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The brackets are out, the game lines are posted. March is in full swing, which means one thing: it’s time to talk underdogs.
Whether you’re looking to fill out an office pool entry, earn bragging rights at the dinner table or pocket a few bucks from a moneyline ticket, this is the time of year when everyone pays attention to the teams that shouldn’t - but do. Underdogs reign supreme in the NCAA Tournament, especially over the first few chaotic days.
So to help you sift through the (many) options on the board, we have created the Underdog Rankings powered by PointsBet. Our top college basketball analysts, Thomas Casale (@TheTomCasale) and Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports), have built a composite ranking of every underdog that will hit the court across the first two weeks of March Madness. They’ll break things down by day for the first weekend, then will add rankings for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games to come next week.
These rankings are geared toward ATS figures, with the top teams viewed as most likely to cover the spread. (Inevitably, a couple will also pull the outright upset to keep those bracket hopes alive.) Those teams near the bottom of the rankings may have short stays in the tournament - and you could be well-served to look to the other side of the spread.
In fact, sometimes the oddsmakers differ from those setting the seeds. This year’s opening round featured three different matchups where the lower-seeded team was actually the betting favorite, with those favorites winning two of three games outright. There’s another instance in Sunday’s Round of 32 action, with No. 4 seed Illinois an underdog against 5-seed Houston.
Click here to see how Thomas and Vaughn broke down the underdog chances on the first day of Round of 32 action, where they gave top billing to North Carolina before they took out the defending champs. Below is how they rank the underdogs for the second-round games on Sunday March 20, headlined by the Texas Longhorns looking to knock out one of the Big Ten’s most potent teams:
1. (6) Texas (+3.5) vs. (3) Purdue
VD: We are ready to fade Purdue at all costs. The Boilermakers are now 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, while the Longhorns are 2-6 ATS as an underdog. Neither team is that great from an ATS perspective, but what gives Texas an edge for covering is Purdue’s pick-and-roll defense. The Longhorns have more than a few capable guards that will pick apart the Boilermakers’ defense.
2. (7) Michigan State (+6.5) vs. (2) Duke
TC: It’s the final matchup between Tom Izzo and Coach K. Offensive rebounding will play a big role in this game, as these are two of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. If the Spartans can win the battle of the boards, they can stay within the number.
3. (11) Iowa State (+4.5) vs. (3) Wisconsin
VD: Wisconsin is No. 1 in the country when it comes to offensive turnover percentage, and Iowa State is fifth in defensive turnover percentage. That’s what this matchup will come down to. The Cyclones have struggled from three (27.5%) and the free-throw line (66.6%) over the past three games, but so have the Badgers (28.1% and 70.7%). Iowa State’s defense makes them a live underdog, not to mention Wisconsin is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
4. (9) TCU (+9.5) vs. (1) Arizona
TC: The Big 12 is having a strong tournament, and TCU is one of the few teams with the front line to match Arizona. The Horned Frogs are the top offensive rebounding team in college basketball. If TCU can slow the pace and limit Arizona’s possessions, the Horned Frogs have a shot to cover the big number. If Arizona speeds up the game and gets out to an early lead, TCU is in trouble.
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5. (4) Illinois (+4.5) vs. (5) Houston
TC: The Illini survived against Chattanooga in a game they trailed the entire way until the final 40 seconds. That’s the good news. The bad news is now Illinois gets to face a Houston squad that made light work of UAB in the opening round. Turnovers could be an issue here. Illinois is sloppy with the basketball, and Houston forces a lot of mistakes that lead to points. Tough matchup for the Illini.
6. (11) Notre Dame (+7.5) vs. (3) Texas Tech
VD: The Fighting Irish throttled the Crimson Tide after surviving Rutgers in 2OT, making them a potential Cinderella option. However, the Red Raiders’ defense will be the toughest unit that the Irish have faced all season. Notre Dame lost to St. Mary’s (62-59) and that was the highest-rated defense the Irish faced this season. Texas Tech ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, 10th in defensive turnover percentage and 13th in two-point defense.
7. (10) Miami (+7.5) vs. (2) Auburn
TC: This should be an entertaining game between two teams that like to get out in transition. The problem for Miami is Auburn has a big size advantage and the Hurricanes struggle to defend in the paint. Expect the Tigers’ twin towers of Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler to be the difference in this matchup, as Auburn pulls away in the second half.
8. (7) Ohio State (+5.5) vs. (2) Villanova
VD: Name a team I want to fade more than Ohio State? Not sure if I will find one. The Buckeyes’ win over Loyola in the opening round was a hard watch, with the Ramblers going 4-of-18 on layups and 3-of-10 from the free-throw line. Villanova won’t play that poorly offensively, and in the same arena for the second game, the Wildcats could roll the Buckeyes. Villanova shoots 82.5% from the free-throw line (1st) on the season, plus the Wildcats went 46.4% from three and 91.7% from the line against 15-seed Delaware.
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