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Here are our Week 11 staff picks for 10-plus point “chalk” favorites (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Thor Nystrom: Virginia Tech (-11.5) over Duke
Hokies starting QB Braxton Burmeister is questionable with a shoulder injury. Even if he can’t go, and even if he is worth a couple points on the spread, there’s still leeway between my adjusted spread of VT -17.9 and the PointsBet line. The market is cold on Virginia Tech because they’ve lost four of five. HC Justin Fuente‘s seat is white-hot. But Tech is 3-0 with a 13.7 PPG win margin against teams ranked SP+ 72 or lower. Duke, which ranks SP+ No. 89, comes in having lost five-straight. The Blue Devils haven’t beaten a team ranked above SP+ No. 87 (Northwestern). Winning this game would jive Virginia Tech’s record to 5-5 with Miami and Virginia coming, two games they’ll likely be single-digit underdogs in. SP+ gives the Hokies a 66% chance of winning one of the two, giving Fuente a realistic chance to rally into bowl season in a last-ditch effort to stave off the mob calling for his head. (YTD: 1-2 ATS)
Zachary Krueger: Michigan State (-12) over Maryland
Maryland is 0-5 ATS in its last five games (against Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota and Indiana). The Terps failed to cover by a 16.6 PPG average margin. Perhaps more alarmingly, in lieu of the matchup at hand, was the 186.8/2.4 rushing yards and touchdowns allowed per game. Maryland is getting trampled on the ground. And they’re about to play one of the nation’s most dominant rushing attacks, led by Heisman hopeful RB Kenneth Walker. Michigan State comes in off a 40-29 upset loss to Purdue as 2.5-point favs. Sparty had been reliable at the window before that and remain 6-3 ATS. Though the Spartans are a little banged up at other positions, Walker will light up Maryland’s run defense with such regularity that Sparty should both be able to jump to an early lead and also deflate the ball late with a big lead. (YTD: 3-5 ATS)
John Supowitz: Stanford (-12.5) over Oregon State
Stanford’s upset win over Oregon seems like an eternity ago. Incredibly, the Cardinal have lost four straight since. With Tanner McKee out against Utah, Stanford trotted out a three-man poo-poo platter of Jack West, Isaiah Sanders, and Ari Patu and got ransacked 52-7. McKee is trending towards not playing again. HC David Shaw has already said Patu, the true freshman, will get the start if that’s the case. The preseason QB4 has apparently bypassed Shaw’s season-opening starter West, as well as the veteran Air Force transfer Sanders. Stanford got sliced and diced by the Utes for 441 rushing yards. And now they have to travel to Corvallis, never a fun trip, to try and stop Pac-12 rushing leader B.J. Baylor. Baylor’s 6.3 YPC ranks No. 2 among RBs with 150+ carries. Have I mentioned Stanford’s run defense ranks No. 127? Yikes. Oregon State by margin. (YTD: 4-4 ATS)
Tyler Forness: Western Kentucky (-18) over Rice
Western Kentucky’s high-scoring offense is so fun. The Hilltoppers are only 5-4. But when they lose, they tend to lose close, and when they win, they tend to win big, as evidenced by a +107 season point differential and a 7.0 PPG margin in the four losses. Houston Baptist grad transfer QB Bailey Zappe has gone from one the best FCS’ best quarterbacks to one of the FBS’ best quarterbacks, leading the nation with 3,688 yards passing and 37 touchdowns. Fellow HBU transfer WR Jerreth Stearns leads the nation with 114 receptions and 11 TD and ranks No. 2 with 1,266 receiving yards. The Hilltoppers are 6-3 ATS, but, more importantly, 4-1 ATS in the five outright wins. Again: When WKU wins, they tend to win big, The ‘Toppers face a Rice squad that is 3-6. That includes a fluky upset win over UAB where Rice finished with a 6% SP+ postgame win expectancy. When Rice loses, the Owls tends to get dominated: They’ve had a win expectancy 8% or lower in every other game but the two other wins over FCS Texas Southern and fellow bottom-feeder Southern Miss. The Owls’ defense ranks No. 115 SP+. The Hilltoppers’ powerful should feast. (YTD: 1-6-1 ATS)
Eric Froton: Appalachian State (-22.5) over South Alabama
South Alabama got bad news this week when starting QB Jake Bentley was ruled out for the remainder of the season. In his place against Troy last week, QB2 Desmond Trotter threw 32 passes for just 138 yards. Beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, he was just one-of-six passing. Appalachian State feasts on one-dimensional offenses, beating Arkansas State, ULM and Georgia State by 29 points or more in their last five games. With Appy at home facing a limited quarterback starting for the first time this season, the Mountaineers blow out the Jaguars on Saturday. (YTD: 3-2 ATS)
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