2023 Big Ten Betting Preview Series: Iowa Hawkeyes
Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
In this installment, we breakdown the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa
2023 Season Preview
HC - Kirk Ferentz (25th year)
OC - Brian Ferentz (7th year)
DC - Phil Parker (12th year)
2022 Record: 8-5
Second-Order Wins: 7.6 (-0.4)
2022 Over/Under: 7.5 (Over)
Points/Yards Per Game: 17.7 points | 252 yards (157 Pass | 95 Rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 13.3 points | 271 yards (169 Pass | 101 Rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 29th
2023 SP+ Offense: 81st
2023 SP+ Defense: 1st
Offensive Returning Production: 76% (25th)
Defensive Returning Production: 59.5% (74th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8566 (51st)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8517 (55th)
Pace of Play: 60.3 Plays Per Game (126th) | 28:2 Seconds Per Play (101st)
2023 Schedule Strength: 69th
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
It’s a small miracle that Iowa was able to win 10 games in 2021 with how morose their offense truly was. There isn’t one, single advanced metric pertaining to the Hawkeyes’ offense that doesn’t bleed red ink all over the page. At least they were able to protect the ball and not hurt themselves, as a big component of the Hawkeyes’ success centered around their +12 turnover margin. In 2022 they had the benefit of returning seven starters on each side of the ball, including four offensive linemen who played at least 500 snaps the previous season. Considering the experienced line it was entirely plausible, if not likely, that Iowa would best their disappointing numbers from 2021, when they averaged 124 yards per game and 3.4 YPC, to go with a troubling 36% pressure rate (114th) in Pass Pro. With a team that brought back their top-3 QBs, top-3 receivers and top-4 offensive linemen, an increase in productivity was almost universally expected.
Let’s just say that did NOT happen, as Iowa’s offense plummeted to previously unheard of depths of futility, gaining a paltry 252 yards per game while averaging just 95 yards on the ground and scoring an unacceptable 17.7 points per game under 6th year OC Brian Ferentz. Their young, leaky OL allowed a 37% pressure rate (127th), 2% blown block rate (120th) and 38 sacks. The chorus of Hawkeyes faithful on the message boards echoing the need for more creativity in the offensive play calling has been deafening and wholly warranted, as they finished bottom-ten nationally in Success Rate (36%), Explosive Play Rate (8.3%) and points per scoring opportunity (2.92). In response, the Iowa Athletic Department baked in a sizable bonus for OC Ferentz if he clears the 25 PPG barrier in 2023. There is precedent for such an occurrence, as Iowa posted 31.8 PPG in 2020, 25.8 PPG in 2019, 31.2 PPG in 2018 and 28.2 PPG in 2017.
Looking ahead to 2023
In Ferentz’s favor is a concerted effort to bring in transfers who can help boost the potency of the offense right away. They raided the Michigan depth chart bringing in steady-hand Cade McNamara who connected on 64% of his passes with a solid 77.4 PFF passing grade in 2021. Perhaps most impressive is McNamara’s ability to effectively distribute the ball without having to use play-action as a crutch, as his 77% adjusted completion rate, 12-to-4 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate and 80.0 PFF offensive grade with no play action is a drastic upgrade from 2022 starter Spencer Petras. The now departed Petras earned a 59.1 PFF offensive grade with a 5-to-8 “BTT-to-TWP ratio” and a brutal 65.9 NFL Passer Rating without play action. Given Ferentz’s Play-action light tendencies, 77% of Iowa’s plays did not utilize play-action last year, you could argue McNamara’s skillset is a perfect complement to what he wants to do offensively.
The same is true for talented fellow Michigan refugee TE Erick All who slides right in next to TE Luke Lachey to form another lethal TE combo that Iowa is renowned for. You can also throw in Ohio State transfer WR Kaleb Brown, who was originally rated as the 78th overall player in the nation and 13th wide receiver who carried a four-star 247Sports rating and 95 prospect grade in addition to running a 10.84s 100-yard dash in high school. The offensive line returns every starter from last year, totaling 92 career starts, in addition to bringing in two-time All-MAC C/G Rusty Feith and Saginaw Valley RT Daijon Parker, giving the reinforced unit a staggering 144 career starts of collegiate experience.
