At the time of this column’s publication, there were 22 bowl games (out of 38) with spreads of 3.5 points or lower. It’s never been more difficult to fill out your always tricky Bowl Confidence Pool. I’m here to help.
Before we begin, a few sentences about strategy. You cannot win a Confidence Pool by playing conservatively. If you pick mostly favorites, stacking your board based on point spreads, your card will look similar to the majority of your opponents’. You will finish in the upper half of the standings, but safely out of the money. Favorites have won about 65-percent of bowl games straight-up since 2005, and big favorites (7-plus points) have won 67-percent of games since then. Put another way: Underdogs regularly win in bowl season. I suggest tossing out point spreads when stacking your board. A sound Confidence Pool game plan is similar to that of a winning poker strategy: Strive to be intelligently aggressive. The cash payout in most pools is the same whether you finish fourth or 104th.
With that in mind, welcome to Rotoworld’s 2014-’15 Bowl Confidence Pool Primer. Note: Game analyses of Saturday’s games are available over at our first ATS column of the bowl season.
December 20
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Nevada (-1.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: Mid (17)
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Utah State (-10) vs. UTEP
Winner: Utah State
Confidence: High (36)
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Utah (-2.5) vs. Colorado State
Winner: Utah
Confidence: High (28)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Western Michigan (-1.5) vs. Air Force
Winner: Western Michigan
Confidence: Low (7)
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
South Alabama (-2.5) vs. Bowling Green
Winner: South Alabama
Confidence: Mid (16)
December 22
Miami Beach Bowl
Memphis (-1.5) vs. BYU
Winner: Memphis
Confidence: Mid (19)
Analysis: Vegas opened BYU as favorite, but the market named its own by hammering Memphis across the threshold. Smart move: The Tigers are on the rise and face a wounded Cougars team decimated by injuries. Tigers HC Justin Fuente just received a well-deserved contract extension and could be coaching at a more exotic locale in the near future if he so chooses.
December 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Marshall (-10) vs. Northern Illinois
Winner: Marshall
Confidence: Mid (23)
Analysis: As a double-digit favorite, the Herd will be atop the confidence rankings of most people in your pool. I’d be careful, here. Marshall doesn’t have a pronounced talent edge and is coming off a devastating double-overtime loss to Western Kentucky that crippled its dreams of crashing a major bowl. An outright Huskie upset wouldn’t be a surprise.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Navy
Winner: San Diego State
Confidence: Mid (18)
Analysis: Navy is good enough to beat bad teams, but not good enough to overcome talent discrepancies against superior squads (the Mids are 1-6 ATS this season against bowl teams). The Aztecs have won eight straight against service academies and boast sophomore RB Donnel Pumphrey, who ranks No. 3 in FBS rushing yards behind only Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman.
December 24
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Western Kentucky (-3.5) vs. Central Michigan
Winner: Central Michigan
Confidence: Low (1)
Analysis: The Hilltoppers ride in high off a 67-66 double-overtime upset of 11-0 Marshall, paced by FBS-leading passer Brandon Doughty (4,344 yards). They face one of the bowl season’s least sexy teams. The Chippewas, who play strong defense, beat Northern Illinois earlier this season (soundly, and on the road), and knocked off WKU in a 2012 bowl, should not be taken lightly.
Hawai’i Bowl
Rice (-2) vs. Fresno State
Winner: Fresno State
Confidence: Low (2)
Analysis: Rice got mauled in two of its last three games (versus Louisiana Tech and Marshall), while Fresno State had won three straight prior to dropping a closer-than-expected decision to Boise State on the blue turf in the Mountain West Championship Game. The Bulldogs’ Josh Harper (86 catches for 1,072 yards and seven scores) will be the best player on the field; even without him, Fresno State enjoys a talent advantage.
December 26
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Louisiana Tech (-6) vs. Illinois
Winner: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: High (31)
Analysis: The Bulldogs feature a stingy defense (355.7 yards allowed per game) and a stud running back (Kenneth Dixon enters with 1,236 yards and 21 touchdowns). The Illini feature a coach (Tim Beckman) who would have been fired if his team hadn’t sprung an upset to become bowl eligible on a Northwestern squad forcing its backup quarterback into duty in the season finale due to injury.
Quick Lane Bowl
North Carolina (-3) vs. Rutgers
Winner: North Carolina
Confidence: Mid (21)
Analysis: Which UNC team will show up? The one that singed scoreboards and won four of five heading into the regular season finale? Or the one that got humiliated in that finale by NC State? Even a mid-point between the two should be enough to beat this mediocre Rutgers outfit.
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
UCF (-2) vs. North Carolina State
Winner: UCF
Confidence: Low (12)
Analysis: The Wolfpack were on a 1-5 skid prior to late-season wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina. I haven’t forgotten. The Golden Knights are 8-1 in their last nine games and have pulled out tight wins over quality opponents like Houston, BYU and East Carolina.
