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College Football Week 11: North Texas vs UTEP

Austin Aune

Austin Aune

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

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UTEP (-1.5) at North Texas: O/U 55.5

Come on now! The Mean Green as home dogs?

You have to be kidding me? North Texas has week in and week out, proved they are better than their record indicates and now, they catch UTEP at the best possible time.

UTEP lost two straight games, and do not get me wrong, they arguably the better team overall but are not playing like it.

The Miners dropped two consecutive games to Florida Atlantic (28-25) and UTSA (44-23). The Mean Green have won two straight games against Rice (30-24 OT) and Southern Miss (38-14).

UTEP allowed 275 rushing yards last week, and that sounded the alarm for me. North Texas now ranks 11th in the country with 227.9 rushing yards per game and owns over 2,000 yards and 18 scores on the ground.

The Miners have the NCAA’s 23rd-best rushing defense at 117.4 yards per game but permitted 130 yards to FAU two weeks ago, 93 yards to their starting running back, and 169 to UTSA’s. The tide is turning, and North Texas will be looking to expose a leaky rush defense.

When these two teams meet, North Texas has won five out of eight meetings (62.5%), including four-straight. Underdog, they say?

NBC’s Edge Finder shows that North Texas has won three straight at home versus UTEP and four out of five overall (80%). The Mean Green have NEVER been a home underdog to the Miners. The disrespect.

N Texas vs UTEP

N Texas vs UTEP

We go for four straight wins betting on North Texas. This squad has covered all three bets for us and five out of the last six games overall.

They are currently riding a two-game ML winning streak and face a UTEP team that is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite versus the C-USA since 2005!

UTEP does not get tagged as a road favorite often but did once this season versus Southern Miss -- a 26-14 win and ATS cover (-1.5).

North Texas just played Southern Miss and went down 14-0 before pouring on 38-straight points to cover the -4.5 or -5.5 spread.

Back the Mean Green to continue its winning ways against the UTEP Miners, a team they beat four straight times.

Pick: North Texas +1.5 (1u)

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