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Duke at North Carolina (-20)
The rivalry of Tobacco Road! Just kidding, it’s for the Victory Bell.
I’m not even sure if they mention Tobacco Road for football, but we have to make this game exciting somehow since there isn’t a basketball involved.
All jokes aside, Sam Howell could have a day against Duke. He has turned his season around following the Virginia Tech game. Despite a 45-22 smackdown via Georgia Tech last week, Howell continued to impress with two touchdowns to no interceptions.
What intrigues me is North Carolina coming off a loss. Mack Brown and the Tar Heels are 7-3 ATS coming off a loss, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
UNC is 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings of this rivalry (pictured below), including three straight covers. When at home, UNC is 4-2 ATS in the last six against Duke. All quality numbers.
When considering Duke has failed to cover the last six games versus ACC opponents, last three versus UNC and come into this meeting 1-6 ATS in the previous seven as a road dog overall -- I like North Carolina from a trend and historical standpoint.
Duke must contain Howell, who has 10 touchdowns, one interception and 965 yards over the last three games. He surpassed 300 yards in the last three games after V-Tech.
The Tar Heels won 56-24 last season and Howell tossed three touchdowns to one interception along with 235 yards on 18/25 passing. That was at Duke. This meeting will be at North Carolina.
It might seem odd to take a team that just lost by 23 to win by 20 the following game, but Duke is not what their record says they are and North Carolina is one of the better teams in the ACC.
The Blue Devils beat Kansas, North Carolina AT&T and Northwestern. Any other season the Northwestern win would be very impressive, but they are not what they were in years prior.
Charlotte beat Duke to open the season and that same Charlotte team lost to Georgia State and barely beat Middle Tennessee.
North Carolina beat Georgia State 59-17 and Howell threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Tar Heels by three scores.
Pick: North Carolina -20 (1.5u)
Central Michigan at Miami OH (-1.5)
I should have tweeted this yesterday! The line was Central Michigan -1.5, and I thought, let’s bypass the +1.5 and take Miami as home dogs +110.
Well, now Miami is -105 and -115 on the ML, and all I have to say is, real recognize real.
The Miami Red Hawks are 12-3 SU in the last 15 games versus MAC opponents and 12-3 at home versus MAC opponents, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Miami has won 10-straight home games overall!
In that 10-game home winning streak, the Red Hawks covered seven times (pictured below). The three times they did not cover, well the spreads were -29, -36.5 and -39.5, so we do not have to worry about that.
On the other hand, Central Michigan is 4-6 on the ML in the past 10 road games. Against MAC opponents, CMU is also 4-6 on the ML and 3-7 on the ML as the road dog.
Central Michigan rallied back last week down 20-10 to beat FIU -- the Chippewas were -12 point favorites in that matchup.
Central Michigan allowed 395 yards through the air against FIU and ranks 108th in pass defense through four games. That will be a problem on the road versus Miami’s Brett Gabbert.
Gabbert, the brother of Tampa Bay Buccaneers brother Blaine Gabbert, has started three games for Miami.
With Gabbert under center, Miami barely lost to Minnesota 31-26 and dropped a game to the now 4-0 Army Black Knights, 23-10 in his two losses.
The Redhawks quarterback has five touchdowns and two interceptions while only playing Long Island at home. This matchup is the first big home start as MAC competition is underway.
Central Michigan barely beat FIU at home and crushed Robert Morris 45-0 -- which we won that bet at CMU -37.5.
Let’s go 2-0 on Central Michigan games and fade the Chippewas in Miami of Ohio. Grab the Redhawks on the ML, as it does not get much more exciting than this!
Pick: Miami OH ML (1.5u)
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Cincinatti (-1.5) at Notre Dame
I didn’t bet Cincy last week, so in theory, I probably should not bet them here to avoid chasing. While I lean them to win this game, there is a better bet on the board.
I should start by saying both teams have won a lot in the past 25 games, 22 each to be exact. Cincy has won eight straight as a road favorite, while Notre Dame won five straight in the home dog role.
However, dating back to 2018, the Under has hit nine times in the Bearcats’ last 14 road games (64.2%), per NBC’s Edge Finder (pictured below).
When Notre Dame is a home underdog, which has only happened 10 times since 2008, the Under is 6-4 (60%) and 5-1 (83.3%) since 2013.
Entering this game, I smell another Under as Notre Dame’s quarterback situation isn’t looking great versus Cincy.
Jack Coan is dealing with an ankle injury but is healthy enough to start. Coan and sophomore Drew Pyne have split reps in practice with freshman Tyler Buchner receiving specially designed packages for running.
The Fighting Irish will use a two-quarterback system throughout the game and as a fan of college football, I will never back a two-quarterback system at home or on the road.
The Bearcats defense has allowed nine of its last 10 opponents to score 24 or fewer points, including all three this season. Notre Dame held Purdue and Wisconsin to 13 points each in the past two games after surrendering 38 and 29 points in the first two weeks.
The Fighting Irish’s defense has settled in and they’ll need a big game versus Desmond Ridder if Notre Dame wants to win. With both teams best unit being the defense, expect us to see plenty of it between the two ranked opponents.
Pick: Notre Dame-Cincinatti Under 50.5 (1u) -- play down to 48.5-49.0
Oklahoma (-11.5) at Kansas State
You should skip this if Oklahoma burnt you more than twice this season because you probably do not want to hear it.
However, I was only burnt once, so I will ride one more time.
The best play in this game should be the first half spread for the Sooners. Despite being the home team, Kansas State does not have much going for them entering this contest besides they beat Oklahoma the last two meetings. The Sooners were -1590 and -5000 on the ML and lost.
However, Oklahoma led 21-7 at half of the previous loss to Kansas State with Spencer Rattler and trailed 24-23 with Jalen Hurts.
Skylar Thompson was the quarterback in both upset wins over Oklahoma (the Sooners’ kryptonite), but he is still injured and out for this matchup.
The Wildcats starter, Will Howard, is banged up and Jaren Lewis split time in the second half of Kansas State’s loss to Oklahoma State. That isn’t favorable considering Kansas State needed to score 86 points in the two upset victories over Oklahoma.
Since Thompson went down, Kansas State scored 38 against Nevada (21 4th quarter points) and 20 at Oklahoma State (13 first-half points). After half against Oklahoma State, Howard and Lewis managed to put up seven points.
Kansas State running back Deuce Vaughn only managed 22 yards on 13 carries last week, the lowest total of his career. Against Oklahoma, Vaughn recorded 35 yards and one touchdown on eight carries last season.
If Vaughn doesn’t have hols to gallup, Oklahoma will control this game against subpar quarterback play and the other Vaughn will win this bet.
Pick: Oklahoma First Half -6 (1u) -- play this out to -7
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