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Belmont (-3) at Ohio: O/U 155.5
College Basketball is back!
The biggest bet on my slate is a matchup between the Belmont Bruins and Ohio Bobcats. I love it.
Belmont brings back plenty of experience, beginning with 6-foot-11 senior center Nick Muszynski. After he went down with injury late last season, the Bruins’ dream year went down the drain, but he is back and hopefully, better than ever.
Around him, the Bruins have Luke Smith, JaCobi Wood, Grayson Murphy, Ben Sheppard, Caleb Hollander, Even Brauns and plenty of other bench options from last year’s 26-4 team back.
The Bruins opened went 24-1 in the first 25 games, winning 23 of those games by three or more points.
Belmont started last season 10-0 on the road and 6-3-1 ATS, covering four of the first five to open the year. Belmont was a profitable team during the regular season. (One game did not have ML odds, hence the 25-4).
Belmont did all of that last season on a short summer because of COVID, and I expect the Bruins to look just as good opening the 2021-22 campaign.
For Ohio, Jason Preston is no longer a Bobcat, which means it is time to fade away. Ohio returns Dwight Wilson, Ben Vander Plas, Ben Roderick and Lunden McDay, the core four outside Preston. Those four starters averaged 26 or more minutes per game.
While that makes Ohio tough at home, the bench has no depth. The Bobcats have one player from last year’s team with more than 5.0 points per game off the bench.
Belmont has six players from last year’s team that averaged 20-plus minutes per game and nine that returned 8.0 or more minutes per game while Ohio has six.
I believe Belmont can wear Ohio down with its depth and as fatigue should be noted as an early season factor. The Bobcats could be the team experiencing that more so than the Bruins.
Ohio is 12-12-1 ATS at home in the last 25 versus teams outside the MAC and 2-5 in the previous seven. Back Belmont -3 up to -4.
Pick: Belmont -3 (1.5u)
FIU at Georgia (-9): O/U 153.5
“This is,” FIU head coach Ballard Jeremy said, “the biggest, longest, deepest and most talented team we’ve had in my three years at FIU.”
When speaking with the Miami Herald and discussing his FIU Panthers team for the upcoming season, Ballard seemed confident his team is turning the corner.
Both FIU and Georgia are going through slight renovations of the roster with plenty of transfers and newcomers. The Bulldogs are one of the most inexperienced bunches in the NCAA.
Georgia’s roster includes 10 newcomers made up of five DI transfers, two JUCO transfers and three true freshmen.
The Bulldogs led 32-18 over Morehead in their exhibition and ended up with a 64-49 victory after fighting off a second-half comeback with 9:10 left where they were only up two points, 41-39.
FIU received Clevon Brown (Vanderbilt), Aquan Smart (Maryland) and 7-foot-1 center Seth Pinkney (Quinnipiac). All three will contribute right away and Pinkney’s 7-foot-7 wingspan will be something fun to watch versus Georgia.
Since 2016, FIU is 11-4 ATS when they are underdogs of +9 to +14.5, including 7-1 in the past eight (since 2018), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Georgia is 10-11 ATS (47%) over the last two seasons as home favorite and 14-10 (58%) ATS in its last 24 games overall. The Bulldogs were not a team worth betting on last season unless you were fading.
The same could be said for FIU, but with these squads playing each other and the season-opener being the best time for this FIU team to face a new Georgia squad, let’s take the Panthers +9.
Last season, FIU played at the 82nd fastest adjusted tempo and ranked 30th in 2020. The Panthers like to play fast, and Georgia could get caught up since they ranked 13th and 64th over the past two seasons in tempo.
With most teams welcoming new talent, I do not want to play many Overs but see more value on FIU’s side. The Panthers should keep this within 10 points. I would play it down to +8.
Pick: FIU +9 (1u)
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Rider at Duquesne (-7.5): O/U 144.0
Per Duquesne’s athletic department, the Dukes will replace 85 percent of its scoring, 75 percent of its rebounding, 82 percent of assists, 78 percent of steals and 80 percent of the blocks from last season. That spells offensive trouble.
Rider averaged 67.5 points per game last season (262nd), while Duquesne was 271st with 66.9 per contest. Neither squad was much for scoring with a combined 134.4 points per game last season.
Duquesne has gone 21-4 on the ML in non-conference home games under head coach Keith Dambrot. However, this team is brand-new with barely any returners, yet they still gets the -7.5 home favorite tag.
That is because Rider almost lost to Kutztown in an exhibition game, a DII school in PA.
See, I used to intern for the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC), the conference Kutztown is in -- After that, I was a Sports Information Director for the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC), the conference Rider plays in.
So you can imagine when I saw Kutztown was up 43-29 at the half over Rider, I immediately became intrigued in betting this game.
Rider battled back and won 78-76, but it’s clear they are not good, struggling to score in the first 20 minutes to a talented DII school. Kutztown usually rivals my alma mater, the Indiana University of PA (IUP), so I have watched them over the years and know people in the athletic department. Kutztown is a good DII program.
