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Georgia (-6.5) vs. Alabama: O/U 48.5
Did you know that Alabama has been an underdog only one time since 2010? That was in 2015 against Georgia. Alabama won 38-10.
Coincidence, I think not. I am not saying we see a beatdown in this meeting, but I think the dog has a fighting chance in this matchup.
Nick Saban will have his squad ready, and there are some factors worth pointing out.
Bama has won six straight meetings against Georgia. Georgia is undefeated, and we all know how difficult it is to finish a season undefeated at any level. Then, there is coaching and quarterback play.
Alabama’s Bryce Young is the front-runner for the Heisman, and Georgia has yet to face a quarterback like him. The best quarterbacks Georgia faced were DJ Uiagalelei and Hendon Hooker this season.
We have yet to see a top-tier quarterback go against this Bulldogs’ defense outside of those two. Georgia has yet to allow a team to exceed 17 points this season, with the Tennessee Vols being the lone squad to hit 17.
Stetson Bennett will start at quarterback for Georgia, not JT Daniels, who is healthy and ready. If Bennett struggles and Georgia trails, we could see a quarterback switch at some point.
Bennett threw more than 21 passes in one game all season. One.
The Georgia defense and rushing attack have been enough to keep him safe. That will not be the case versus Saban’s defense.
The Tide’s defense ranks fourth in rushing defense (80.6 yards per game), 42nd in passing defense (213.6 yards per game) and seventh in total yards allowed per game (294.2).
If Alabama slows down Georgia’s rushing attack, they can put Bennett in some situations he is not used to playing in. Alabama will have a quarterback and coaching edge, while Georgia is incomparable on defense.
Georgia’s largest test will come Saturday, and I do not think it will be as lopsided as we think. We only get Alabama as a dog once in a blue moon.
Play it and sprinkle that ML too.
Pick: Alabama +6.5 (1u), Alabama ML (0.5u)
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San Diego State (-6) vs. Utah State: O/U 49.5
The Mountain West Championship. San Diego State versus Utah State.
San Diego State is 4-1 ATS and on the ML versus Utah State, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The Aztecs won by 27 or more in all four wins.
This season, San Diego State is 2-2-1 ATS on the road, but 5-0 on the ML. The Aztecs won every game by six or more points.
Utah State is 5-1 ATS and 6-0 on the ML when away from home this season.
Utah State is one of eight teams to go undefeated on the road this season, along with San Diego State (Air Force, Cincinnati, Georgia, Houston, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh)
The heart of the Aggies comes in the form of its passing attack.
Offensively, Utah State is 15th with 304.8 passing yards per game. Logan Bonner will attempt to become the fourth quarterback to throw for 300-plus yards this season on San Diego State.
The last quarterback to throw for 300-plus was Nevada’s Carson Strong. Strong had 350 passing yards and three touchdowns to no interceptions. San Diego State still won 23-21.
Fresno State was the only team to beat SDSU and their quarterback, Jake Haener, had 300-plus yards but only one touchdown. Fresno State’s running back Jordan Mims recorded 189 rushing yards and two scores on 29 rush attempts. That was the difference.
San Diego State ranks second in the nation with 78.5 rushing yards allowed per game. That was one of the only times they got beat on the ground.
Utah State is 73rd in rushing offense (152.3) and uses a two-running back system. The Aggies rank 86th in rushing defense (163.8 yards per game) and 75th in passing defense (233.5).
If SDSU can limit Bonner and Utah State through the air, then the Aztecs should win by a touchdown-plus.
The Aztecs offense should be able to move the ball on Utah State. Especially after Jordon Brookshire went 11-of-15 for 191 yards with a touchdown versus Boise State last week and Lucas Johnson tossed three touchdowns against UNLV the week prior.
SDSU is 52-2 in the last 54 games when they rush for over 200 yards. The Aztecs are 4-0 this year when they accomplish that feat. Utah State’s defense presents a favorable opportunity for that to happen.
Play San Diego State at -6 for 1 unit.
Pick: San Diego State -6 (1u)
USC at California (-4.5): O/U 57.5
You may have heard, Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has committed to being the next USC head coach, leaving the Sooners.
With that, USC and Cal have one final, and meaningless meeting as both squads are 4-7 on the season. Most people are going to bet Cal based on the thought that USC doesn’t care about this game.
However, USC has been favored 26 straight times against Cal, making this the first time in my life and most people’s that USC is a dog to Cal.
The Trojans have won eight straight on the road at Cal and covered seven out of the past eight spreads.
For Cal, they are abysmal as a home favorite. With Justin Wilcox as the head coach, the Bears have gone 4-10 ATS (28.5%) since 2017. He is 1-7 ATS in the last eight (12.5%).
Wilcox and Cal 13-13 ATS at home overall and 17-9 to the Under (65.4%). Wilcox is 1-2 on the ML versus USC, winning by one, and 1-1 ATS at home against USC.
The Trojans have the better players, and the coaching staff has one last chance to impress Riley before they are extended or fired.
USC Quarterback Jaxson Dart, among others, has the chance to showcase why they should start next year under new management.
On the other hand, the Bears have nothing to play for besides Senior Day. Cal lost two of the last three games to Arizona and UCLA, while USC lost three straight to Arizona State, UCLA and BYU.
I will take USC with the points as the new head coach has USC buzzing with excitement for next season. The Trojans have owned the Bears historically and have the better players.
It should be a close outing if Cal wins to end the season. Play USC down to +3.
Pick: USC +4.5 (1u)
TWITTER SPACES PLAYS:
Alabama’s Bryce Young Over 259.5 Passing Yards (1u)
Georgia’s Stetson Bennett Over 0.5 Interceptions (1u)
Northern Illinois vs Kent State Under 75.5 (0.5u)
Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest Under 71.5 (0.5u)
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