Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State (-6) Total:141
Corey Parson’s Over/Under Pick
The night’s final game in the NCAA Tournament features #12 Oregon State vs. #4 Oklahoma State in the Midwest Region.
The Oregon State Beavers upset Tennessee as an 8.5 point underdog. The win was Oregon State’s fourth straight victory.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys were able to hold off the Liberty Flames by nine points to advance to the round of 32.
This game opened up with the Cowboys as a 5.5 point favorite over the Beavers. On PointsBet, Oklahoma State has attracted over 50% of the spread tickets and betting handle. The money line moved up from -252 to -300 in some spots.
The total opened at 143 and has dipped as low as 140.5 at some shops, even with 70% percent of the tickets and money backing the over.
When the total hit 140, the juice on the 140 was -115, I think sharp money will come in on the over as we get closer to tip-off.
The money line is also starting to drop. It is as low as -250 in some shops. My guess is that will close with the Cowboys as a -5.5 point favorite. I think the Beavers are a live dog, but my wager will be on the over.
Edge: Over 141
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Vaughn Dalzell’s Spread Pick
The round of 32 has been filled with upsets and Oregon State is next in line. In a matchup with Oklahoma State, the winner will play Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16.
Oregon State has won seven of its last eight and eight of the past 10 games. The Beavers have covered in 11 of the previous 12 games.
Oklahoma State has won four of its previous five games and nine of the last 11. The Cowboys have also covered the spread in nine of the last 10 games.
The key to this game is will Oregon State stay hot beyond the arc, or will Oklahoma State stay cold? In the last five games, the Beavers have hit 41.2% of their three-pointers, 25th-best in the nation over that span. The Cowboys have made 30.9% in that time, 237th overall.
Oregon State has held its last four opponents to go 22-of-90 (24.4%) from three. In Pac-12 play, Oregon State led the conference with 32.5% allowed to opponents, so they are really locking in.
That will be threatening to Oklahoma State’s offense if they cannot hit the triple. Oklahoma State went 3-of-15 (20%) versus Liberty and 7-of-21 (33.3%) against Texas in the last two games.
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Oregon State has the size to compete with 7-foot-1 Roman Silva and three other starters standing 6-foot-7. Off the bench, the Beavers have two rotational players at 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-10.
The Cowboys are playing a six to seven-man rotation featuring one player over 6-foot-8. Oregon State has rebounded slightly better than Oklahoma State over the last three games, another factor in backing the Beavers.
NBC’s Sports Edge’s best trend for this matchup points to Oregon State ATS. Oregon State is 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) in its last 20 games.
In all honesty, Oklahoma State should advance, but Oregon State is on fire and will give the Cowboys all they can handle. Oregon State’s three-point barrage could die out today, but I think they can keep it closer than three possessions.
Game Pick: Oregon State +6 (1u)
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