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Week 0 of the college football season got off to about as fun a start as we could have hoped for. Northwestern’s 31-28 upset win over Nebraska was perfect for some early-season drama, while Austin Peay nearly pulled off the upset of Western Kentucky falling 38-27 to the Hilltoppers despite wide receiver Drae McCray’s 7-90-2 performance.
I’m also happy to report that the offseason (at least for now) hasn’t affected me too negatively in the DFS department.
Outside of Nebraska wide receiver Omar Manning being ruled out for last weekend’s game, my favorite plays of the week performed as follows:
- Casey Thompson ($7,200): 23.4 points (QB5)
- Evan Hull ($6,300): 31.4 points (RB2)
- Drae McCray ($4,700): 29.7 points (WR2)
I also can’t overlook the flub of a performance Utah State running back Pailate Makakona ($4,500) returned. Somehow providing us just 0.1 points in a game against UConn that was far from the expected blowout. Utah State defeated UConn 31-20, but the Aggies entered as 24-point favorites against the Jim Mora-led Huskies. Props to UConn for keeping it close.
This week’s early-afternoon slate features 14 games.
I’ve switched up my approach to tackling some games this upcoming season, in hopes of providing more actionable content in 2022. Here’s a look at some things we should know, and players we could target on this Week 1 DFS Slate.
The Rates
One thing that I’d like to offer up to the fine folks this season is the play rates of every team on the slate. Having done some digging for this in the past, I know it’s not the easiest information to come by, but it can be invaluable information to have when building out your rosters.
Not accounting for FCS Sam Houston, here are the 2021 play rates for every FBS team on this weekend’s slate.
Team | Pass Rate | Rush Rate |
Appalachian State | 0.42 | 0.58 |
Arizona | 0.51 | 0.49 |
Arkansas | 0.35 | 0.65 |
Boston College | 0.39 | 0.61 |
Bowling Green | 0.52 | 0.48 |
Buffalo | 0.41 | 0.59 |
BYU | 0.45 | 0.55 |
Cincinnati | 0.46 | 0.54 |
Colorado State | 0.43 | 0.57 |
East Carolina | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Georgia | 0.43 | 0.57 |
Houston | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Maryland | 0.53 | 0.47 |
Michigan | 0.41 | 0.59 |
Mississippi | 0.42 | 0.58 |
NC State | 0.54 | 0.46 |
North Carolina | 0.43 | 0.57 |
Oklahoma | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Oregon | 0.43 | 0.57 |
Rutgers | 0.44 | 0.56 |
San Diego State | 0.39 | 0.61 |
Texas A&M | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Troy | 0.53 | 0.47 |
UCLA | 0.39 | 0.61 |
USF | 0.42 | 0.58 |
UTEP | 0.43 | 0.57 |
UTSA | 0.45 | 0.55 |
Of the teams on this slate, it’s worth noting that North Carolina already enjoyed a Week 0 win over Florida A&M. In that game the Tar Heels threw at a 48% rate, attempting 37 passes on the day despite a 28-14 halftime lead. How much you choose to take away from that game is up to you, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Tar Heels lean more on the run with an inexperienced quarterback in Drake Maye ($7,100) set to make his first start against FBS competition.
I also won’t allow myself to be deceived by Colorado State’s 2021 numbers as they enter their first season under head coach Jay Norvell, whose Air Raid style of play should make the Rams one of the more aggressive passing teams in the nation this season.
Norvell saw a handful of Nevada players follow him to Colorado State, including quarterback Clay Millen, who is expected to start this weekend’s game against the Wolverines. Of course, Norvell and company may need to wait a week or two to see their efforts pay off, with a tough road matchup against Michigan on tap.
Quarterback Rush Attempts
It’s a tale as old as time. Ever since I can remember, college football has curiously lumped sacks into quarterback rush attempts, which is why players like Florida International’s Max Bortenschlager rushed 50 times for -250 yards last season. Fortunately, the fine folks at Pro Football Focus have seen this flaw and funneled out the sacks and negative rushing yards they result in.
Of course, DraftKings still follows college football scorekeeping, meaning a sack will count as negative rushing yards for your quarterbacks. But I’m still hoping to get a more accurate look at quarterback rushing attempts in 2022 as it feels like an edge worth grinding.
Here’s a look at the quarterbacks on this weekend’s slate and their rush attempts from last season, per PFF’s numbers.
NOTE: * denotes player who is no longer with the team/expected to start in Week 1 of 2022 season.