December 27
Military Bowl
Cincinnati (-3) vs. Virginia Tech
Winner: Virginia Tech
Confidence: Low (6)
Analysis: You’d have to be a sucker to trust the Hokies again. I’ll be that sucker. Cincy QB Gunner Kiel is going to have a long afternoon against Virginia Tech’s 14th-ranked pass defense.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Arizona State (-7.5) vs. Duke
Winner: Arizona State
Confidence: Mid (22)
Analysis: Duke hasn’t won a bowl game since 1961, though a strong pass defense makes them a live ‘dog. Do the Blue Devils have the firepower to keep up with RB D.J. Foster and WR Jaelen Strong?
Duck Commander Independence Bowl
Miami (-3.5) vs. South Carolina
Winner: Miami
Confidence: High (28)
Analysis: I commend the season long generosity of South Carolina’s defense, and they figure to be in the giving mood again a few days after Christmas against Duke Johnson, Phillip Dorsett, Clive Walford and company.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Boston College (-2.5) vs. Penn State
Winner: Penn State
Confidence: Low (5)
Analysis: The wrong team is favored here. James Franklin always placed a major emphasis on bowl games at Vanderbilt, and his first Nittany Lions squad is thrilled to be here after postseason sanctions were lifted.
National University Holiday Bowl
USC (-6.5) vs. Nebraska
Winner: USC
Confidence: Low (15)
Analysis: Nebraska can light up the scoreboard and should be considered a live ‘dog against USC, which lost road games to Boston College, Utah and UCLA. Coaching upheaval and a shaky defense makes it difficult to tab the Huskers outright, however.
December 29
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
West Virginia (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M
Winner: Texas A&M
Confidence: Low (3)
Analysis: How good is this matchup between a pair of top 12 rated passing attacks, both allergic to playing defense? The Aggies are 2-7 against the spread versus bowl-bound teams, and 2-8 in their last 10 overall, though I’m banking on extra practice time helping true frosh QB Kyle Allen. In their last four games, the Mountaineers have only beaten Iowa State. I also don’t trust West Virginia’s tenuous quarterback situation. Clint Trickett (concussion) has been cleared to play, but HC Dana Holgorsen refuses to name he or Skyler Howard starter.
Russell Athletic Bowl
Oklahoma (-3) vs. Clemson
Winner: Oklahoma
Confidence: High (37)
Analysis: Clemson, playing without QB Deshaun Watson and OC Chad Morris, who left to take over SMU, is in serious, serious trouble here. Oklahoma is getting all its injured offensive firepower back in time to make a definitive statement heading into 2015. Expect a Sooner blowout.
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Arkansas (-6) vs. Texas
Winner: Arkansas
Confidence: High (35)
Analysis: The Hogs went 9-3 against the spread this season, shut out back-to-back top 20 teams in November, and boast a stout defense and one of the nation’s most dynamic running back duos. Arkansas, to me, is the nation’s most underrated team. Texas averaged 11 points a game in its six losses. It simply can’t score on quality defenses. This game could get out of hand early.
December 30
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
LSU (-7) vs. Notre Dame
Winner: LSU
Confidence: Mid (20)
Analysis: I’m going to be on Notre Dame plus a touchdown—LSU and its anemic offense shouldn’t be giving seven points to any decent team on a neutral site—but a straight-up proposition becomes more interesting. With an uncertain QB situation at Notre Dame (Everett Golson and Malik Zaire will split snaps), I can’t quite get there in calling for an outright upset. Wouldn’t surprise me, though.
Belk Bowl
Georgia (-6.5) vs. Louisville
Winner: Georgia
Confidence: Low (13)
Analysis: I wouldn’t have a problem taking Louisville to win this game outright, either. Obviously the Bulldogs are playing without RB Todd Gurley, which suits former DC Todd Grantham (now the Cardinals DC) just fine. Louisville’s three losses? A two-point setback against Virginia in September, a six-point heartbreaker versus Clemson in October, and one of the season’s most gut-wrenching losses, allowing Florida State to storm back in the second half the day before Halloween. This team is far better than most realize.
Foster Farms Bowl
Stanford (-14) vs. Maryland
Winner: Stanford
Confidence: High (38)
Analysis: You’re looking here at the highest chalk on the board. Don’t overthink it by staring at the identical 7-5 records too long. Each Cardinal loss came against a top 25 squad, and Stanford is coming off a 21-point road spanking of UCLA.
December 31
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
TCU (-3) vs. Ole Miss
Winner: TCU
Confidence: Mid (26)
Analysis: I wouldn’t begrudge you for taking a shot on the underdog Rebels, but I don’t trust QB Bo Wallace enough to keep pace on the scoreboard. Even Ole Miss’ stellar defense won’t be able to hold the Horned Frogs under 30 points.
VIZIO Fiesta Bowl
Arizona (-3.5) vs. Boise State
Winner: Arizona
Confidence: Low (14)
Analysis: Forget the cute storyline of Boise State returning to the Fiesta Bowl. Theirs is an empty 11-2, and Arizona figures to let off some steam after getting embarrassed by Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Mississippi State (-7) vs. Georgia Tech
Winner: Georgia Tech
Confidence: Low (4)
Analysis: The Yellow Jackets have one of the nation’s most underrated teams. It pits its tricky triple-option attack—and a blocking scheme that gets into defenders knees and ankles—against a defense that boasts several defenders who are about to leave for the NFL. If you’re going to pick a big underdog outright, Georgia Tech isn’t a bad choice.
