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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
In recent years, football, as a sport, has become more speed/space, less slobberknocker. Get ready to turn back the clock to a blood-spilling, marrow-vaporizing hit parade. This season, Georgia’s defense can make the argument that it’s the best college football has seen in a decade (mostly because it can still make the argument that the Alabama game was a not-needed, quasi-bye one-off). The Georgia Bulldogs are the hammer that sees only nails.
And so is the opponent, the Michigan Wolverines, a program that whipped a Kirk Ferentz team last time out in ways you never see Kirk Ferentz teams whipped – on the mat, in the mud, and to the body. Both of these heavyweights have legitimate knock-out power – who’s gonna hit the mat on Friday?
What: CFP Semifinal (Orange)
Who: Georgia (12-1, 8-1 SEC) vs. Michigan (12-1, 8-1 Big 10)
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
When: Friday, December 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
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Opening line: Georgia -7.5 (O/U 43)
Current line: Georgia -7.5 (O/U 45.5)
Most recent bowl result: Georgia beat Cincinnati 24-21 in last year’s Peach Bowl as 7.5-point favorites. Michigan lost to Alabama 35-16 in the 2020 Citrus Bowl after not participating in a bowl last year.
Michigan at a glance: Can you believe Jim Harbaugh entered this season on the quasi-hot seat? His Wolverines had gone 10-3 three times, 9-4 the year before, never worse than 8-5 -- but flat-lined at 2-4 during last year’s COVID season. Mostly with the same cast of characters -- Harbaugh doubled-down on his vision by waiving goodbye to QB Joe Milton and RB Zach Charbonnet -- the Wolverines roared back with vengeance, going 12-1 with one narrow loss to rival Michigan State but three wins of 15-points-or-more over Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin. Michigan plays vicious defense, has an awesome special teams unit, runs the ball effectively, and takes care of the ball as though it were as precious as a newborn.
Georgia at a glance: Georgia’s best win of the season was a 10-3 rock fight over Clemson. We saw a replay of that game between Clemson and Iowa State in Wednesday night’s bowl game, with the Cyclones playing the role of the Bulldogs. Tennessee was the second-best team Georgia beat. Regardless of whether or not the Alabama result was a question of motivation, this isn’t up for debate: UGA didn’t play a tough schedule, and it’s not unblemished, it is not unbeatable. Georgia QB2 JT Daniels entered COVID protocols after the SEC title game but has been cleared. I think that’s worth mentioning. If Georgia is down at halftime, we may get a Hurts/Tua benching situation, with Kirby Smart going to the more-volatile but better-throwing option.
Key to the matchup: Personnel looks like it should be intact on both sides. Georgia is even, perhaps unexpectedly, going to have new Oregon HC Dan Lanning calling plays on defense one last time. Georgia ranks No. 3 SP+ offensively and has the best defense in the nation by any measure. The offense does great when the running game is stampeding. But when UGA struggled more against Alabama to run the ball, limited QB Stetson Bennett played down. I think Michigan’s hard-hitting, top-10 national defense can slow Georgia’s run game. Michigan’s offense isn’t as good as Georgia’s, but the difference isn’t as pronounced as the numbers suggest.
The Wolverines’ attack improved down the stretch as its front began to get even more push and RB Hassan Haskins started to run with more between-the-tackles conviction following the injury to Blake Corum. Michigan has a huge hidden advantage on special teams, with a top-3 special teams unit overall. This is by design. Michigan can be effective without an explosive offense because it doesn’t get cheated on offense and it spends the game starting in better field-position situations than you do. I believe this is going to be a seesaw affair. The Wolverines keep it within the number.
Best Bet: Michigan +7.5