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Appalachian State | 27 | 267 | 3 | |
KJ Jefferson | Arkansas | 99 | 803 | 6 |
Arizona | 10 | 262 | 2 | |
Arizona | 10 | 99 | 0 | |
Boston College | 33 | 349 | 5 | |
Boston College | 22 | 154 | 2 | |
Bowling Green | 19 | 272 | 4 | |
Buffalo | 42 | 240 | 4 | |
Buffalo | 22 | 143 | 3 | |
BYU | 54 | 379 | 3 | |
Cincinnati | 76 | 542 | 6 | |
Colorado State | 64 | 565 | 2 | |
East Carolina | 55 | 480 | 6 | |
Georgia | 27 | 347 | 1 | |
Houston | 41 | 384 | 2 | |
Maryland | 46 | 318 | 2 | |
Michigan | 25 | 100 | 1 | |
Michigan | 22 | 152 | 2 | |
Mississippi | 74 | 748 | 11 | |
NC State | 18 | 79 | 2 | |
North Carolina | 76 | 1106 | 11 | |
Oklahoma | 45 | 559 | 6 | |
Oklahoma | 19 | 128 | 3 | |
Anthony Brown * | Oregon | 106 | 748 | 9 |
Rutgers | 72 | 377 | 2 | |
San Diego State | 38 | 265 | 1 | |
San Diego State | 27 | 216 | 5 | |
Texas A&M | 15 | 90 | 1 | |
Troy | 12 | 34 | 1 | |
UCLA | 62 | 706 | 9 | |
USF | 64 | 439 | 4 | |
UTEP | 36 | 83 | 3 | |
UTEP | 22 | 112 | 0 | |
UTSA | 70 | 667 | 6 |
This chart will feature only current players after we have our Week 1 data, but for now, there are a handful of interesting things to note.
One that immediately stands out to me is USF’s Timmy McClain -- who is now in the transfer portal after losing the starting job to Gerry Bohanon this offseason. You won’t find Bohannon on this list, but last season at Baylor the veteran quarterback rushed 68 times for 371 yards and nine scores per PFF. Bohanon averaged 5.7 rush attempts per game, while also throwing for 2,213-18-7. Price at just $5,600 on DraftKings and drawing a home game against BYU, I think Bohanon is a rather intriguing option on this weekend’s slate.
BYU’s defense allowed 24.8 points per game last season and actually fell to a Bohanon-led Baylor team by a score of 38-24 last season at McLane Stadium. Bohanon won’t have nearly the roster talent in this one, but his rushing upside and familiarity with BYU’s defense should make him a decent enough play at cost.
Mispriced Player of the Week
Omarion Hampton, RB (UNC)
DraftKings Price: $3,000
We’ll have to monitor this one closely throughout the week, but Omarion Hampton led the Tar Heels in rush attempts last weekend against Florida A&M. His 14-101-2 line got off to a hot start when the four-star true freshman totaled five carries in the first quarter alone. In a blowout win over FAMU, it’s hard to get too excited about Hampton just yet, but the fact that he was the only back with double-digit carries in this one could signal something.
The team reportedly likes him and has him listed as second on the depth chart. He and the Tar Heels draw a tough matchup at Appalachian State, but it would take just nine points for Hampton to 3x his value. It will be interesting to see how the market responds to him after last week’s performance.
Players to Target
KJ Jefferson, QB (Arkansas)
DraftKings Price: $7,400
When it comes to fantasy, KJ Jefferson is the kind of Konami Code quarterback we hope to jam into our lineups on a weekly basis.
Arkansas’ signal-caller gets a tough challenge in a Week 1 matchup against Cincinnati, but won’t be facing cornerback Sauce Gardner, who left for the NFL after last season.
Last season for the Razorbacks, Jefferson totaled 99 carries for 803 yards and six touchdowns per the PFF numbers. He totaled double-digit carries in three of his final four games of the season, including a 13-134-1 performance against Penn State in the 2022 Outback Bowl.
Jefferson also threw for 2,676 yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions last season and has proven plenty capable creating big plays downfield. His 57.5% completion on deep balls last season ranked third-best in the nation. Of course, he’ll have to find a new deep target in 2022 with Treylon Burks now in the NFL. Burks caught 12-of-18 deep balls for 456 yards and four touchdowns on his own.
Nevertheless, I like Jefferson at his price, at home against Cincinnati. The rushing floor presents too high a ceiling.
Cade McNamara, QB (Michigan)
DraftKings Price: $6,400
Sometimes DFS platforms straight-up goof on their pricing -- they did so here with Cade McNamara.
Caught in a battle with J.J. McCarthy, McNamara has been named as the Week 1 starter against Colorado State, with McCarthy expected to receive the Week 2 start against Hawaii.