January 1
Outback Bowl
Auburn (-6.5) vs. Wisconsin
Winner: Auburn
Confidence: High (33)
Analysis: Wisconsin lost its coach to a lesser job, can’t throw, were informed by Melvin Gordon that he will declare for the draft after this game, and will be coached by an athletics director that many are blaming for the school’s inability to keep its coaches. The Badgers couldn’t stop Ohio State from picking up chunk ground yardage on every carry. Imagine what Gus Malzahn, Nick Marshall and company have in store for them.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Baylor (-3) vs. Michigan State
Winner: Baylor
Confidence: Mid (25)
Analysis: The Spartans allow only 19.9 points per game, sure, but lets toss out the cupcakes (Jacksonville St., Wyoming, EMU) and the plodding Big 10 offenses (Penn State, Rutgers, etc.), and focus on the three quality offenses they faced. Across from Oregon, Nebraska, and Ohio State, Sparty went 1-2 and coughed up 39 points per game. Heck, they gave up 31 to Purdue. Let’s cool it for a second with this talk of an immovable security unit. Baylor puts up 48.8 a pop and QB Bryce Petty will be healthier than he’s been all season just in time to stick it to the playoff committee.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Missouri (-5) vs. Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota
Confidence: Low (10)
Analysis: Missouri’s vaunted pass rush will be neutralized by Minnesota’s apathy towards the innovation of the forward pass. The Gophers ride Rotoworld darling RB David Cobb (1,548 yards) to the upset.
Rose Bowl: College Football Playoff Semifinal
Oregon (-9.5) vs. No. 3 Florida State
Winner: Oregon
Confidence: High (34)
Analysis: Let’s set aside Oregon’s offense for a second. This isn’t exactly a good matchup for Jameis Winston either. Oregon has created 25 takeaways (and lost eight balls, the fewest in the country), while Winston threw 17 interceptions and the Seminoles as a team lost 27 turnovers. If that trend continues, you might find yourself turning off this game in the third quarter and firing up Netflix.
Sugar Bowl: College Football Playoff Semifinal
Alabama (-9.5) vs. Ohio State
Winner: Alabama
Confidence: HIGH! (39)
Analysis: Outside of their 59-0 blitz of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, Ohio State limped to the finish line. I don’t believe they should be in the playoff, and Alabama will escort them from it promptly and thoroughly.
January 2
Armed Forces Bowl
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Houston
Winner: Pittsburgh
Confidence: High (30)
Analysis: Both teams are led by interim coaches. The Cougars barely became bowl eligible despite facing the No. 103 schedule in the country, while Pittsburgh, led by battering ram RB James Connor (1,675 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns) and fleet WR Tyler Boyd (1,149 yards and eight scores), lost four games by five points or less.
TaxSlayer Bowl
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Iowa
Winner: Iowa
Confidence number: Low (9)
Analysis: Don’t put much stock in this point spread—these teams are objectively even. I think an underrated Iowa defensive line will harass Vols QB Joshua Dobbs, and the Hawkeyes’ vicious offensive line, led by stud OT Brandon Scherff, should pave the way to a convincing, low-scoring victory.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Kansas State (pick ‘em) vs. UCLA
Winner: Kansas State
Confidence number: Mid (27)
Analysis: Horrible draw for NFL hopeful QB Brett Hundley, who we last saw folding against Stanford. Good luck against Bill Snyder’s schemes. Wildcats by double digits.
TicketCity Cactus Bowl
Washington (-5.5) vs. Oklahoma State
Winner: Washington
Confidence: High (32)
Analysis: The Cowboys can’t run the ball, and they also can’t protect the quarterback (3.1 sacks allowed per game, 114th in the country). Washington’s NFL-lite defense averages 3.5 sacks per game. This one could get ugly pronto.
January 3
Birmingham Bowl
Florida (-7) vs. East Carolina
Winner: Florida
Confidence: Low (11)
Analysis: I personally can’t wait to watch ECU WR Justin Hardy against UF CB Vernon Hargreaves. The game itself is tough to peg, with Florida’s anemic offense and strong defense squaring off against East Carolina’s dangerous offense and terrible defense. I’ll take the points against the spread, and give a tepid vote to the Gators in a heads-up proposition.
January 4
GoDaddy Bowl
Toledo (-3) vs. Arkansas State
Winner: Toledo
Confidence: Low (8)
Analysis: Don’t laugh: This could be one of the more visually appealing bowl games on the slate, featuring the country’s No. 19 (Toledo, 486.3 yards per game) and No. 21 (Arkansas State, 477.2 yards per game) offenses. The Rockets have a slight talent edge, and the Red Wolves are playing in the GoDaddy Bowl for the fourth straight season and must stare down apathy.
January 12
College Football Playoff National Championship
TBD vs. TBD
Winner: Alabama/Ohio State
Confidence: Mid (24)
Analysis: Some formats include this game, asking participants to choose either Oregon/Florida State or Alabama/Ohio State. The pick is Alabama over Oregon, 31-20.
