Boise State (11-1) has been one of the great stories of the 2024 season, winning every game with the lone exception of a hotly contested 37-34 loss to undefeated #1 ranked Oregon. Against the rest of their schedule, Boise dominated every team they played to the tune of a 92%+ win expectancy with the exception of one - UNLV. The Running Rebels lost a close 29-24 decision where the Broncos posted a 39%-win expectancy, sealing the victory with a 14 play, 54-yard drive that lasted 8:07 and ran out the clock on UNLV’s chances. Fueled by RB Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman Trophy-caliber season, BSU ranks 11th in SP+ offense, 3rd in EPA/play and 7th in marginal explosiveness. However, defensively they check in as the 53rd overall unit, with their Achilles heel being a penchant for allowing big plays ranking 95th in yards per successful rush allowed and 101st in 20+ yard completions.
UNLV (10-2) has experienced one of the great program ascensions of this decade, as HC Barry Odom and OC Brennan Marion have coached the Running Rebels to their second consecutive Mountain West Championship game. Outside of the previously mentioned loss to Boise, UNLV’s only other blemish was a thrilling 44-41 OT loss to 9-3 ACC program Syracuse. Victories over @Houston and @Kansas bolster the Running Rebels’ case to be the G5 CFP Playoff representative should they defeat BSU this Friday, essentially making this contest a true play-in game. UNLV’s offense is lethal between the 20’s, ranking 3rd in marginal explosiveness and 4th in IsoPPP. However, when the field is shortened, they struggle, ranking 114th with a 52% red zone touchdown rate. Their run defense is stout ranking 6th in EPA/rush. However, UNLV’s secondary is susceptible to getting beat over the top as they rank 130th in air yards per target (8.6) and 90th in passing explosiveness.
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2024 Mountain West Championship Game Details and How to Watch: UNLV at Boise State
· Date: Friday, December 6th, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Albertsons Stadium
· City: Boise, ID
· TV/Streaming: Fox
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Game odds for UNLV at Boise State
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Boise State (-185), UNLV (+150)
- Spread: Boise State (-4)
- Over/Under: 58.5 points
We got an aggressive opening line of Boise State -5.5/-218, which has been gradually bet down to -4/-176 with a stray -3.5 out there if you shop. The UNLV moneyline dropped at +180 but is down to as low as +145 at time of publishing. Conversely, the game total of 58.5 has held steady with a random 58 available at present moment.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I was in attendance for both of the last two UNLV v. Boise State games. The Broncos boat-raced the Rebels 44-20 in last year’s MWC Championship game at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas and wore UNLV down 29-24 earlier this season. With the game total set at 58.5 points, these programs are 1-1 against the number. I think we see a ramped-up script closer to last year’s 64-point affair, which means I am backing the Over 58.5 points.”
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UNLV and Boise State betting trends & recent stats
- Maddux Madsen has not completed a pass for 20+ yards on any of his 51 total passing attempts on 3rd and long this season, the worst ratio among FBS quarterbacks.
- Matt Lauter averaged a touchdown every 6.3 receptions this season, the 3rd-best Receptions per TD rate among FBS tight ends. South Carolina TE Josh Simon tops the list at 5.7 receptions per touchdown.
- Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season, 3rd-best in FBS. Ole Miss ranks first with a 13.2% sack rate.
- UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 261 attempts this season, 23rd-best among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts this season, 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
- UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on 82 of 376 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season, 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams.
- UNLV QBs have rushed for 1,050 yards this season, 5th-most among FBS Teams. Unsurprisingly, Army leads the nation in QB rushing yards with 1,512.
Quarterback matchup for UNLV at Boise State
- Boise State: When 2023 starting QB Taylen Green transferred to Arkansas in the offseason, Boise State sprang into action to bring in USC transfer and former Top 10 recruit Malachi Nelson to compete for the job with Maddux Madsen, who had sustained a season-ending injury in 2023. After a hard-fought fall camp battle Madsen outlasted Nelson and has started every game for the Broncos. He has completed 62% of his passes for 2,552 yards and a 21-to3 ratio to go with 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Madsen has increased his PFF overall grade from 66.4 to a solid 77.3, but he’s been pretty fortunate to have only 3 of his 12 turnover worthy plays turn into interceptions.
- UNLV: The Running Rebels transferred in two upperclassmen FCS signal callers in Holy Cross’ Matthew Sluka and Campbell’s Hajj-Malik Williams. While Sluka started the first three games, a NIL disagreement caused him to leave the team which handed over the starting reins to Williams who has completed 63.5% of his passes for 8.3 YPA and a 17-to-4 ratio. Hajj-Malik’s 10.8 ADOT is the 12th highest mark among 106 FBS qualifiers, and his 83.7 PFF overall grade ranks 25th in FBS. A talented runner, Williams has accrued 50+ rushing yards in 8-of-10 games and has proved to be a dangerous dual-threat weapon.
BetMGM College Football Highlights: Conference Championship Week
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Penn State-Oregon
2. Georgia-Texas
3. Iowa State-Arizona State
Most bet teams (tickets)
1. Oregon -3.5
2. Texas -2.5
3. Arizona State -2.5
Most bet teams (handle)
1. Oregon -3.5
2. Texas -2.5
3. Arizona State -2.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
1. Georgia-Texas 49.5
2. Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State 57.5
3. Clemson-SMU 56.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
1. Tulane-Army 46.5
2. Marshall-Lafayette 56.5
3. Ohio-Miami OH 44.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
1. Georgia +120
2. Iowa State +110
3. Clemson +115
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