Colorado vs. Florida State (-1.5)
The No. 4 seed Florida State Seminoles will take on the No. 5 slated Colorado Buffaloes in a highly anticipated matchup. Florida State used a +7 point second-half to seal the victory, while Colorado breezed by Georgetown in the first round. This is the first-ever basketball meeting between Colorado and Florida State.
Colorado will have fresh legs in this matchup after only three players recorded 28-plus minutes. The Buffaloes played 13 players, nine of them at 11 or more minutes and 11 guys finishing with at least two points.
One key aspect in this matchup will be the turnover battle. The Buffaloes are taking care of the ball much better than the Seminoles over the last three games. Colorado is turning the ball over 10.7 times per game in that span, while Florida State is at 19.3, the third-most in the nation.
The Seminoles rank 248th for offensive turnover percentage (20.3%) and 272nd in offensive steal percentage (10.1%). The Buffaloes do not force many turnovers, rarely recording more than five steals, but that does not matter much when they rarely turn the ball over. Florida State has a total of four combined steals in the last two games and Colorado has five. [[ad:athena]]
Using NBC Sports Edge Finder, I created my own trend. I went back to Head Coach Tad Boyle’s first year and checked to see how Colorado has performed when they are +1 or +1.5 underdogs. Well, they are 8-4 ATS (66.6%) in that role, cashing five straight before losing 65-62 to UCLA (+1.5) this season.
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Florida State is 2-4-1 ATS (33.3%) in its road games this season and 5-1-1 (83.3%) to the Over. Florida State has won three of its last six games and gone 1-4-1 ATS (20%).
Colorado is 5-7 ATS (41.6%) on the road this season and 10-2 (83.3%) to the Under. Colorado is 1-4 ATS (20%) this season as an underdog and failed to cover the last two games by a combined three points. The Buffaloes could easily be a 3-2 situation as the dog if one or two bounces went their way.
Both teams have five players that average nine or more points per game in the last three outings. I see Colorado using its fresh legs and building an lead early versus Florida State using its three-point shooting and quicker tempo. Florida State has also struggled shooting the three here and there, which concerns me.
Versus UNCG, Florida State went 0-of-9 from three after going 8-of-15 (53.3%) against Georgia Tech. Colorado is hitting the trey ball at 42.5% over the last five games, ranking 17th and 50% over the previous three outings (3rd).
Colorado has not advanced to the Sweet 16 or won two games in the NCAA Tournament since 1955 - yes, 66 years ago. That Colorado team went to the Final Four. Florida State has advanced to the Sweet 16 under Head Coach Leonard Hamilton three times.
I have this Buffaloes team making the Elite 8 and will gladly take the points here. They have been underrated all season long, while I can argue Florida State has been overrated. I like the Buffs to advance and will take the points.
Game Pick: Colorado +1.5 (1u)
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