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With the NFL Draft just two weeks away, rumors and speculation continue to swirl on player landing spots.
Teams have begun making their top-30 visits, in hopes of going a little bit deeper with players they believe could change their franchise for years to come.
While some teams schedule visits with players that could legitimately fall to them, other teams are checking boxes in the event that the unexpected happens. Take, for example, the Jets and Giants, who hold the fourth and fifth overall pick and recently met with consensus No. 1 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson.
Sources: Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson is visiting the Giants in Jersey tomorrow, and will visit the Jets on Friday. Seems unlikely he'll get to either team, at 4 or 5, but they're doing their homework.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 12, 2022
Hutchinson already visited the Jags, and is set to visit the Lions next week.
It’s unlikely the Jets or Giants actually find themselves in a position to draft Hutchinson, but credit them for doing their homework.
Other news and rumors exist that will ultimately drive the betting market on these players, with perhaps a few coming to fruition. Trying to connect the dots on draft rumors and discern fact from fiction is what makes this time of year fun.
Here are some player props that are grabbing my interest two weeks removed from the first day of the Draft (odds via PointsBet):
No. 1 Overall Draft Pick: Travon Walker, Georgia (+350)
If the Jaguars pivot off of Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson at the No. 1 overall pick, the general thought is that it will be for Georgia’s Travon Walker.
As reported by Peter Schrager of NFL Network’s Good Morning Football, and later by NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, there’s belief that Jaguars GM Trent Baalke could be more intrigued by the athletic upside of Walker.
Schrager noted that in the past, Baalke has drafted several players above consensus, most notably tackle Anthony Davis (2010), EDGE Aldon Smith (2011) and defensive linemen Arik Armstead (2015) and DeForest Buckner (2016).
Garafolo later backed up the rumor.
More Travon Walker to #Jags at No. 1 chatter, this time from @PSchrags. I’ve heard the chatter Trent Baalke sees a lot of Aldon Smith in Walker. We’re 17 days away from Baalke and the Jags making their decision… https://t.co/yUOY24iYL2
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) April 11, 2022
Walker was one of three Georgia defensive players to blow away scouts at the combine, with Jordan Davis absolutely stealing the show.
When it comes to relative athletic score (RAS), Walker narrowly edges out Hutchinson. His explosiveness and agility both top Hutchinson’s, as does his 4.51 40-yard dash that he ran at 15 pounds heavier.
Early in the draft process, it was widely believed the Jaguars would address needs along the offensive line. Since then, the team franchise tagged LT Cam Robinson ahead of free agency, and signed free agent guard Brandon Scherff.
Hutchinson (-275) is still the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall, but an educated bet on Walker could be profitable. It seems unlikely that Jacksonville goes OL to start the draft.
No. 2 Overall Pick: Malik Willis, Liberty (+375)
The Detroit Lions and their staff had a chance to get an up close look at Liberty’s Malik Willis during the Senior Bowl. Like everyone else, they came away impressed.
Willis is the ultimate floor/ceiling prospect. A raw talent who transferred to Liberty following a disappointing stint at Auburn, Willis blossomed into a dual-threat quarterback under head coach Hugh Freeze.
Over the last two seasons, Willis has thrown for 5,107 yards, 47 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, while also rushing for 338-1822-27. His rocket arm combined with his rushing upside could turn him into the better version of Mike Vick or Lamar Jackson.
The Lions are in an interesting spot here. If they buy into Willis is a prospect, they absolutely have to take him at No. 2 overall. However, this is a team that holds two first round draft picks in the 2023 draft, and could find themselves with a top-five pick next season.
Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud could both declare for the 2023 draft, and be potentially safer picks than Willis.
Nevertheless, there’s no guarantee that Detroit finds itself in a position to select either prospect next year. If the Lions believe Willis has a chance to develop into a franchise quarterback, they would have to pull the trigger here. If Willis has to sit for a season, Jared Goff is in place to helm the team in 2022.
Player Draft Position: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon UNDER 5.5 (+110)
One of the most damaging things to come out of NFL Draft season is poor player narratives. We’ve seen them happen all too often, with the most recent iteration coming from the direction of Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Looking at Thibodeaux’s athleticism and body of work, there’s no reason to believe he can’t be justified as a top-five pick.
The knock against Thibodeaux has been his passion/fire for the game or lack thereof. Whether it’s true or not, these are the types of things that can drive down draft stock. The emergence of Georgia’s Travon Walker isn’t helping Thibodeaux’s case either, but Thibodeaux has met with nearly every team that holds a top-five pick.
It’s another busy week for Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, who heads to Detroit for a visit with the #Lions (No. 2 pick) on Tuesday, then has the #Giants (5) on Thursday and #Jets (4) on Friday, per sources. He visited the #Texans (3) last week.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) April 11, 2022
As an athlete, Thibodeaux falls just outside the elite athleticism of Walker, but has far more impressive collegiate numbers.
While Thibodeaux is unlikely to go No. 1 overall, him falling anywhere in the top-five is more than possible.
I wrote about Malik Willis at No. 2 to the Lions in the above portion of this article, but it’s worth noting that Detroit sent seven of its staff/front office members to Oregon’s pro day. It was a showing that was enough to draw headlines.
The Texans, Jets and Giants could all justifiably shoot their shot on Thibodeaux, with the Texans and Jets being particularly intriguing. They each hold two first round picks, and could address another need later in the draft while securing an elite pass rusher early.
As a final footnote to this article, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. mocked Thibodeaux to the Jets at fourth overall in a mock draft that dropped hours before the publishing of this article.
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