake Forest’s passing offense as they enter the post-Hartman era. I got it at 167.5 as it got immediately crushed upon the Open. It’s a 50/50 chance that Griffis is pulled against Duke’s stout Pass D at some point in favor of “The Italian Stallion” Santino Marucci. I’d sprinkle some of your bankroll on the the Under if you can still get it, even at this dirt low number.
Sam Hartman, QB, Notre Dame at Clemson: Opened at 240.5 Passing Yards - currently 225.5 Passing Yards
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson vs. Notre Dame: Opened at 10.5 Rushing Yards - currently 7.5 Rushing Yards.
Maalik Murphy, QB, Texas vs. Kansas State: Opened at 180.5 Passing Yards - currently 172.5 Passing Yards
Carson Beck, QB, Georgia vs. Missouri: Opened at 282.5 Passing Yards (DK) - currently 292.5 on FanDuel
