Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
In this installment, we look at the Purdue Boilermakers and their new HC Ryan Walters.
Purdue
HC - Ryan Walters (1st year)
OC - Graham Harrell
DC - Kevin Kane
2022 Record: 8-6
Second Order Win Total: 6.9 (-1.1)
Points/Yards Per Game: 26.6 points
Points/Yards Allowed: 400 yards (279 Pass | 121 Rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 48th
2023 SP+ Offense: 45th
2023 SP+ Defense: 52nd
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 103rd
Offensive Returning Production: 50% (104th)
Defensive Returning Production: 56% (88th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8542 (54th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8604 (39th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 5th
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
Entering his fifth season at the helm of Purdue in 2021, HC Jeff Brohm hadn’t had a winning year since his maiden campaign when he squeaked out a 7-6 record in 2017. HC Brohm promptly delivered an inspiring 9-4 campaign, a feat that the Boilermakers hadn’t achieved in 18 years. QB Aidan O’Connell worked his way up from being a walk-on to be named Second Team All-Big Ten by completing 72% of his passes and earning a superb 90.6 PFF offensive grade, 9th best among returning signal callers. Projected starting RB Zander Horvath was injured early on which sapped Purdue’s ability to run the ball, with their 84 rushing yards per game ranking fourth-lowest in the country. It hurt their ability to convert in short yardage situations, ranking 120th on 3rd-and-short conversion rate and 122nd with a 47% red zone touchdown rate. Despite the disappointing rushing numbers their offensive line was able to pass protect very well, ranking 30th with a 26% pressure rate allowed and 29th with a 5% sack rate.
Last year, Three offensive linemen with 800+ snaps under their belts in 2021 returned to form a rock solid OL that committed just 2.5 penalties per game (11th in FBS), which was a huge advantage for the Boilermakers’ during their march to the B10 Championship Game. Their run game improved drastically as a result of the offensive line’s continuity, rushing for 121 yards per game at a 3.6 YPC clip which is almost 40 YPG more than their 83 YPG average over the last three years in former HC Brohm’s pass-oriented offense that ranked top-10 in pass attempts per game in each of his five seasons at Purdue. When it was time to throw, the OL posted a pristine 3.5% passing downs sack rate (12th in FBS), 25.5% pressure rate (39th) and a 4.4% overall sack rate.
Their blockade-worthy pass protection allowed pro-style QB Aidan O’Connell to sit back in the pocket and distribute, breaking the pocket on just 3% of his dropbacks, which accounted for the 14th fewest QB scrambles in FBS. Purdue ranked 113th nationally with 7.4 air yards per attempt, which is compatible with 12.2% of their completions going for 20+ yards (120th). What the Boilermakers lacked in explosiveness (114th) they made up for with volume, as their 583 pass attempts ranked 4th in FBS with 43% of throws coming against man coverage, 15th most in FBS, as defenses tried to disrupt the timing of O’Connell’s precision passing attack. Accordingly, 34.5% of O’Connell’s passes were contested targets, 9th most in the country, but he was still able to complete 37.3% of those passes, a mark that ranked 31st nationally. Half of O’Connell’s targets went to a pair of 2023 NFL Draft selections, Charlie Jones and Payne Durham, with “Chuck Sizzle” leading the way by averaging a splendid 2.7 yard per route with 110 receptions, 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns in a seasonal performance that Purdue all-time leading WR John Standeford would be proud of.
Defensively the Boilermakers posted one of their best performances of the last decade in 2021, allowing just 22 points and 367 yards per game while ranking 25th in overall defense according to SP+. Their line did a phenomenal job of harassing opposing signal callers with a 34% pressure rate (26th), but at the same time they allowed too many big plays, both on the ground (83rd in rush explosiveness) and through the air (97th). Last year, they were faced with the unenviable task of replacing one of the greatest defensive players in school history, as decorated First-Team All-B10 DE George Karlaftis was drafted in the first round by Kansas City last April.
