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If you’re like me, you spent Week 10 of the college football season supporting the troops while rooting for little to no points.
Army and Air Force faced off in the Commanders’ Classic in a game that ended with a 13-7 Air Force (go Falcons) victory, as the under (40) hit once again. With just 10 combined points between the two teams heading into halftime, there was little doubt that those who bet the under would once again be on the right side of history.
When it came to last week’s matchup between Boise State (-8) and BYU, I found myself flying a bit too close to the sun as I once again picked the Broncos to pull off another win ATS (which would have marked their fourth-straight).
Instead, Boise State came crashing back to earth, losing 31-28 to BYU, marking the third time in the last four meetings that the underdog in this game has walked away as the outright winner. Perhaps I should’ve paid a bit closer to the recent history there -- we’ll never know!
With Week 11 now upon us, we turn our eyes toward two more G5 conference games. With my sights set on two home favorites that look like superior teams in nearly every aspect of the game, here’s a look at the picks I’ll be rolling with this weekend.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
In each of their last three meetings, Air Force has beaten New Mexico by 22+ points while going 2-0 ATS. In their last two games, the Falcons have outscored the Lobos 66-10, and could be in line to thrash them again this weekend.
On paper, this one looks like a mismatch in every sense of the word.
Air Force’s offense is humming at a 50% success rate on the season -- good for 12th-best in the nation and is 10th in rushing success rate at 52.2%. In regards to defensive success rate, the Lobos and Falcons look evening matched until you consider that the worst part of New Mexicos’ defensive game is their run defense. Facing a Falcons offense that’s running at an 83.2% rate, being bad against the run isn’t ideal for the Lobos this weekend -- especially on the road in a game script that should be very much pro-Falcon.
If that’s not bad enough, consider for a moment that the Lobos rank dead last in the nation in yards per play (3.6), 130th in points per game (12.9) and 128th in points per play (0.209). One of the worst offenses in the nation playing alongside a defense that can’t stop the one thing Air Force does well sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Falcons running back Brad Roberts, who leads the Mountain West in rushing (206-1073-13), should have a field day against the Lobos in this one and carved them up for 29-142-2 last season. The Falcons opened this game as 24-point favorites and have since seen that number drop to 21.5. Nobody is concerned about Air Force choking this game away, but perhaps a bit too much credit is being given to a 2-7 Lobos team that also happens to be 3-5-1 ATS.
I don’t expect New Mexico to do much in this one offensively (they haven’t all season) and could see another scenario in which the Falcons run away with a 22+ point win for the fourth consecutive season.
Pick: Air Force -21.5
The 8-1 Chanticleers play host to the 5-4 Golden Eagles beneath the lights on Saturday. Coastal Carolina, despite the loss of several key contributors from the 2021 season, looks poised for a run at a Sun Belt championship, thanks in large to quarterback Grayson McCall (2314-21-1) and wide receivers Jared Brown (39-701-5) and Sam Pinckney (49-708-2).
Unfortunately, Coastal will be without McCall, who suffered a foot injury in the team’s Week 10 win over Appalachian State, and is expected to be sidelined for the next several ways. McCall’s injury will give way to Jarrett Guest to make his first career start.
Per PFF, Guest has attempted just 17 passes in his career, completing 12 of those attempts for 139 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Despite the loss of McCall, Guest and Chanticleers could still cover this 4.5-point spread at home.
Coastal’s potent offense currently ranks 44th in the nation in points per game (32.2) and is also 14th in the nation in overall offensive success rate at 49.6%. McCall has been the catalyst for this success, ranking sixth in the nation in YPA (9.5), and 11th in big-time throws per PFF (19) but Southern Miss’ defense could still be vulnerable to a high-powered Coastal offense.
The Eagles currently rank 111th in overall defensive success rate and 107th in success rate against the pass (36.5%). Throwing at just a 45.7% rate, the Chanticleers are nowhere near the most pass-heavy team in the nation, but they are one of the most efficient -- ranking 24th in the nation in points per play (0.460).
Southern Miss, who currently ranks 87th in the nation in points per game (27.3), ranks 117th in overall offensive success rate (37.1%) and is averaging a paltry 4.4 yards per play (121st). Running back Frank Gore Jr. (150-742-5) is one of the more versatile players of the Eagles’ offense and put his quarterback skills on display late last season when the team turned to a Wildcat approach on offense.
Quarterbacks Zach Wilcke (1157-9-9) or Jake Lange (110-01-) could see action in this one, but neither has been particularly lethal through the air.
Southern Miss has some decent wins on their record this season, but keeping this one within 4.5 points could prove to be too much against one of the better offenses in the nation.
Pick: Coastal Carolina -4.5
2022 G5 Record: 6-13-1
Overall G5 Record: 20-24-2
