Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bets for the College Football Conference Championship slate, including Michigan vs Iowa, Georgia vs Alabama, and Washington vs Oregon.
Michigan (-23) vs Iowa: O/U 35.5
Michigan and Ohio State was by far one of the coolest games to watch in person from a pressbox and one thing is for sure, if you don’t have the refs or a Marvin Harrison Jr., you are not going to move the ball very well on Michigan.
Iowa is simply overmatched, overpowered, and will be out-coached as Jim Harbaugh returns. Michigan will likely jump out early on Iowa so they can rest the second half of this game and await the winner of Washington/Oregon.
Deacon Hill and the Hawkeyes’ offense will need the defense or special teams to produce points because Iowa scored 15 or fewer points in six straight games. In the only game versus a ranked opponent, Iowa lost 31-0 at Penn State.
I played Michigan’s 1Q spread of -6.5 at -112 odds and the Hawkeyes’ Team Total Under 6.5 at -111 odds. I don’t think Michigan will play with its food here.
Pick: Iowa Team Total Under 6.5 (1.5u), Michigan 1Q -6.5 (1u)
*game odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oregon (-9.5) vs Washington: O/U 66.5
Oregon versus Washington for the Pac-12 Championship on a Friday night is a treat!
Both of these squads are two of the best offenses in the country and teams overall, but Washington has been struggling, while Oregon has been thriving.
In the last eight games, the Huskies have been involved in eight single-digit contests, winning all eight, compared to Oregon who won seven straight by 10-plus points.
Since the loss to Washington, Oregon has led at halftime by 4, 15, 23, 8, 42, and 14 points, clearing the -4.5 first-half line for this game, five of six times and five straight. Oregon has only trailed at half once, and that came versus Washington (22-18).
I like the revenge angle and payback for Oregon. Bo Nix is my Heisman pick and he earns it in this game and punches the Ducks’ bid to the College Football Playoff and a likely meeting with the Michigan Wolverines in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl.
I laid the first-half spread of -4.5 at -108 odds on Oregon. I would go out to -6 on the Ducks as they are clearly the better team since the previous meeting.
Pick: Oregon 1H -4.5 (1.5u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma State vs Texas (-15): O/U 55.5
Oklahoma State has won two straight meetings versus Texas and this is a great spot for the Longhorns to get a little payback while pushing for the College Football Playoff.
Texas needs Oregon, Florida State, and Alabama to lose this weekend in order to make it, but even Oregon and Alabama losses could get the Longhorns into the four-team playoff.
However, Texas needs another convincing win. After three-point wins versus TCU and Kansas State, the Longhorns beat Iowa State by 10 points and Texas Tech by 50. In the last four games, Texas has scored 33, 29, 26, and 57 points.
While I lean toward the Longhorns to cover the spread, I believe the Team Total Over 34.5 (-130) is the way to go, up to 35.5 (-115). Texas will need to put up points and with Quinn Ewers back at the helm, the Longhorns should be in good shape to do so.
In Oklahoma State’s three losses, the Cowboys allowed 33, 34, and 45 points to South Alabama, Iowa State, and UCF. The Cowboys have given up 30 and 34 points in the last two games to Houston and BYU.
I am rolling with the Horns’ Team Total Over 34.5 at -130 odds out to 35.5 (-115). I like the chances Texas goes Over four touchdowns scored.
Pick: Texas Team Total Over 34.5 (1u)
*game odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia (-6) vs Alabama: O/U 54.5
13 of the last 15 SEC Champions and 19 of the past 22 have scored at least 30 points in the SEC Championship Game and I believe that trend can continue for Georgia as the Bulldogs look for their 30th-consecutive win.
However, there are some injuries worth noting. The Bulldogs’ WR Ladd McConkey and TE Brock Bowers are questionable with ankle injuries, while the Tide’s star RB Jase McClellan could be out for this matchup.
The Bulldogs have scored at least 30 points in 10 out of 12 games this season and seven straight contests. Alabama’s only permitted 30 or more points once this season, a 34-24 loss at home to Texas, the highest-ranked team Bama has faced.
In Alabama’s three single-digit wins, the Tide scored 26, 24, and 27 points, in addition to 24 in the only loss. The Tide’s Team Total is set at 24.5, which is right on the money.
All three injuries are worth monitoring and will move the lines. As of now, the Georgia Team Total Over 29.5 (-135) and the Alabama Team Total Under 24.5 (-128) are two bets I am eyeing up.
Pick: Will update the official pick after the injury report *courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 60-39-1 (60.6%) +19.21 units
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