Six of the top eight players from the line rotation returned along with three secondary starters from a group that posted a solid 18-to-13 TD/INT ratio in 2021. Their points allowed average jumped from 22.4 PPG in 2021 to 27.4 last year, as the Purdue defense missed Karlaftis’ disruptive presence off the edge, with Purdue’s pressure rate dropping from 34% in 2021, to 26% (92nd). Their “break but don’t bend” defense ranked 121st in marginal explosiveness while allowing completions of 20+ yards 20.2% of the time (108th) and 4.56 points per scoring opportunity (118th).
Despite a penchant for allowing chunk plays, the Boilermakers’ secondary’s 3.6% interception rate ranked 17th nationally to go with a 57% completion rate allowed (25th) and a sterling 22.5% passing down success rate (6th). Where they really excelled as a unit was on third-down, allowing a 40% 3rd-and-medium success rate (19th) and a 15% 3rd-and-long success rate that was the 6th-best mark nationally. While they weren’t nearly as potent as Purdue’s 2021 D, their 35.4% 3-and-out rate was 27th nationally and their stingy 3rd down conversion rate allowed the Purdue D to fend off opponents well enough to win the Big Ten West and face Michigan in the B10 Championship Game despite uninspiring overall numbers.
Looking ahead to 2023
New OC Graham Harrell will try to overcome the losses of NFL 4th Round draft choices QB Aidan O’Connell, WR Charlie Jones and 5th round TE Payne Durham. OC Harrell is a former Texas Tech QB legend who is a chip of the old Mike Leach (RIP) air-raid block. He was OC at USC in 2020-2021, where in Year 1 he oversaw a decrease from 454 total yards to 417, before shepherding a drop from 33.3 PPG-to-28.7 PPG in 2021, at which point he was fired to make way for the Lincoln Riley era that immediately saw the USC offense average 41.4 PPG, which is almost two touchdowns more per game than the Harrell version. He then lifted West Virginia’s 32nd ranked SP+ offense from 25.2 PPG to 30.6 last year, but averaged just 227 passing yards per contest (71st) despite uncorking 35.4 passes per game (34th). West Virginia’s terrible defense that allowed 33 PPG didn’t help WVU achieve bowl eligibility, but Harrell should have a much more stable D behind him at Purdue with HC Walters calling plays for the defense.
Purdue brings in Texas transfer QB Hudson Card, who started three games in place of the injured Quinn Ewers last year, producing a 69% completion rate with a 6-to-1 ratio. Card excelled in the short-to-intermediate range last year, completing 75% of his throws from 0-19 yards. However his 36% completion rate and 0-to-2 Big Time Throw-to-Turnover Worthy Play ratio on downfield throws of 20+ yards is concerning. WR TJ Sheffield (5’11/190) is the leading returnee, running 80% of his routes from the outside while averaging 6.3 yards per target on a 17.6% target share and 61.8 PFF receiving grade. WR Mershawn Rice (6’2/205) averaged 11 air-yards per target and led the Boilermakers with a 37% deep route rate, but Sheffield is the clear leader in the race for the WR1 spot in OC Harrell’s air-raid passing attack.
Three starting OL return, along with left guard DJ Johnson who was injured early on last year. OC Guard Jalen Grant, who started 30 games at Bowling Green with a 66.4 PFF blocking grade, 3 sacks and 17 pressures allowed in 861 snaps, and Third-Team All-Mountain West UNLV LG Preston Nichols. The seasoned offensive line returns 92 total line starts and will once again clear the way for RB Devin Mockobee, who ran for 968 yards on 5.0 YPC while reeling in 32-of-45 targets for 274 receiving yards in his true freshman season, earning All-Big Ten honorable mention status despite being a preferred walk-on.
