Clemson (9-3) opened the year in dubious fashion, losing 34-3 to Georgia which initiated their uphill climb to a CFP Playoff berth. However, the Tigers battled back to rattle off six consecutive wins before losing a 33-21 decision (18% win expectancy) at home to Louisville that further complicated their hopes of an ACC Championship Game appearance. Clemson rallied to win their next three games against @VT/Pitt/Citadel but they are sorely lacking a signature win. The Tigers’ lone victory over a team with a winning record occurred in Week 12 against @Pitt when they pulled out a close 24-20 decision. They sport an impressive +14 TO margin and are running the ball extremely effectively, ranking 10th in rush success rate. Defensively CU is quite competent on a per down basis, ranking 28th in rushing success rate allowed. But they’re getting gashed by high magnitude run plays, ranking 127th in yards per successful rush allowed (11.6).
Outside of a 18-15 Week 3 loss to a 10-2 BYU team, SMU (11-1) ran through their 60th ranked ACC schedule to go undefeated in conference play during their maiden Power Four campaign. A 28-27 victory over @Duke (9-3) carried the lowest win expectancy of SMU’s wins at a strong 74%, showing the convincing nature of the Mustangs’ success. Their offense ranks 5th nationally in SP+ with their potent pass attack placing 7th nationally in both EPA/dropback and yards per successful dropback (17.7). The SMU rushing attack is clearly the weakest unit on the team, ranking 82nd in rush success rate and 115th in YAC (2.16). It couldn’t be any different on the defensive side, as their defensive front is holding opponents to 7.3 yards per successful rush (4th in FBS) and a sensational .7 yards before contact allowed (8th). It’s more of the same stinginess in SMU’s secondary, as they rank 8th in pass success rate and 14th in QBR allowed.
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Game Details and How to watch the ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU
· Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Bank of America Stadium
· City: Charlotte, NC
· TV/Streaming: ABC
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Game odds for ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: SMU (-135), Clemson (+115)
- Spread: SMU -2.5
- Over/Under: 56.5 points
The books misread the market on this game, with Clemson opening as a -1.5/-120 favorite before flipping to the current line of +2.5/+115. SMU moneyline was a tidy value at Even money at the Sunday drop but has since plummeted to -135. The game total is still pretty unsettled after opening at 54.5 and is all the way up to 57 if you hunt for it.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Looking at each team’s resume Clemson’s lack of a real definitive, signature win is particularly troublesome. SMU’s only blemish was a three-point loss to 10-2 BYU when starting QB Kevin Jennings was still QB2 behind Preston Stone. They smoked Pitt 48-25 and earned wins over 8+ win teams TCU/@Louisville/@Duke. I am backing the SMU moneyline and laying the (-125/135).”
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Quarterback matchup for ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU
- SMU: Heading into fall camp conventional wisdom had former four-star QB Preston Stone reprising his role as the starting quarterback. However QB Kevin Jennings showed out well enough for HC Rhett Lashlee to commit to giving him snaps as the QB1B to Stone’s 1A. That arrangement lasted three weeks until Jennings was forced to take over in their 18-15 loss to BYU after Stone faltered in his final starting appearance. Jennings has completed 67% of his throws for 2,758 yards, a 19-to-7 ratio and 9.3 yards per attempt which ranks 5th best among Power Four signal callers. He boasts advanced ability to escape the rush, as is evidenced by an 11.8% pressure-to-sack rate, and ranks 12th in FBS with an 85.6 PFF passing grade.
- Clemson: Third-year QB Cade Klubnik was considered the #1 quarterback recruit from the 2022 prep cycle, and after two learning seasons (63.9 PFF passing grade in 2023) Klubnik has made a leap, completing 63.2% of his throws for 7.5 YPA and a sterling 29-to-5 ratio. He’s testing opposing secondaries downfield more liberally this year, increasing his ADOT from 7.0-to-9.7 and earning a sensational 89.5 PFF passing grade that ranks 9th in the P4. Perhaps most impressively, Klubnik leads the nation with an 82.0 PFF passing pressure grade. The third-year field general has shown the ability to navigate the pocket and keep his eyes trained downfield when protection breaks down, with the primary beneficiary being WR Antonio Williams.
Clemson vs. SMU: Betting trends & recent stats
- SMU’s offense has thrown for 3,167 passing yards in 12 games this season, 31st-best among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 206.9 passing yards per game this season, 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
- SMU’s WRs have averaged 15.2 yards after the catch this season, 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 11.0 YAC this season, 4th-best among ACC defenses.
- Kevin Jennings has completed 66.7% of passes this season, 4th-best of Qualified ACC Quarterbacks. Clemson’s defense has allowed a completion rate of just 54.8% this season, 10th-best among FBS defenses.
- SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% in the Red Zone this season, worst among Power Conference Teams.
- Clemson WR Antonio Williams has reeled in 10 touchdown passes this season, tied for 3rd-most among Power Conference Skill Players. San Jose State WR Nick Nash led the nation with 16 TD receptions.
- Clemson is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season. (Average: .654)
- Clemson has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 24 of their 394 carries this season, the worst mark among Power Conference Teams.
- Cade Klubnik has completed 71% of passes (34 completions/48 net pass attempts) on 3rd and long this season, 3rd-best among Power Conference Quarterbacks.
BetMGM College Football Highlights: Conference Championship Week
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Penn State-Oregon
2. Georgia-Texas
3. Iowa State-Arizona State
Most bet teams (tickets)
1. Oregon -3.5
2. Texas -2.5
3. Arizona State -2.5
Most bet teams (handle)
1. Oregon -3.5
2. Texas -2.5
3. Arizona State -2.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
1. Georgia-Texas 49.5
2. Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State 57.5
3. Clemson-SMU 56.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
1. Tulane-Army 46.5
2. Marshall-Lafayette 56.5
3. Ohio-Miami OH 44.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
1. Georgia +120
2. Iowa State +110
3. Clemson +115
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