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Boise State (-14) at Wyoming: O/U 43.5
The weather will be an issue in this game with temperatures below 30 degrees and winds in the high teens to low 20’s as the night goes on.
That will be an issue for Wyoming, which will be missing its starting quarterback.
Jayden Clemons is the new starter for the Cowboys. Last week, Clemons went 9-of-13 for 115 passing yards and one touchdown along with 32 yards on the ground and a score. That came in a 14-13 win over a 2-8 Colorado State team.
Boise State will be able to eat Clemons and the Cowboys up behind a Broncos defense that holds opponents to 11.5 points per game in its seven wins. The Broncos rank 4th in total defense with 263.9 yards allowed per game and 11th in scoring defense at 17.3 points per game.
Boise State is on a 5-1 ATS streak since switching up the quarterback position to Taylen Green and are 4-1 ATS in the last five as a favorite.
Wyoming has won four-straight games versus three of the bottom four teams in the conference. The Cowboys did not score more than 28 points scored versus New Mexico, Hawaii, Utah State and Colorado State in that span.
If Boise State wins here, they lock up first place on their side of the MWC.
Pick: Boise State -14 (1.5u)
Florida International at UTEP (-14): O/U 50.0
Let’s continue to fade FIU, especially on the road.
FIU allowed 52 points to North Texas and 52 points to Florida Atlantic in the past two games after winning two-straight versus Charlotte and Louisiana Tech a few weeks ago.
In FIU’s three road losses, the Panthers lost 41-12 to Texas State, 73-0 to Western Kentucky and 52-14 to North Texas. That’s an average game score of 55 to 9.3.
UTEP is sitting at 4-6 on the season, so a win here at home and at UTSA next week would put them at 6-6 and bowl eligible.
The Miners dropped two-straight games and three of the past four, so this is the final get-right spot for UTEP.
This is Senior Day for UTEP and these teams have not met since 2019. FIU has won three-straight in the series and this Senior class will remember that last outing at FIU -- a 32-17 loss where FIU was a -25 home point favorite.
Expect the Miners to come out strong and put up points on the Panthers.
I laid the -14 with the Miners at -110 odds.
Pick: UTEP -14 (1u)
Fresno State (-22) at Nevada: O/U 54.0
Let’s continue fading Nevada.
Nevada is 1-7 ATS and 0-8 on the ML in the past eight games. At home, Nevada is 1-4 ATS season and 0-4 in the past four at the house.
in those previous four home losses, Nevada has been outscored 141-64 and 147-68 over the last five games in general. With Shane Illingworth starting the past three contests, Nevada has scored 7, 28 and 3 points with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Fresno State ranks 30th in passing yards allowed per game (199.1), so I don’t expect Nevada to move the ball much. Last week was only the second time a Nevada player ran for 100-plus yards in a game and the Wolfpack scored 23 points (New Mexico State) and 3 points (Boise State)
Fresno State’s Team Total is set at 37.5 and Nevada would have to score more than two touchdowns in order to cover a spread here, something I am not confident they will do. Nevada was a +21 home dog versus Boise State last week and lost 41-3.
Fresno State is 0-3 ATS in the last three versus Nevada but the Bulldogs were -12.5, +6.5 and -3.5 in that order during that span, so this line and the books are all over Fresno State.
As the road favorite in the series, Fresno State is 3-1 ATS and on the ML against Nevada.
I grabbed Fresno State -22. I would play this to -23.
Pick: Fresno State -22 (1u)
Spencer Petras vs. Minnesota
O/U 0.5 Passing TDs
O/U 140.5 Passing Yards
This Minnesota versus Iowa game has a total of 32.0 with extremely cold and bitter temps.
The high is 18 degrees with a low of 10. It could feel sub-zero with the wind going from 12-20 MPH throughout the contest. With temperatures like that, we should expect to see plenty of rushing attempts from both teams and a limited passing attacks from Spencer Petras and Tanner Morgan.
On the road this season, Petras has 559 passing yards over four games (139.7 ypg) with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Petras is coming off 94 passing yards and no touchdowns or interceptions versus Wisconsin.
Petras is 3-1 to the Over Passing Yards but 3-1 to the Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns away from home.
In Petras’ previous meeting versus the Minnesota Gophers (2020), the Hawkeyes quarterback threw for 111 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a 35-7 loss.
The Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns is +105 odds on DraftKings and -114 on FanDuel.
The Under 140.5 Passing Yards at -115 odds on DraftKings and this is 135.5 on FanDuel.
Pick: Spencer Petras Under 140.5 Passing Yards (1u), Under 0.5 Pass TDs (1u)
Illinois at Michigan (-17): O/U 42.5
Chase Brown is confirmed in, but it’s clear his workload won’t be the same and that is all the difference for this Illinois offense.
Illinois has lost its past two games and the defense is slipping with 23 points allowed to Michigan State and 31 points to Purdue.
Both teams have two of the best ground games and defenses in the country, which match up well, but Illinois isn’t playing for the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan is chasing a perfect season, Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff berth as is Ohio State, who the Wolverines play next.
The Wolverines have scored 30-plus points in eight out of 10 games with 27 at Iowa and 29 against Michigan State. In the Fighting Illini’s three losses, Illinois allowed 23, 23 and 30 points to Indiana, Michigan State and Purdue.
Of course, there is a look ahead spot for Michigan to Ohio State next week, but here is how Michigan has done the week prior historically:
2021: Beat Maryland 59-18
2020: None - Covid
2019: Beat Indiana 39-14
2018: Beat Indiana 31-20
Take Michigan -17 or -17.5.
Pick: Michigan -17 (1u)
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