Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his Week 4 College Football card that includes a top 15 matchup between Oklahoma State and Utah, plus Iowa at Minnesota and more!
#22 Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota: O/U 35.5
Minnesota won 12-10 at Iowa last season to break an eight-game winning streak in the series for the Hawkeyes. Despite blowing Week 2 with a loss against Iowa State, Iowa is the better team and will show it on Saturday.
The Gophers have Max Brosmer at quarterback this year. Brodmrt has a 68.8 completion percentage on 77 throws this year and -5 rushing yards on 22 carries along with seven sacks.is impressive
Both teams will be very ground-dependent here and special teams will be a factor. However, I don’t think Iowa will be affected much by the road atmosphere and the Hawkeyes come away with a victory.
Iowa has won four straight at Minnesota with the Gophers scoring 17 total points in the last two meetings. The Iowa defense is even better than its last two to four seasons. Give me the Hawkeyes on the ML at -135 odds as my best bet. I’d go out to -150 or -3 odds.
Pick: Iowa ML (2u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Nico Iamaleava Over 248.5 Passing Yards vs. Oklahoma
#6 Tennessee versus #15 Oklahoma will be one of the most bet games on Saturday’s loaded Week 4 slate, but the best bet in this game is centered around a player prop on the Vols quarterback, Nico Iamaleava.
Iamaleava hasn’t even been unleashed yet this season despite racking up 698 passing yards, 6 TDs to 2 INTs, the 22nd-best QBR (80.7), and a 71.6 completion percentage to go along with the No. 1 scoring offense in the country at 63.6 points per game.
Haters will say two of the three games have come against Chattanooga and Kent State, but what about #23 ranked NC State (211 passing yards, 3 total TDs)? This can be the outing that Iamaleava is thrown into the fire and his 248.5 prop should look closer to 275 since they have yet to be in a competitive game.
I played Iamaleava Over 248.5 Passing Yards at -114 odds and would go up to 265 on the freshman QB. I laddered his passing touchdowns at 3-plus (+255) and 4-plus (+1100) on Bet The Edge.
Pick: Nico Iamaleava Over 248.5 Passing Yards (1u)
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#12 Utah (-2.5) at #14 Oklahoma State: O/U 54.0
Both Utah and Oklahoma State are 3-0 and the winner of this game will be a front-runner in the Big 12 to make the College Football Playoff. However, that is not the story of the game. The story is quarterback Cam Rising’s more than likely return for Utah per wide receiver Dorian Singer.
Utah will need to rally on the road as Stillwater, Oklahoma is no easy place to play. The Cowboys are 25-3 at Boone Pickens Stadium since the beginning of the 2020 season.
Despite both quarterbacks being a combined 49-year-old, I think the difference in this game will be the Cowboys’ Ollie Gordon (260 total yards, 4 TDs), who is arguably the best running back in the country.
Gordon finished last season with 100-plus yards in eight of his final 10 games and while Utah has one of the better rush defenses in the country, a running back like that could be the difference.
Oklahoma State is on a 10-4 run versus top-25 teams when they are ranked and 5-0 all-time when ranked top 15 at home and facing another top-15 team. Give me the Cowboys +2.5 at -110 and the ML at +115. I also have Gordon laddered at 2-plus touchdowns (+285) and 3-plus touchdowns (+1000).
Update: This game flipped to Oklahoma State -2 or -2.5 and if that holds, the Cowboys ML up to -140 odds is the play.
Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5 (1u), Oklahoma State ML (0.5u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Miami (OH) at #17 Notre Dame: O/U 44.0
Notre Dame is coming off a 66-7 absolute smackdown on Purdue in a game where the spread dropped from -10.5 to -6.5 in favor of the Irish.
The Notre Dame defense nearly pitched a shutout at Purdue after being embarrassed in a 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish’s problems seem to be fixed for the time being and they get another positive matchup with the Miami RedHawks on deck.
The Miami offense has struggled with 22 total points in two games versus Northwestern (13-6) and Cincinnati (27-16). Miami lost both games and couldn’t get much going in the first half with a combined six first-half points through two games on two field goals.
Notre Dame didn’t let Purdue score in the first half last week and Texas A&M only managed six points on two field goals in Week 1. Northern Illinois had 13 first-half points with an 83-yard touchdown and two field goals, but that can be considered an outlier because they scored three points the remainder of the game and somehow won.
I took Miami (OH) First-Half Team Total Under 2.5 at +140 odds as my best bet for this matchup. I would go down to Under 0.5 as they are basically the same bet. You could grab the Under 3.5 in the first half for -150 odds on FanDuel to get the hook at 3.5.
Pick: Miami (OH) First Half Team Total Under 2.5 (1u)
Season Record: 14-21 (40%) -11.63 units
Last Week: 6-4 (60%) +0.56 units
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