CFB Seasonal Prop Market Analysis
With DraftKings dropping their first installment of seasonal player props, we are seeing a large disparity between Prize Picks’ opening lines and Friday’s DraftKings drop, particularly in respect to quarterbacks. Here is a link to my July 22, 2022 column that covered the plays I perceived to be the best values on the board:
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/best-bets/cfb-seasonal-player-props-opening-best-bets
The two most notable line differences from each initial CFB props release:
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
- 7/22 Prize Picks Opening = 3010.5 passing yards
- Current Prize Picks line = 3190.5 passing yards
- DraftKings Opening Line = 3,699.5 passing yards
Line Differential: Current Odds = 509 yards
Opening Odds = 689 yards
This is a staggering differential, even by player props standards…almost 700 yards from the opening market! Sure, Prize Picks has to be parlayed and DraftKings is standing alone, but DK’s doesn’t appear to be baking in the sizable downside should a mobile quarterback miss even one game and what that would do to this 3,699.5 yard Over. I love Caleb Williams’ talent and think 3,700 yards passing is well within his range of outcomes, however it’s important to keep in mind that Williams ran for 442 yards compared with 1,912 passing yards last year and will likely continue breaking big plays with his legs that take away from his arm production. I think it’s fair to comp Caleb’s 2019’s passing volume with a Jalen Hurts led Sooners offense that tossed for 297 yards per game, which spread over 12 games puts the offenses total passing output at 3,564 yards. Mind you, Caleb has to take every single snap to hit that mark, with Hurts himself only reaching 3,347 passing yards in OU’s 12 regular season games. Blowouts are also a factor as Hurts ceded snaps to backups that siphoned off 288 passing yards from his overall yardage total.
With Williams likely to have some games where he runs for 150 yards and throws for 200, it’s going to be hard to maintain the level of consistency needed to clear the 309 YPG average needed to clear the Over 3,699.5 yards prop, and you can still get 509 yards of middle value on it should you want to play it at Prize Picks at 3190.5 right now.
CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
- 7/22 Prize Picks Opening = 3632.5 passing yards
- Current Prize Picks line = 3832.5 passing yards
- DraftKings Opening Line = 4,450.5 passing yards
Line Differential: Current Odds = 618 yards
Opening Odds = 818 yards
This is a prime opportunity to throw some cash on a nice middle opportunity where Stroud has to hit a 371 YPG average through 12 regular season games to eclipse the DraftKings Over of 4,450.5, and 319 yards per game to clear Prize Picks’ 3,832 number. If you read my July column and have shares at 3,632.5, then congratulations a winner is you. Please immediately plop down an unspecified amount of currency and you take this line to Middle Earth with the rest of the Hobbits and savor the 818 yards of line value you just scarfed up. Also of import - Stroud missed a paycheck game against Akron last year, a similar situation would destroy this DraftKings Over 4,450.5. Also five-star freshman QB Devin Brown is now on campus and is battling Kyle McCord to succeed Stroud in 2023, so expect both of them to siphon off late game garbage reps, of which there are many at Ohio State.
The combo play to run out and take advantage of is parlaying Stroud 3832.5 Over and Williams 3190.5 Over on Prize Picks with the Under for DraftKings and sit back while you get 1,127 yards of line value to play with. Not something you want to tie your entire bankroll with since it’s a season bet. But these are the type of discrepancies that happen on Friday afternoons when the weekly bets come out that can quintuple your bankroll in one weekend.
Other notable lines:
Clayton Tune, QB, Houston
- Current Prize Picks line = 3193.5 passing yards
- DraftKings Opening Line = 3049.5 passing yards
Total Line Differential: 144 passing yards
I’m extremely bullish on Houston’s offense that averaged 272 passing yards per game last year and returns playmaker Tank Dell along with rare four-star freshman sensation Matthew Golden to form a potent wide receiving duo capable of making big plays down the field. Tune is a seasoned vet who was hampered by a hamstring issue for much of the season and with a return to full health should lead the Cougars to another 35+ PPG offensive outburst and double-digit win season. They dodge Cincinnati on their regular season schedule that ranks 102nd nationally in strength. I think Tune is a strong over play here and DraftKings doesn’t make you parlay like Prize Picks does, so this DK Over 3049.5 play is a go for me.
Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse
- Current Prize Picks line = 1,175.5 rushing yards
- Prize Picks Opening Line = 1,388.5 rushing yards
Total Line Differential: 213.5 rushing yards
Sean Tucker’s initial prop line of 1,388.5 stuck out due to the arrival of pass-heavy Virginia OC Robert Anae‘s arrival at Syracuse who will assuredly be dialing down their 71% standard downs run rate that ranked as the ninth highest in the country last year. While the transition could take some time considering QB Shrader’s troubling 52.6% completion rate, and OC Anae’s system clearing the 500 attempts mark in each of the last three seasons, Tucker will not be seeing the 246 carries from 2021 that allowed him to reach 1,496 rushing yards. Accordingly, this line plummeted from the 7/22 open after my article posted.
Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama
- Current Prize Picks line = 889.5 receiving yards
- DraftKings Opening Line = 994.5 receiving yards
Total Line Differential: 95 receiving yards
DraftKings is more bullish than Prize Picks here, as Burton has held pretty steady at 889.5 since the 7/22 PP open. In the CFF expert leagues i’ve participated in, Burton is being selected with a mid-second to Early-third round ADP. I guarantee those CFF managers aren’t expecting a sub-900 yard regular season from their prized investment. While I have questions about who will eventually be the top-dog in the Alabama WR room, as every single Alabama player I interviewed at the combine insists Ja’Corey Brooks is the next great Bama wideout, this system has proven to be able to carry two receivers. With Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young under center and Burton having flashed major explosiveness at UGA, I think DraftKings has this priced better and the value is on Over 889.5 receiving yards for Burton despite my aversion to non-QB Overs unless it’s a good value.
