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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
My undying love for Air Force football earned me the right to cover this bowl game. Now the trick becomes not letting my passion for the Falcons sway me into making the wrong call in what could be a close game.
Louisville just squeaked into a bowl game with a 6-6 record, needing wins over Syracuse and Duke, who went a combined 8-16 on the year, to reach the postseason. The Cardinals were blown out 52-21 by Kentucky in the final week of the season in a game they were favored by 3, and they now set their sights on a bowl win over Air Force. Louisville is 6-4 in its last 10 bowl games, and is 1-0 under head coach Scott Satterfield in bowls. Satterfield also takes a 4-0 bowl game record into this game, after going 3-0 in bowl games at Appalachian State from 2014 to 2018.
In regards to Air Force, the Falcons dominated for much of the 2021 season, with losses coming to Utah State, San Diego State and Army. The losses to Utah State and San Diego State aren’t the worst blemishes in the world, as both are among the Falcons’ conference rivals and they wound up facing off against one another in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Head coach Troy Calhoun has led Air Force for 15 seasons, and heads into his 11th bowl game with the Falcons, as he looks to push his bowl game record to 6-5 to close out 2021.
With a potentially close game on the horizon, let’s take a look at this matchup to see how it could shake out.
What: First Responder Bowl
Who: Louisville (6-6, 4-4 ACC) vs. Air Force (9-3, 6-2 MWC)
Where: Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
When: Tuesday, December 28th, 3:15 PM EST (ESPN)
Opening line: Louisville +1 (O/U 55.5)
Current line: Louisville -1.5 (O/U 55)
Most recent bowl result: Louisville defeated Mississippi State 38-28 in the 2019 Music City Bowl. Air Force defeated Washington State 31-21 in the 2019 Cheez-It Bowl.
Louisville at a glance: When it comes to Louisville, the Cardinals’ offense goes as quarterback Malik Cunningham goes. Cunningham, who looks like something of a discount version of Lamar Jackson on the field, has been the wheels that propel Louisville’s offense forward.
This season, Cunningham threw for 2,734 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions, and rushed for another 1,076 yards and 19 touchdowns on 143 carries.
Perhaps the biggest knock on Louisville and its 6-6 record is the fact that their wins came over one FCS team plus five FBS opponents that have a combined record of 27-35. Of the FBS teams Louisville beat this season, UCF is the only one to finish 2021 with a winning record (8-5).
Louisville ranks 66th in the nation in offensive success rate (43.0%) but is ninth in explosive play rate at 15.2%, thanks in large to the explosive play of Cunningham.
The Cardinals will be without wide receiver Jordan Watkins, who announced earlier in the month that he would be entering the transfer portal. Watkins led all Louisville receivers with 35 receptions for 536 yards and four touchdowns, but with Cunningham at the helm, Louisville will always have a chance.
Air Force at a glance: If you’re a fan of establishing then run, then you’re going to love Air Force. The Falcons run so often, that it doesn’t take long to realize that being a wide receiver on Air Force is really just a fancy way of saying you’re a running back with great hands.
If you don’t believe me, then you clearly haven’t seen DeAndre Hughes, Air Force’s wide receiver who ranks third on the team with 471 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 55 carries (8.1 yards per carry).
Air Force’s true leader on the ground is fullback Brad Roberts, who led the Mountain West Conference with 1,281 rushing yards while also racking up 13 rushing touchdowns, which ranked as second most in the Mountain West.
Quarterback Haaziq Daniels has thrown for 932 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions on the season, but has 698 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the year, as he and the Falcons keep one drive after another alive thanks to a 46.0% success rate that ranks 35th in the nation.
The Falcons are also fearless when it comes to fourth-down conversions. As a matter of fact, you could argue they don’t run plays to convert on third down, as much as they run plays to setup more optimal fourth downs when needed.
Air Force has gone for it on fourth down 40 times this season, converting on 31 of those attempts for a 77.5% conversion rate, which ranks second in the nation (min. 20 attempts) behind NIU (83.9%).
On defense, the Falcons boast the sixth best success rate against (35.7%), proving to be a force both on the ground and in the air. Air Force allows 1.80 points per drive, which ranks 33rd in the nation, while also holding opponents to the second-fewest plays per game (56.4) thanks in part to not only their defense but their ball control style of offense.
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Key to the matchup: Louisville brings a dynamic quarterback to this matchup in Cunningham, while Air Force brings a defense that has given opposing offenses fits. In addition to Air Force’s defense, their rushing attack and offensive style of play calling are enough to stifle any opponent, particularly those weak against the run - which is far from Louisville’s strength. The keys to this game focus solely on Louisville extending drives and capitalizing on possessions, while getting Air Force off the field quickly. Defensively, Louisville ranks 64th in the nation in success rate against (42.4%), but their run defense is allowing opposing offenses to succeed on 45.7% of their rush attempts (84th). Perhaps even worse is that Louisville is allowing opponent’s to convert plays for first downs on first or second downs 74.0% of the time, which ranks 116th in the nation. The Cardinals’ defenses gives up the chunk plays.
Best Bet: Air Force has given opponents fits all season long. The Falcons team functions as a whole, with both the offense and the defense designed to specifically out-will their opponents on the way to victory. Head coach Troy Calhoun refuses to break from his game plan unless absolutely necessary, which has helped push his team to a 9-3 record on the season. It’s no improbable to think that Air Force can win this game, the books were on the Falcons when this line opened. It will be interesting to see how Calhoun plans to stop Cunningham. The Falcons boast an elite defensive front, and a unit that wraps up the ball carrier (91.5% tackle success rate). The books had this one right when they opened with Air Force as favorites. Barring any unexpected opt-outs or injuries, the Falcons coming in as short underdogs is pretty appealing. I’ll take them against the spread, and lay down a moneyline bet as well.
Pick: Air Force +1.5
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