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Navy (-2.5) vs Army: O/U 32.5
This opened at Army -1 and the total at 34.5.
We are 2-for-2 on Service Academy Unders this season (+4 units) and we go for the third and final winner.
Unders between Service Academy schools (Air Force, Navy, Army) are 28-3-1 (90.3%) since the start of the 2012 season.
Dating back to 2006, the Under in Navy versus Army is 16-0, a perfect 100%, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The total was 36 the past two meetings and now we have 33.0 and 33.5’s out there, which dropped from 34.0.
In those previous 16 meetings in Army versus Navy, the two failed to combined for more than 34 points eight times, including the past two. The average combined score in those 16 meetings is 33.8 points per game.
Both teams have superb ranks on the team entering this game and rest.
Navy has not played since Nov. 19 and Army since Nov. 26, so both teams will be well prepared for each others triple option on a neutral site.
Army is 5-6 on the season and needs this win to be bowl eligible, hence why they were -1.5 favorites. Navy would look to be the spoiler in one of college football’s best rivalries and that’s why the spread moved back to a pick-em.
Navy ranks 7th in rushing yards per game (239.5) and Army is 2nd at 304.4 rushing yards per game. Navy also ranks 3rd in time of possession per game (34.0), while Army is 26th (32.0).
Navy leads the country in fewest penalties per game (3.45) and Army is 22nd (4.73). Army is 27th in red zone defense (.782) and 38th in points allowed per game (23.0), while Navy is 43rd in total defense (355.9 yards per game).
Expect plenty of runs, plenty of 50-yard drives with punts or failed fourth-down conversions, but not many points.
I played the Under 34.0 and 33.5 at -110 and -115 odds and would play this down to 32.5.
Pick: Under 34.0 (Risk 2u)
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