Vaughn Dalzell breaks down three lowly totals with Michigan, Air Force, and Iowa for Week 10, plus two ML plays, and why you should be backing all five.
Kansas at Iowa State (-2.5): O/U 52.5
It’s Iowa State’s homecoming and they are an un-ranked home favorite against a ranked road underdog, which is a system play in college football and basketball.
Not only that, but Kansas is coming off an upset home victory over Oklahoma that shook up the Big 12 and put the Jayhawks in the AP Top 25 (#22), which is an ideal fade spot.
When breaking down this matchup, Iowa State’s defense is great at everything Kansas wants to do offensively, such as passing efficiency (17th vs 10th) and rushing attack (10th vs 38th). On defense for the Jayhawks, Kansas is 77th and 102nd in passing efficiency and rushing yards allowed, which Iowa State can take advantage of.
The Cyclones also have the advantage in turnover margin (+7 vs +2), third-down defense (27th vs 96th), and red zone defense (41st vs 129th). The Jayhawks allowed 32 scores on 33 red zone attempts this season, so Iowa State should put up points.
Iowa State lost 10-9 at home to Kansas last season and seek revenge in the second of home-and-home series against the Jayhawks.
I like the Cyclones on the ML at -132 odds. I wouldn’t talk anyone off the -2.5 since Iowa State is on a 3-0 ATS streak, but you could probably get a better ML price live.
Pick: Iowa State ML (1u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Illinois at Minnesota (-1.5): O/U 42.5
Illinois’ rushing defense is ranked 88th this season with 161 yards allowed per game and that’s exactly what Minnesota wants to do on offense, pound the rock.
The Gophers are on a two-game winning streak beating Iowa and Northwestern, grinding out both wins and allowing the two teams to combine for 22 points.
The Illini are coming off a 25-21 home loss versus Wisconsin after Illinois earned its first road win of the season. Illinois lost to Kansas (34-23), and Purdue (44-19), but beat Maryland (27-24) on the road this year.
In Illinois’ five losses overall, the Illini allowed 182.4 rushing yards per game, plus 189 and 262 in road losses to Purdue and Kansas. Minnesota averages 174.5 rushing yards per game (43rd) and ranks 20th in red zone offense with 23 scores on 25 trips.
Minnesota is 4-1 at home this season with its lone loss to Michigan. The Gophers lost the past two overall versus the Illini, but are 4-1 in the past five meetings at home. Give me Minnesota on the ML at -125 odds out to -150.
Pick: Minnesota ML (1u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Army at Air Force (-18.5): O/U 33.0
Dating back to 2012, the Under is 29-3-1 and is 13-1-1 since 2018 between service Academy schools. We are 1-0 this season and this is the second of the third between service schools.
Since 2014, Army and Air Force combined for 31 or fewer points in seven out of nine matchups with 43 and 35 points in the two Overs. Last season was a 13-7 finish and 31 or less points were scored in five out of the previous six meetings.
Air Force ranks top 50 in most defensive categories such as red zone defense, total defense, points allowed, third-down percentage, and more. Army’s offense ranks 100th or worse in third-down percentage, total yards, passing offense, and red zone offense.
Army ranks 24th in time of possession and Air Force is 1st, so expect both teams to control the clock and much like the previous matchup, finish below 30 points. I played the Under 33.0 at -110 odds and would go down to 31.0 for 1.5 units.
Pick: Under 33.0 (1.5u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Purdue at Michigan (-32.5): O/U 48.5
We missed Michigan’s defense last week, but while the Wolverines enjoyed the bye week, Purdue was embarrassed 31-14 at Nebraska.
The Boilermakers offense put up 195 total yards off offense versus the Cornhusker and averaged 3.0 yards per pass attempt. Purdue scored 14 or fewer points in three straight games versus Iowa, Ohio State, and Nebraska, so Michigan should be just fine with the extra prep time.
Purdue scored 16 or fewer points in four of the last five meetings versus Michigan and this is the best defense of that era, plus the worst for the Boilermakers’ in that span.
Michigan has held every opponent to 10 or less points and seven or fewer in seven out of eight this season. I like Purdue to score seven or fewer points at Michigan, so I took the Under 7.5 at -113 odds on Purdue’s Team Total. Shop around because this was -142.
Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 7.5 (Risk 1.5u)
Iowa (-5) vs. Northwestern: O/U 31.0
Iowa and Northwestern meet at Wrigley Field, home of the Major League Baseball’s Chicago Cubs for a neutral field Big 10 game. The total is set at 30.5 for the lowest total of the season, again, and we are going Under, again.
Iowa has scored 12 combined points in their two losses and 71 total points in the last five games for 14.2 points per game. Iowa scored 20, 15, and 0 points in its three road games for 11.6 ppg.
Northwestern is 0-3 on the road this season with 7, 9, and 14 points scored for 10.0 ppg against Rutgers, Duke, and Nebraska.
The loser in this series scored 10 or less points in five of the previous six matchups and the total combined points were 29 or fewer in four of those games.
These are two of the worst offenses in the country, so let’s roll with the Under. I played the Under 31.0 and 30.5 at -110 odds. I’d go down to 30.0.
Pick: Under 31.0 (1u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 48-29-1 (62.3%) +17.8 units
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