New HC and defensive guru Ryan Walters will hope to spur a turnaround similar to the reclamation project he undertook at Illinois, where he turned around a D that allowed 35 PPG in 2020 to holding opponents to a pristine 12.8 PPG and 4.4 yards per play last year. His Illini defense ranked #1 overall last year in both points per scoring opportunity (Purdue 118th) and Red Zone TD rate (Purdue 104th), two key data points that the Boilermakers need major improvement in. As is often the case with a new staff coming in, the defense is turning over a significant portion of their key contributors, with 10 of their 14 leading tacklers no longer on the roster.
Their top two most productive defensive linemen, Jack Sullivan (35 pressures, 11.7% pressure rate, 5.5 sacks: USC) and Branson Deen (34 pressures, 11.9% pressure rate, 78.2 PFF rush grade: Miami) transferred out, leaving Kydran Jenkins (28 pressures, 4 sacks, 75.4 PFF tackle grade) as the lone returning DL starter from last year. HC Walters hit the portal hard as a result of the defections, bringing in Auburn three-tech Jeffrey M’Ba (6’6/307) who posted a 9.1% pressure rate in 82 snaps last year, along with DT Isaiah Nichols (6’3/315) who has five years of experience at Arkansas, logging 422 snaps last year while starting every game for the Razorbacks. Throw in Vanderbilt DT Malik Langham, who earned 650 reps with 12 stops over the last two seasons, and you’ve got a defensive line that’s been overhauled with a trio of SEC transfers who will contribute immediately.
Program leader ILB Jalen Brown was a 7th round NFL draft pick this year, so former defensive ends Nic Caraway (6’4/260 - 7.6% pressure rate, 71.9 PFF tackle grade) and Khordae Snydor (6’4/265 - 9.6% pressure rate, 2.5% sack rate = best among returnees) both move off ball, with HC Walters heaping praise on Caraway after the spring. Cam Allen (49 tackles, 6 PBU, 3 INT HM All-B10) moves from safety to the “Star” position, playing a hybrid LB/S role. The secondary loses three starters, including Day 3 NFL Draft choice Corey Trice, but the team’s leading tackler SS Sanoussi Kane (72 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 3 PBU HM All-B10) is back. In order to remold the defensive backfield, HC Walters brought in three-year Stanford CB Salim Turner-Muhammad (84% completion rate, 158.3 NFL pass rating when thrown to, 48.9 PFF cover grade in 214 snaps), four-year Penn State vet CB Marquis Wilson (65.2 PFF cover grade, 7 stops, 18.3 YPR on 13-of-23 targets, 3 PBU, 280 snaps) and Ole Miss sophomore CB Markevious Brown (168 snaps LY, 78.9 tackle grade, 87.9 NFL pass rating allowed).
Analyzing Purdue’s Win Total
Relevant Purdue data points
- 7-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards L2Y
- 11-3 when allowing less than 3 sacks
- 12-2 (.857 Win %) when intercepting at least one pass (FBS average = .621)
Purdue gets blasted with the 5th toughest schedule in the country this year after facing the 39th overall schedule in 2022. They open at home against Fresno State before traveling to Blacksburg, VA to take on Virginia Tech. A brutal three game homestand looms with Syracuse, Wisconsin and Illinois where they’re a toss up in two of those games and a likely 10+ point underdog to Wisconsin. They will need to be 3-2 coming out of that stretch to have a prayer at bowl eligibility, as they take a road trip to Kinnick Stadium where they’re a heavy dog to Iowa before welcoming The Ohio State University to West Lafayette for another likely loss heading into the Week 8 Bye. Out of the break they hit the road to Matt Rhule’s @Nebraska followed by @Michigan in The Big House. They wrap up the season with Minnesota at home, @Northwestern in the midst of turmoil, and Indiana back home to end the year.
The odds have Purdue juiced heavily to the Under 5.5 at (-145). Which is understandable considering Purdue had a 6.9 second order win total last year and has been winning tight at an unsustainable rate, going 10-3 in one score games over the last two seasons (FBS Avg = .494 win Pct). I cannot envision Purdue becoming bowl eligible with this schedule, a first year HC and 11 returning starters, so i’m going Under 5.5 Wins
