South Carolina (9-3) was 3-1 with a close 36-33 loss to LSU entering their Week 5 Bye. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks dropped the next two games against Ole Miss (27-3) and Alabama (27-25), giving them an even 3-3 record through the first half of the season. Since then, SC has been unstoppable, winning six straight over SEC caliber opponents including Texas A&M (44-20), @Vanderbilt, Missouri and CFP Playoff participant Clemson.
QB LaNorris Sellers leads a potent, balanced passing attack that ranks 19th in net yards per attempt (10.3) with a 65.1% completion rate (28th) and 21.5% of pass attempts going for 20+ yards (19th). Defensively South Carolina vaunted pass rush led by DEs Kyle Kennard (opted out) and Dylan Stewart ranks #1 in FBS with a 14.9% sack rate on passing downs and 8th with a 43.6% pressure rate.
Illinois (9-3) jumped out to a 4-0 start with quality wins over Kansas and Nebraska before running into Penn State’s vicious defense that held the Illini to just 219 total yards on the day. They barely escaped with a 50-49 win over 1-9 Purdue (25%-win expectancy) and beat an offense-averse Michigan team 21-7, before getting destroyed by Oregon 38-9 and losing a one-score game to Minnesota.
The Illini are built around a conservative passing attack that sacrifices chunk plays (68th in pass explosiveness) in favor of consistency (35th in pass success rate/17th 1st downs per comp), with Illinois ranking 12th in FBS with a 1.5% interception rate. The biggest issue on D is a morose run defense that ranks 129th in rushing success rate and 134th in stuff rate. Fortunately, their secondary has held up well, ranking 12th in yards per successful dropback and 21st in 20+ yard pass plays.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl - South Carolina vs. Illinois
· Date: Saturday, December 31st, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Camping World Stadium
· City: Orlando, FL
· TV/Streaming: ABC
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Game odds for 2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl - South Carolina vs. Illinois
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: South Carolina (-400), Illinois (+310)
- Spread: South Carolina -10
- Over/Under: 49.5 points
South Carolina opened as -11.5/-425 favorites but have since ticked down to -10 and could crossover the key number by the time gametime hits. The game total dropped at 47.5 but has spiked to a more aggressive 49.5 currently.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Illinois is 8-4 against the spread this year (12th in FBS) and is covering by an average of 5.8 points per game (17th). South Carolina is also 8-4 ATS and has won their last six games against a string of tough opponents such as Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Clemson. We will not see RB Raheim Sanders or DE Kyle Kennard for South Carolina, while leading WR Pat Bryant is out for Illinois. WR Bryant will be missed greatly in the pass game, as WR2 Zakhari Franklin has secured just 5-of-14 Red Zone targets. Illinois was soundly defeated by the three best teams on their schedule - Oregon, Penn State and Minnesota. I think South Carolina can impose their will on the Illini’s leaky run defense that ranks 129th in rushing success rate allowed and 109th in EPA/rush. So I’m taking South Carolina and laying the 10 points.”
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Quarterback matchup for Cheez-It Citrus Bowl - South Carolina vs. Illinois
- South Carolina: Second-year signal caller LaNorris Sellers has lived up to his four-star billing since experiencing some growing pains in the first half. To date, Sellers is completing 64.0% of his throws for 2,261 passing yards, 8.5 YPA and a 17-to-7 ratio. There are some things to iron out of course, with Sellers sporting a subpar 11-to-19 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate and getting sacked on 21% of pressures, leading to an SEC leading 10 fumbles. However, that doesn’t properly contextualize the run Sellers has been on lately, as he boasts a 12-to-2 ratio over his last 5 SEC games and completed 74% of his throws against Alabama’s exceptional secondary. Sellers will be a trendy sleeper Heisman pick in 2025.
- Illinois: QB Luke Altymer spent his first two seasons at Ole Miss until it became clear that Jaxson Dart was HC Lane Kiffin’s preferred choice, transferring to Illinois in 2023 earning the starting QB job. Dart has taken a step this year, throwing for 2,551 yards, 7.8 YPA (6.9 in 2023) and a commendable 18-to-3 ratio (13-to-10 last year). Altmyer’s 77.1 PFF overall grade ranks 53rd out of 92 qualifying signal callers, which is a grade on par with notable Power Four QBs like Fernando Mendoza, Nico Iamaleava and Brendan Sorsby. Illinois’ passing attack ranks 35th in EPA/Play and 12th with a 1.5% interception rate under Altmyer’s guidance, which serves to balance out a lackluster run game that ranks 72nd in success rate.
South Carolina vs. Illinois: Betting Trends and Recent Stats
- South Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% in the Red Zone this season, best in the SEC. They’ve allowed a completion rate of just 47% when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season, best in the SEC.
- South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.1% of 305 attempts this season, 10th-best among FBS offenses. Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season, 16th-best among FBS defenses.
- South Carolina opponents averaged 41.6 Passing Attempts per TD this season, 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams.
- South Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season, best in the SEC.
- South Carolina has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts this season-- 4th-best among Power Conference programs. South Carolina have been sacked on 13% of pass attempts this season, 3rd-worst among Power Conference offenses.
- South Carolina are 7-2 (.778) against the spread when intercepting at least 1 pass this season, 9th-best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .585)
- Luke Altmyer averages 15.7 yards per completion in the 4th quarter this season, 3rd-best among FBS quarterbacks.
- Pat Bryant has gained 20+ yards on 19 of his 54 receptions this season, best among Big Ten Receivers.
- Zakhari Franklin has just 5 receptions on 14 targets in the Red Zone this season, 6th-worst among FBS skill players.
- Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 42-of-408 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season, 2nd-worst among Power Conference teams. They have also tackled opponents for a loss on 2-of-61 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season, worst among Power Conference teams.
- Illinois is 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season, 21st-best in FBS. (Average: .670)
- Illinois has forced 13 fumbles this season, 2nd-most in the Big Ten.
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Open to Now)
- Texas +1000 to +300
- Ohio State +700 to +375
- Oregon +900 to +400
- Georgia +500 to +550
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 12.3%
- Texas 9.7%
- Georgia 9.7%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 15.0%
- Georgia 13.6%
- Texas 10.4%
Biggest Liabilities
- Arizona State
- Notre Dame
- Boise State
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