On defense last year, the Hawkeye brought back seven starters, including seven-of-the-top-eight from a 2021 defensive line that generated pressure 31% of the time (33rd in FBS). Backup DLs Joe Evans and Lukas Van Ness each recorded seven sacks in 2021 and Van Ness went on to be a R1 NFL selection in 2023. Their linebackers were a top-10 overall unit behind fellow R1 NFL draft pick, and All-American, MLB Jack Campbell as all three starters returned. 2021 Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year, Riley Moss, led the secondary alongside SS Kaevon Merriweather. With so much proven talent back, Iowa improved from allowing 19.2 PPG/329 yards per game in 2021, to 13.3 PPG and 271 yards per game allowed with a superb 2.8 YPC allowed average. The Hawkeyes were so dominant that they ranked as the #1 defense in the country according to the advanced data, allowing a 34% success rate (4th), 7.2% explosive play rate (1st), 91% tackle success rate (1st) and a 10.5% defensive line Havoc Rate (4th in FBS - 5.9% = average DL Havoc Rate).
Thanks to HC Kirk Ferentz’s constantly rotating, 3-line hockey-style substitution pattern for the defensive front, Iowa returns seven players who logged at least 17 snaps per game last year, softening the blow of losing Luka Van Ness. IDL Joe Evans, IDL Logan Lee and DE Noah Shannon all return with Big Ten honors while they brought in “Young Buck” Virginia LB Nick Jackson, who boasts 354 career tackles and 33 starts, to shore up a depleted linebacker corps that is the biggest question mark on the defense. The secondary should be solid once again, with 1st Team All-Big Ten CB1 Cooper DeJean back along with starting FS Quinn Schulte. The crown jewel of their 2022 recruiting class, FS Xavier Nwankpa (.9773 composite player rating = 53rd overall 2022 recruit), will step into Merriweather’s SS slot and play high leverage minutes. They have the good fortune of getting back CB Jermari Harris from injury, who logged 462 snaps while allowing a solid 51% completion rate and earning a 78.8 PFF cover grade in 2021. If the linebackers can acclimate fast enough to avoid a steep drop off from the play of an all-time program legend like Jack Campbell, Iowa’s defense is going to be another exceptional unit.
Analyzing Iowa’s Win Total
Iowa get a nice, tidy pair of wins from their non-conference slate when they host Utah State and Western Michigan, with their third non-con game occurring in Aames, Iowa against cross-state rival @Iowa State that I feel confident Iowa will be favored in and avenge their 2022 10-7 rock fight loss last year. While I love Penn State this year, Iowa is the first big test for sophomore wunderkind QB Drew Allar so there’s a non-zero chance Iowa overwhelms the fledgling signal caller on their trip to Happy Valley in Week 4. They’ve got 2 walkover games at home against a moribund Michigan State squad and a changing-over Purdue team that ranks 101st in returning production and has a completely new coaching staff. Iowa will be on their heels at Camp Randall against Luke Fickell’s Badgers, but fortunately get Minnesota and first-year starter Athan Kaliakmanis at home before the Bye. Northwestern is a Wrigley Field game that will have plenty of Iowa fans in attendance for the novelty, meaning Iowa only has 4 true road games. Once they get back from Chicago, Iowa hosts Rutgers and retooling Illinois before a Black Friday road tilt at Nebraska with new HC Matt Rhule to wrap up the regular season.
I think Iowa is favored by a Field Goal against every team except for @Penn State and @Wisconsin, and this 7.5 Wins O/U is an overly pessimistic line that bakes in a lot of variance with a division that has 3 new HCs and Illinois losing their Ace DC to Purdue. Currently the best odds you’re going to find at 7.5 wins is at Bet MGM where it’s sitting at (-165). Draft Kings has it at -170 if you’re in their footprint. If you want to roll the dice at 8.5 Wins, FanDuel has it at +126 to the Over. I’m laying the heavy juice (-165) and confidently taking Iowa Over 7.5 Wins.
