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SMU at UCF (-3): O/U 65.0
This game was pushed back twice due to Hurricane Ian and will be taking place on Wednesday at 7 PM ET.
These squads had extra days of prep versus each other, which is something they don’t even need because these coaches know each other like the back of their hands.
If you are looking for a full year-by-year breakdown on the Gus Malzahn and Rhett Lashlee relationship, Brian Smith at Sports Illustrated put together an awesome two-minute read on the topic.
However, a quick breakdown of the two would be that their friendship goes all the way back to an Arkansas High School in 2004 when Gus Malzahn was the head coach and Rhett Lashlee was the QB coach.
They have highs of winning a Championship with Cam Newton at Auburn together and lows of going to Arkansas State together before going back to Auburn for a few years and splitting up in 2019.
What that being said, these two know each other well and it’s a classic case of the mentor versus the understudy.
Lashlee enters a series where the Mustangs are 0-8 on the ML as an underdog versus the Knights and 0-5 on the ML at UCF dating back to 2007.
UCF has won all five home games by an average of 24.6 points per game and at least 10 points in every meeting between 2008 and 2018. UCF is 4-0-1 ATS in those games, covering four-straight, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The graph below shows UCF as the favorite in the series, going 5-2-1 ATS (71.4%) and 8-0 on the ML.
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The Bounce House, UCF’s home, is a tough place to play and with this being a Wednesday game, it could be tough to gauge how many fans are in attendance, but with the Hurricane, UCF absolutely wants to get a win in Florida.
Students did go back to class on Tuesday, the day before the game, so we could have a packed house with people looking to have fun and escape reality for a few hours from the Hurricane and everything it has done.
The Mustangs finished last year 0-4 ATS and 1-3 (25%) on the ML away from home in conference play (AAC). Dating back to 2019, SMU is 2-10 ATS (16.6%) and 5-7 on the ML (41.6%) as the road team in conference play.
The two covers came as favorites versus USF and Temple. SMU is 1-7 ATS and on the ML (12.5%) in the past eight games as a road underdog in AAC play.
SMU played Maryland and TCU this season, losing and failing to cover as +2.5 underdogs in both games, but this meeting versus UCF has a few notes worth making.
The Knights defense will be the first top 65 unit that the Mustangs will face this season and UCF hasn’t lost two home games in a season since 2016, not counting 2020’s COVID year with no fans in the stands.
UCF is tied for 26th in total defense, ranks 8th in scoring defense (13.5 points per game), 14th in passing yards allowed per game (169.8), 70th in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2) and 10th in 3rd-down defense (26.8%).
The Knights also have the third-best rushing offense in the country at 275.8 yards per game, trailing only Air Force and Army! The Mustangs have the 107th ranked rushing defense (180.5 ypg) and 69th in scoring defense (25.5 ppg).
I like the UCF advantage in this game against an SMU offense that put up 55 points at home in a 55-28 win versus UCF last year. SMU also had a few players hit the transfer portal the past few days, which could be a distraction.
UCF’s offense has a major advantage versus SMU’s defense compared to UCF’s defense neutralizing SMU’s offense this time around. This is a revenge spot for UCF at home, with a much better rushing attack and stronger defense.
Give me the Knights -3 (-105) for 1 unit. I would prefer not to play this past -3 or -150 on the ML.
Pick: UCF -3 (1u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
