In 2023 Arizona State (10-2) earned just two FBS victories in HC Kenny Dillingham’s first season at the helm. With a full season to reconfigure the roster, ASU experienced one of the biggest turnarounds in college football, going from one win to 10 heading into the Big-12 Conference Championship Game. Their only two losses were competitive, falling to @Cincinatti and @Texas Tech, but going undefeated in Tempe. While the strength of the Sun Devils’ offense is their all-around excellent pass attack that ranks 11th in EPA/Dropback, and efficient run game that boasts a 52.2% rush success rate but also lacks explosion averaging 8.2 yards per successful rush (122nd). Of particular note is ASU superstar WR Jordyn Tyson will miss the game with a shoulder injury.
Iowa State (10-2) was rolling along at 8-0 heading into their Week 9 Bye week with extra time to prepare for Texas Tech. Unfortunately, the Cyclones came out flat and lost a 23-22 decision to the Red Raiders before suffering a second-consecutive 45-36 defeat at the hands of @Kansas. ISU rebounded to win their last three to slide into the B12 Title Game. Though Iowa State played in 5 games where they had a 50%-win expectancy or less, HC Matt Campbell and crew managed to go 3-2 in those close contests. Their calling card on offense is a potent passing offense that ranks 33rd in EPA/dropback and 19th in explosiveness, while their secondary is allowing the 2nd lowest completion rate in the country (52%).
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Game Details and How to Watch the Big 12 Championship: Iowa State at Arizona State
· Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024
· Time: 12 PM EST
· Site: AT&T Stadium
· City: Arlington, TX
· TV/Streaming: ABC
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Game odds for Big 12 Championship: Iowa State at Arizona State
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: Arizona State (-125), Iowa State (+105)
- Spread: Arizona State -2.5
- Over/Under: 49.5 points
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Without their primary aerial weapon, WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State is handcuffed and scrambling for a new trump card in the passing game. With their run game providing consistency, but lacking big play ability, ASU is going to have to string together long drives to score. With ISU already fielding a topflight secondary, I think they can disrupt the ASU offense well enough for me to back ISU +2.5.”
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Iowa State and Arizona State: Betting Trends & Recent Stats
- Arizona State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 2 of 410 attempts this season, best in the Big 12.
- RB Cam Skattebo has 468 receiving yards this season, 3rd-most among Power Four Running Backs
- Arizona State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 316 attempts this season, 18th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts this season, 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
- Arizona State is 7-3 (.700) against the spread when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season, 13th-best among Power Conference teams; (Average: .544)
- Arizona State has sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts this season, T-20th-worst in FBS.
- ISU DB Jontez Williams has intercepted 4 passes this season, tied for 3rd-most among Big 12 defensive players
- Rocco Becht has completed just 40% of passes (17 completions/43 net pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season, 6th-worst among FBS quarterbacks.
- RB Abu Sama has rushed for 2 TDs on 113 carries this season, the 5th-worst Carry per TD rate among Power Conference running backs.
Quarterback matchup for Iowa State at Arizona State
- Arizona State: QB Sam Leavitt transferred in from Michigan State in the offseason and managed to win the starting job outright in fall camp. He’s been one of the true ascending young quarterback stories of 2024, with Leavitt completing 62.5% of his passes for 2,442 yards, 8.5 YPA and a 21-to-5 ratio. He has displayed poise beyond his years, as the first-year starter ranks 13th in FBS with an 89th% PFF offensive grade.
- Iowa State: Despite a pedestrian 58.6% of his passes (75th of 93 qualifiers), 2nd year starter Rocco Becht is one of just 18 passers to clear the 3,000-yard mark this season. He definitely has a gunslinger nature to his game, with Becht posting a suboptimal 15-to-18 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate. Becht is sporting an elusive 11.2% pressure-to-sack rate, but his overall PFF grade of 73.4 is a little uninspiring.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Oregon +400 to +350
- Georgia +400 to +450
- Notre Dame +1400 to +900
- Alabama +4000 to +2200
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 13.2%
- Texas 10.9%
- Georgia 10.2%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 16.1%
- Georgia 14.3%
- Alabama 11.7%
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Alabama
- Ohio State
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