Army vs. Navy prediction: Updated Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

Army (11-1) has been one of the come-up stories of the 2024 season, defeating every opponent on their schedule with the exception of the CFP Playoff 5th seed Notre Dame. In typical Army form, their run game has steamrolled opponents for a 52.6% rushing success rate (2nd), 3.20 yards before contact (4th) and ranks 3rd in EPA/rush. Though they don’t throw very often, the Black Knights rank 1st in EPA/dropback, passing explosiveness and interception rate. Defensively you can march on Army as they rank 83rd in success rate and 65th in efficiency, but they clamp down in the red zone (51.7% RZ TD rate) and suppress big plays ranking 4th in marginal explosiveness.

Navy (8-3) started the season on a hot streak, defeating a Memphis team that went 10-2 by a score of 56-44 before dropping a 27-point beating on armed services rival Air Force to open 6-0 heading into a big matchup against Notre Dame. Unfortunately, Navy got destroyed by the Irish 51-14 and followed that up by losing a 24-10 decision to a 4-8 Rice team. ACC Championship runner-up Tulane worked the Midshipmen over 35-0, with Navy beating @USF and @ECU on the road to achieve their current 8-3 record. Offensively Navy ranks 8th in points per scoring opportunity (4.98), 4th in marginal explosiveness and 17th in IsoPPP while running the ball at the 2nd highest rate in the country. Defensively the Midshipmen rank 74th in success rate (42%) and 62nd in plays of 20+ yards (6.2%), but they’ve created 20 turnovers thanks to a 4.1% interception rate that ranks 10th in FBS.

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Game Details and How to watch Army vs. Navy

· Date: Saturday, December 14, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Northwest Stadium
· City: Landover, MD
· TV/Streaming: CBS

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Game odds for Army vs. Navy

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: Army (-275), Navy (+210)
• Spread: Army -6.5
• Over/Under: 39 points

The spread is seeing a decent amount of variance, from a low of Army -5.5 up to a high of -7. The 39 game total is a tick down from the 39.5 opening but is still relatively high for this notoriously under-heavy armed forces rivalry.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:

“The Army vs. Navy Under has been a long time meme-play among CFB gambling enthusiasts. However Navy has gone Over the 38.5 game total 8 times, while Army is a cool 9-3 to the Over as well. SP+ has this game pegged at 31-23, for a total of 54 points. I’m taking the value and betting this game to go Over the 38.5 game total.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for Army vs. Navy

• Army: Bryson Daily spent 2023 learning on the job with modest results, earning a 58th percentile offensive grade on the year. However, Daily has come of age in 2024, rushing for 100+ yards against every FBS program while rushing for at least two touchdowns in all but one game so far (FAU). He leads all quarterbacks with 1,474 rush yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground to go with a sterling 91.8 PFF overall grade that ranks 6th in FBS. On the passing side, Daily is completing only 57.7% of his throws but is averaging an FBS-leading 16.5 ADOT, 11.2 YPA and an 8-to-1 ratio.
• Navy: Blake Horvath won the starting gig out of fall camp and has excelled in the role, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, 1,154 passing yards and an 11-to-4 ratio. However that’s only half the story, as the dual-threat signal caller has also rushed for 895 yards, 6.7 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns on the ground as well. Unfortunately Horvath got injured in Week 12 against Tulane and missed Navy’s Week 14 contest against East Carolina, with backup QB Braxton Woodson rushing 17 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. Horvath is expected to be available this week against Army, but check the Navy availability report closer to game time for confirmation.

Army vs. Navy betting trends & recent stats

• Army K Trey Gronotte has made 98% of extra point and field goal attempts this season, 4th-best among FBS kickers.
• Army Skill Players have been targeted 7.9 times per game this season - lowest among FBS programs.
• Army has allowed first downs on 41% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season, worst among Non-Power Four programs.
• Army is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season, the best mark among Group of Five teams. (Avg = .612
• Bryson Daily is averaging 24 carries per game this year, the most among Group of Five quarterbacks.
• Navy RBs have 37 receptions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season-- most among FBS Teams
• Navy is 3-6 (.273) against the spread when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season-- 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .431
• Navy has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 17 of their 831 carries since the 2023 season-- T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams;
• Navy is undefeated (6-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season-- T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
• Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on just 48 of 408 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season-- T-16th-worst in FBS; .

BetMGM College Football Highlights: First Round

Most bet games (tickets)

1. Ohio State-Tennessee
2. Indiana-Notre Dame
3. SMU-Penn State
4. Clemson-Texas

Most bet teams (tickets)

1. Tennessee +7.5
2. Indiana +7.5
3. SMU +8.5
4. Clemson +10.5

Most bet teams (handle)

1. Tennessee +7.5
2. Indiana +7.5
3. SMU +8.5
4. Texas -10.5

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