Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
Up next, P.J. Fleck’s Minnesota Golden Gophers:
Minnesota
2023
HC - PJ Fleck (7th year)
OC - Co-OC Matt Simon (4th year)
OC - Co-OC Greg Harbaugh (1st Year) (2022 TE coach)
DC - Joe Rossi (5th year)
2022 Record: 9-4
Second Order Win Total: 9.5 (+0.5)
2022 Over/Under: 7.5
Points/Yards Per Game: 28.2 Points | 390 yards (182 Pass | 208 Rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 13.8 Points | 295 yards (186 Pass | 109 Rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 31st
2023 SP+ Offense: 63rd
2023 SP+ Defense: 9th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 24th
Offensive Returning Production: 58% (83rd)
Defensive Returning Production: 57% (84th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8567 (49th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8478 (60th)
Pace of Play: Plays Per Game: 66.9 Plays Per Game (82nd) | 31.2 Seconds Per Play (129th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 7th
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
In 2019 OC Kirk Ciarrocca led the Gophers’ offense to 34 points and 432 yards per game as they went 11-2, starting 9-0 before falling to Iowa and Wisconsin. OC Ciarrocca returned last year after a two-year sabbatical to transform a 2021 unit whose productivity plummeted to just 25.5 points and 360 yards per game. Minnesota had played at the slowest pace in the country in 2021 due to their run-heavy game script that had the Gophers rushing 46 times per game, sixth most in the nation.
The Ciarrocca revival tour went pretty well last year, as the Gophs boosted their scoring output from 25.5 PPG to 28.2 while tacking on an extra 30 yards per contest and posting the highest yards per carry (4.6) average of the Fleck-era and cutting their sacks allowed from 22-to-15. They were unstoppable in short-yardage situations with a 90.2% Power Success Rate (1st in FBS) and converted 47% of their third down opportunities, good for 14th best in FBS. Minnesota is not subtle about their intentions either, posting a 73% standard downs run rate, which is the 5th most nationally and a full 15% higher than the national average of 58%. Their 25 Red Zone rushing touchdowns led the nation last year, what gives me hope for a more open explosive approach in 2023 is the transition from consummate game-manager Tanner Morgan (67% comp rate, 8.9 air yard/pass, 11% of throws 20+ yards in 160 attempts) to Athan Kaliakmanis who threw downfield 18% of the time (national average = 14.5%) while rushing for 140 yards with a very respectable 71.9 PFF run grade.
DC Joe Rossi did a magnificent job with the defense in 2021, allowing just 17.3 points (6th in FBS) and 279 yards (3rd!) while ranking 10th in points per drive (1.5), 12th in yards per play (4.9) and 16th in EPA/play. The catalyst for 2021’s explosion was a relentless defensive line that had two 2022 NFL draft choices in Boye Mafe, who tested in the 99th percentile on his RAS score and is a legitimate freak of nature, and Esezi Otomewo. They lost three starters and five backups from their defensive line and imported multiple transfers to address the vacancies from a very inexperienced unit that posted a 7.2% havoc rate (33rd) in 2021. Their secondary pitched a sterling 56% completion rate (9th) with a 15-to-8 ratio.
DC Rossi returned again last year and somehow improved by pitching the 5th overall defense in the country according to SP+, allowing just 13.8 points per game and 1.35 points per drive (7th in FBS). They ranked top-10 nationally in several key indicators such as success rate (36%), 3-and-out rate (40.4%) explosive play rate (9.6%), but only generated 19 sacks with a 14% Havoc Rate (94th). Their vicious secondary accounted for an 8.2% Havoc rate (25th) and was led by 2023 NFL draft picks Terrell Smith and Jordan Howden. The Gophers’ secondary allowed completions on just 36% of red zone pass attempts, the second-lowest rate in the country.
Looking ahead to 2023
Kaliakmanis brings a legitimate dual-threat capability to the offense that Morgan simply did not possess, and with Athan being a highly touted recruit with more downfield juice in his arm, we could see Minnesota’s offense take another modest step this year. According to ESPN’s Billy Connelly, Minnesota completed just 81.5% of their wide open throws, the 114th rate nationally. If Kaliakmanis can settle into the offense after throwing 110 passes last year as Tanner Morgan’s understudy, his penchant for taking shots could very well boost Minnesota’s 124th ranking in IsoPPP and 106th overall ranking in marginal explosiveness.
