With less than 48 hours until the college football semifinals kickoff, NBC Sports’ Eric Froton (@CFFroton) took a dive into the player prop market and laid out a handful of his top plays for bettors.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Jeremiyah Love, RB, ND: Opened - Under 58.5 Rushing Yards = NOW Under 42.5 at Caesar’s
We got an initial drop of 58.5 Rushing Yards for Love Friday morning on Underdog and Sleeper, which I immediately went out and made my Best Bet on NBC’s Bet The Edge as the most mispriced line of the Semi-Final round. Love went down in the second half against USC and yielded carries for the remainder of the contest to Ja’Darian Price. ND said all the right things about Love’s health heading into R1 versus Indiana, and he rewarded the Irish with a first quarter 98-yard explosive touchdown run against the Hoosiers. However, since that run Love has accrued just 29 yards on 13 carries, including his 6 carry, 19 yard performance against Georgia last round where he was noticeably compromised.
There’s no secret to what’s happening here. Love has failed to finish out his last three games due to his knee injury that has gone from a simple sleeve to a full-on brace in practice this week with a quick one-week turnaround. Hopefully you watched Bet The Edge and profited from the absurd early lines, but I still think there’s value at the current Under 42.5 rushing yards on Caesar’s.
Love’s backup RB Jadarian Price just came out in the 45.5/46.5 range, which he has cleared six times in 14 games against the middling run defenses of Purdue/Stanford/FSU/USC/Georgia Tech/Army. He has received 10+ carries in each of his last four games, but he still rushed for just 32 yards vs. Indiana and 37 yards vs. Georgia last round.
I think a speculative Over 70+ yards on Draft Kings at +350 is well worth a sprinkle in case Love is severely compromised.
Read More: Nicole Auerbach tells us Penn State’s work is just beginning
Mitchell Evans, TE, ND: Under 27.5 Receiving Yards | FanDuel (-115)
Mitchell Evans tore an ACL late last season but managed to make it back in time for the season opener against Texas A&M. While his usage has been consistent, Evans’ 6.4 ADOT ranks 66th out of 85 qualifying tight ends while his meager 4.0 YAC ranks 75th. Some of that has to do with Notre Dame’s conservative approach with dual-threat QB Riley Leonard under center:
- Riley Leonard has averaged just 10.6 yards per completion this season-- T-5th-lowest among Power Conference Quarterbacks.
- Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season, 20th-best among FBS defenses.
Evans opened at 30.5 receiving yards on Fanatics, but has since dropped to a high of 27.5. He has cleared 27 receiving yards just twice all season - a five catch, 59-yard showing against USC and a four catch, 34-yard game against Virginia making him a lopsided 12-2 against the 27.5 Receiving Yards mark.
I like Mitchell’s overall talent level, but he’s simply not being used in a manner that leads me to believe he can clear his fairly aggressive line against a top-flight pass defense in Penn State.
Nicholas Singleton, RB, PSU: Over 58.5 Rush Yards on BetMGM
Singleton has cleared his 58.5 rushing yards line on BetMGM in each of the last five games against credible defenses like Oregon, Minnesota, SMU and Boise State. Notre Dame’s run D has shown vulnerability, ranking a troubling 129th in stuff rate (14%) and 63rd in rush success rate (42.6%) heading into the semi-final matchup.
As the games get more difficult, Singleton’s ability to create explosive plays becomes more important to the PSU offense which also applies to the receiving game. Notre Dame’s linebackers are decent in coverage, but are still allowing 60%+ completion rates:
Jack Kiser LB: 12-of-19 for 133 with 5.8 ADOT and 11.1 YPC = 61.2 cover grade
Drayk Bowen, LB: 8-of-13 for 119 yards with 7.4 ADOT and 15.0 YPC = 73.7 Cover Grade
Singleton is also getting assaulted with targets having received 47 in 14 games, catching 39, while his receiving line is currently set at 3.5 receptions (+135) and 26.5/27.5 yards. The receptions will likely require a chasing game script to clear and he has eclipsed the current rec yardage line just five times in 14 games against some of the more competitive B10 teams in Oregon, Ohio State, Wisconsin, USC and Minnesota. I’m laying off the receiving lines but wanted to address them.
Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Tre Wisner, RB, Texas: Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Texas is throwing to running backs on 22.1% of team pass attempts, 16th-most in FBS. Quintrevion Wisner was targeted 46 times in the regular season, 2nd-most among SEC running backs. Texas’ rush offense has had some promising moments, but still ranks just 98th in yards before contact and 87th in yards per successful rush. I think we see Ewers targeting Wisner with extended handoffs and designed screens in order to counter OSU’s ferocious front-seven.
With these factors in mind, I’m taking the Over 16.5 Receiving Yards on Wisner. I’m also concerned Texas’ run game gets shut down completely, which hampered his production against ASU (18 for 45 yards) Georgia (19 for 51) and Arkansas (17 for 59).
Will Howard, QB, Ohio State: Under 31.5 Pass Attempts | ESPNBet
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: Over 83.5 Receiving Yards | BetMGM (-115)
When Ohio State is dictating the pace of the game and controlling the tempo, it’s important to remember the natural preference of their OC Chip Kelly to establish a credible run game and lean on their opponents when OSU has a lead. The result has been Will Howard doesn’t require passing volume to win games. Howard has thrown 31.5 passes just twice all year, against Michigan (33 passes) and the first Oregon game (35).
Despite throwing for 311 and 319 yards in his first two playoff games, Howard only required 26 and 29 pass attempts to do it. I’m taking this Under 31.5 Pass Attempts with the expectation that OSU is able to hit big plays in a similar manner.
This is why I also played the Immortal Jeremiah Smith to go OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards at Open. It is still good at the current 83.5 receiving yards mark that he has torched four of the last six games. Smith will get pounded with targets if they’re down and is likely going to be a key part of their success if they’re winning.
Enjoy the games. Check back in for a look at the angles to bet the Championship game at the end of the week.