Despite these reports, it’s McCarthy who is coming in at $8,000 on DraftKings, while McNamara, the starter, sits at $6,400.
On one hand, this could be an absolute blowout that has little to do with McNamara’s success on the field. However, Harbaugh appears set on finding out which quarterback is worthy of the starting role come Week 3, which could open the door for McNamara to show his stuff against an overmatched Rams team.
Assuming he’s allowed to uncork a few balls and utilize his rushing ability, McNamara could turn into a nice value on the Week 1 slate. Of course, you also have to consider the thousands of other grinders who have spotted this discrepancy and opted to take advantage.
Rostering McNamara may be one of the chalkiest plays this week, but with so many other quarterbacks playing in competitive games, he could come in lower than expected.
Brenden Brady, RB (UTSA)
DraftKings Price: $4,800
The Roadrunners released their Week 1 depth chart on Monday, with Brenden Brady appearing to have the first crack at RB1 duties. A veteran on UTSA’s roster, Brady rushed for 65-308-4 last season, which included a 16-76-1 line against a stout San Diego State defense in the Peach Bowl.
Week 1 Depth Chart ⬇️ #210TriangleOfToughness | #BirdsUp 🤙 pic.twitter.com/uXhiuKdeI5
— UTSA Football 🏈 (@UTSAFTBL) August 29, 2022
UTSA returns quarterback Frank Harris (also a great value at $7,300) for another season to face a Houston defense that lost two key members of its defense to the 2022 NFL Draft. Also playing as the hosts in this on, I like UTSA’s chances to get off to a solid start against the Cougars in Week 1. The Roadrunners’ 55% rush rate from last season makes Brady’s price all the more encouraging. The question now becomes whether or not he can deliver at such a bargain.
Given Harris’ ability to move the ball downfield, I like Brady’s chances at a few meaningful touches.
Chris Brooks, RB (BYU)
DraftKings Price: $6,100
Gerry Bohanon makes for an interesting play as a rushing quarterback who may benefit from a negative game script.
BYU’s Chris Brooks makes sense as a running back whose team could be playing ahead for much of this week’s matchup against USF.
Brooks has already been listed as the No. 1 back atop BYU’s depth chart and is on a team that rushed at a 55% rate last season. If this game was played in 2021 you’d be all over getting Brooks in your lineup after BYU graded as one of the best run-blocking teams last season on PFF (87.3) while USF’s run defense graded as one of the worst (52.4). The Bulls’ tackling grade of 33.7 last season was absolutely abysmal -- which I’m told is not great for stopping running backs.
USF’s 2022 win total projection also sits at 4.5, leading me to believe we won’t see a much-improved squad in this one.
Last season, BYU’s Tyler Allgeier was one of the best running backs you could find in daily fantasy. His 276 carries led the time by a wide margin (no other running back had more than 61) while his 28 receptions for 199 yards also made for a solid floor.
Is Brooks the next bell cow in head coach Kalani Sitaki’s offense? We don’t know. But if he is, his $6,100 price point on DraftKings against USF may be the best we see for him all season.
Rakim Jarrett, WR (Maryland)
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Maryland has wide receiver Dontay Demus ($6,800) returning to the fold after a devastating leg injury against Iowa ended his 2021 season. While Demus is expected to serve as the team’s No. 1 receiving option, fellow receiver Rakim Jarrett should be a nice value play against Buffalo.
Jarrett stepped up in Demus’ absences last season and ended the year with a receiving line of 62-829-5. Oddly, Jarrett scored just one touchdown from Week 6 through the rest of the season, but he averaged 69.1 yards per game with Demus out.
Running one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the nation, Maryland returns quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3,860-26-11) and could improve on their 54% pass rate from last season.
Darryl Jones, WR (NC State)
DraftKings Price: $5,000
Now on to a former Maryland receiver. NC State pulled Darryl Jones from the transfer portal earlier this offseason, and the veteran receiver appears to have impressed thus far.
The third-cheapest NC State receiver on the slate, Jones has a chance to show out in Week 1 in what should be a somewhat competitive game against East Carolina. While I expect NC State (-11.5) to walk away winners in this one, Jones could see plenty of work in a Wolfpack offense that supported three 500+ yard receivers in 2021.
During his time at Maryland, Jones totaled 49 receptions for 705 yards and two scores, with his best season coming last year (23-319-2). With NC State also looking to replace last year’s receiving leader Emeka Emezie (60-802-6), there could be enough for Jones to earn a significant portion of this offense’s receiving work.