Tight End Brevyn Spann-Ford is one of the most talented pass catchers at his position in the country, averaging a superb 2.5 yards per route with 23% of his 60 targets coming 20+ yards downfield. He’s also a gigantic human who checks in at 6’7/270, presenting a physical mismatch against whoever he’s lining up against. Leading WR Daniel Jackson returns (37-of-60 for 557 yds, 2.4 yards/route, 26% target share) alongside Western Michigan transfer WR Corey Crooms (57-of-115, 818 yards, 75.1 PFF Rec grade, 77% Slot) and Charlotte transfer Elijah Spencer (57-of-90, 928 yards, 81.0 PFF Rec Grade, 16 broken tackles, 75% Wide). Spencer is a legitimate big-play threat with 36.4% of his receptions going for 20+ yards last year, the second-highest big play rate in the nation (Matt Landers #1 at 38.3%). Throw in a returning Chris Autman-Bell (injured after 3 games LY) and this is as good a receiver corps as Minnesota has had since Rashod Batemen was a R1 NFL draft choice. The Gophers only targeted their wideouts 369 times since 2021, the lowest among all Power Five programs. With the boost in talent and better injury luck, we could see an uptick in wide receiver usage from Co-OC’s Simon and Harbaugh
Last year Minnesota returned just ONE starting OL, the great C John Michael-Schmitz who earned All-American honors and was selected in R2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite the relative inexperience, all five starters played every single game last season which served as a catalyst to the run game improvements outlined above. The unit finished top-25 nationally in Blown Run Block Rate (.7%) and Total Blown Block rate (1.1%), while allowing 4.7% sacks per dropback (44th) and averaging just 2.3 penalties per game (5th). The Gophers’ rush attack will have their work cut out for them, as 3 OL starters depart along with the Power Five’s leading rusher, and two-time All-American, Mo Ibrahim. RG Quinn Carroll (originally at Notre Dame) and LT Aireontae Ersery are Honorable Mention All-B10 performers while G/C Nathan Boe logged 215 as a swing-IOL and slides to center full time. Fleck opted against going the transfer route this year, so 6'7 behemoths LG Martes Lewis (74 snaps 2022) and RT JJ Guedet will inherit starting roles. Another of PJ Fleck’s Western Michigan transfers in RB Sean Tyler is slated to head the backfield, but talented rFr Zach Evans (top-50 HS RB) and true frosh Darius Taylor (top-25 HS RB) are in line to fight for carries as well.
This year 6 starters return on D, including 2nd Team All-B10 safety Tyler Nubin and Justin Walley who assumes the CB1 role. How the secondary fills the void left by Howden and Smith is going to define how good this defense is going to be. DE Jalen Logan-Redding started 12 games as a rFr and sophomore Jah Joyner is a promising Edge who posted a 14.6% pressure rate last year. They’re going to be vital components for a Minnesota DL that posted a disappointing 4.5% Havoc rate (94th) in 2022 with their lowest sack total of the Fleck era. LBs Danny Striggow (led with 3.5 sacks LY), Cody Lindenberg (HM B10) and yet another Western Michigan transfer Ryan Selig form a solid linebacker group that had a bit of a learning curve last year, ranking 124th in havoc plays amongst FBS linebackers. The D is helped by big-legged K Dragan Kesich, whose 4.5 touchbacks per game was the 2nd-best rate in FBS.
While there’s no denying the efficacy of last year’s defense, their front-seven were more steady than spectacular and leaned on a top-flight secondary to be game-changers. I think we see UM create more pressure up front and boost their TFL’s, but they’re going to have to improve substantially to overcome a brutal schedule that includes North Carolina, Michigan and Ohio State out of division. Throw in a Phil Longo-led Wisconsin on the slate and I think it’s going to be a major task for the Minnesota D to keep opponents under the 20 PPG barrier again this year.
Analyzing Minnesota’s Win Total
Last year Minnesota won all of their 8 regular season games in decisive fashion, with each victory earning a post game win expectancy of 94% or better. Their two losses against Illinois and Penn State weren’t particularly close, but they had a shot to beat Iowa (47% win expectancy) in a frigid game with a 31.5 Over/Under, which is about as low a point total as humanly possible…and it went Under 13-10! Same for their game Purdue (44% win expectancy) when Mo Ibrahim was a late, unannounced scratch. The out-of-nowhere DNP is a yearly CFB tradition that is the bane of every CFF/DFS player’s existence.
In 2023, Minny opens on Thursday Night, August 31st vs. Nebraska in Game 1 of the Matt Rhule era where Minnesota is a 7.5-point favorite. Eastern Michigan then comes to Minneapolis before a tough road test @North Carolina against Heisman candidate Drake Maye. Then a 3-game stretch against @Northwestern, Louisiana and Michigan before the Week 7 Bye. They’ll be favorites in 4 of the 6 first-half games, and would do well to be 4-2 before a gauntlet back-half against @Iowa (+3 estimate), Michigan State (-9.5), Illinois (-3.5). They close with @Purdue, @ Ohio State and Wisconsin for the Axe.
This is a tightrope walk at 7.5, as I think Minnesota finishes with either 7 or 8 wins. But my gut tells me their 7th ranked schedule and Ohio State/Michigan combo from the East is too much for Minnesota to overcome, i’m taking the Under 7.5 wins.
