Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the spread, total, and Blake Corum in the College Football National Championship between Michigan and Washington.
Michigan (-4.5) vs Washington: O/U 56.0
Michigan opens as a -4.5 point favorite and the total has seen slight movement settling on either 55.5, 56.0, or 56.5 at most shops. The look-ahead spread was Michigan -6.5, so Washington’s win over Texas moved the line two points.
As someone who took Washington +4 and ML versus Texas (and Michigan ML), I don’t think the line should have moved two points.
Michigan versus Alabama was the presumed National Title game, and while this will be much closer than last year’s Georgia versus TCU matchup, we have to remember Washington has been involved in and won 10 straight games by 10 or fewer points.
JJ McCarthy has answered the call in the biggest moments versus Ohio State and Alabama this season. With Blake Corum, Roman Wilson, and plenty of more underrated weapons, the Wolverines shouldn’t have as many struggles scoring or self-imposed problems versus Washington as they did against the Tide.
Michigan sacked Milroe a season-high six times and held him to a season-low 116 passing yards, but we cannot expect that same result for Michael Penix. The Washington offensive line is one of the best units in the country and will face its toughest test to date with Michigan’s defensive line, which is arguably the best in the country as well.
The Wolverines will come up with creative ways to pressure Penix who has not been sacked more than twice in a game all season. Texas did not sack Penix once, neither did Oregon State (38 sacks, 12th) while Oregon got Penix three times in two games. Penix will have enough time to make plays and challenge Michigan downfield, which means Washington will be able to score with Michigan, which is why I like the Over 55.5.
I believe Harbaugh gets his first National Title and Michigan will defy the odds of this scandalous season. Whether or not this title gets stripped years from now doesn’t matter to me because I’ve enjoyed this journey and will remember how this team battled adversity.
I played Michigan -4.5 at -110 odds and the Over 55.5 at -110 odds. I would go out to Michigan -6 and Over 56.0. I’d buy back from 56.5 to 56.0 if you have the option.
Pick: Michigan -4.5 (1u), Over 55.5 (1u)
Bowl Record: 22-11 (66.6%) +10.69u
Season Record: 86-53-1 (61.8%) +30.5u
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Blake Corum O/U 100.5 Rushing Yards vs. Washington
Blake Corum has 26 total touchdowns on the season with an NCAA-high 25 rushing scores on the ground. The Wolverines’ running back caught his first receiving touchdown of the season against Alabama, en route to six-straight games with two or more touchdowns.
On the season, Corum has scored two or more touchdowns in 10 out of 14 games and only 100 or more yards in two of those. However, Corum’s rushing prop for this National Championship is between 101.5 and 106.5 yards. That’s not fishy because Michigan will run Corum into the ground if they can.
The Wolverines’ bell-cow has carried the rock 19, 22, and 26 times against Alabama, Ohio State, and Penn State, the three biggest games for Michigan. On the year, Corum averages 4.7 yards per carry, so mathematically 23 carries would get Corum to Over 106.5 yards.
However, Corum has broken off runs of 20-plus yards against Alabama, Ohio State, and Penn State, something I see happening here. Texas had 180 yards on the ground against Washington with three rushers between 54 and 64 yards and three total rushing TDs.
No matter what the game script is, I believe Corum will be heavily involved against Washington, and Michigan’s rushing offense isn’t comparable to anything Washington has faced all season. Three teams had a rusher of 100-plus yards against Washington (Oregon, USC, Oregon St), and I expect Michigan to add its name to that list.
Give me Corum Over 100.5 rushing yards at -115 odds out to 106.5, plus his two touchdowns at +135. I don’t hate a sprinkle on his first touchdown scorer for Michigan at +160 odds either.
Pick: Blake Corum Over 100.5 Rushing Yards (0.5u), Corum 2+ TDs (0.5u)
Bowl Record: 22-11 (66.6%) +10.69u
Season Record: 86-53-1 (61.8%) +30.5u