Rider averaged 32.4 points per game in the first half of last season (196th) and Duquesne, 32.8 (175th).
Rider was down 49-29 in the opening frame to start last season versus Syracuse and Duquesne trailed Arkansas Little Rock 34-30.
Both teams need a few minutes to figure each other out, plus their own rosters. I expect a slow start for each team and defense to be the theme early. They are playing the season-opener in a new arena, so it will be hype and we should see first half jitters.
The first-half total of 68.5 is worth an Under bet. I would play the game total down to 142.5 and the 1H down to 67.5 before I would pass.
Pick: 1H Under 68.5 (1u), Under 144 (0.5u)
Niagara at Xavier (-16.5): O/U 139.5
This spread opened at +18.5 on some books, and before I knew it, this was on the move to +17.5 and +16.5. Xavier has won 31 straight season openers and they should get number 32 here.
I believe fair price is +15 for these two squads and the opening line did not reflect Xavier Zach Freemantle’s injury status.
Freemantle is out until December. That leaves the Muskateers with returners such as Paul Scruggs, Nate Johnson, Colby Jones and Jack Nunge, the transfer from Iowa.
This season will be a big one for Xavier head coach Travis Steele. He is in season number four with zero NCAA tournament games under his belt. This could be his final season at Xavier.
As favorites of -15 or more, Xavier is 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 as a home favorite (23%), per NBC Edge Finder.
Xavier’s opponent, the Niagara Purple Eagles, are 8-4 ATS in the last 12 as a road dog of +15 or more (66%).
One stat that could help Niagara cover is the adjusted tempo. Last season, they were one of the slowest teams in the country with a 69.7 efficiency (330th). Xavier liked to play slow as well, sitting at 71.8 (207th).
Xavier tried to run versus Ferris State in the opener, something that was a lot easier against them than it will be against Niagara. The Eagles have the size to neutralize the Muskateers down low, and Niagara’s best player is their leading do-it-all guard, Marcus Hammond.
Hammond was second on the team in scoring (12.7) and was first in rebounds (5.8) assists (3.0) last season, so he will play a key role in an Eagles cover.
Last season, Niagara led the MAAC in turnover margin (+3.25), assist to turnover ratio (1.19) and averaged the fewest turnovers per game (9.9).
Nationally, Niagara ranked sixth with the fewest turnovers per game and 22nd in turnover margin last season. Xavier ranked 300th last year with 11.48 turnovers forced per game.
If you do not force turnovers, it’s hard to cover big spreads.
Take the Purple Eagles to cover as the line movement has been telling enough, but so is Xavier’s history as favorites of -15 or more. I would play this down to +15 before I pass.
Pick: Niagara +16.5 (1u)
UT Arlington at Oklahoma State (-19.5): O/U 145.5
If you bet with me last season, we got on Oklahoma State -6.5 at UT Arlington, and the line closed at -10. Oklahoma State won by seven. We won. The public did not.
A season later, UT Arlington is now +19.5/20.5 dogs as the road team? I am not sure the Cowboys got 13-points better, or a home crowd warrants that type of line difference from one season to another.
UT Arlington returns four starters, including four of the five who started in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament game a season ago. The Mavericks received transfer Javon Levi, a 5-11 guard who was WAC All-Defensive Team last season and the WAC Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 and 2020 at UTRGV.
The Mavericks were also really good at a few important stats last season like blocks per game (ranked 21st, 4.8 per game), three-pointers made per contest (ranked 37th, 9.0 per game) and turnover margin (ranked 33rd, +2.8 per game).
Those numbers can work against an Oklahoma State team that returns four starters and landed four crucial transfers.
Oklahoma State played an exhibition game against Central Oklahoma and led 39-38 at halftime before winning 76-68.
That exhibition game was an obvious spot where Oklahoma State should win by 20 comfortably but they did not. History shows, that as a -15 favorite or larger at home, the Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in the last 10. None of those were conference games either, dating back to 2017.
UT Arlington beat Southeastern Missouri State 68-64 after trailing with under five minutes to go. After the outcome, UTA’s head coach Greg Young said, “I knew this was going to be a hard game when we scheduled it, and that’s why I wanted to play it.”
Young will make his debut as the head coach after spending years on the bench as an assistant. UTA will start three graduate students and two third-year sophomores versus Oklahoma State’s talented returners and newcomers.
A majority of guys on this roster have played for Young already and I expect them to play hard in his first official game and by his comments, I think he is going to coach hard.
This game won’t be that close, but I doubt it will be a 20-point plus blowout for the Cowboys. Let’s ride with the Mavericks down to +17.5.
Pick: UT Arlington +19.5 (1u)
IUPUI at Butler (-25.5): O/U 143.0
Butler will be without Bo Hodges, Myles Tate and Ty Groce. All three are out for the season-opener as each are dealing with knee injuries.
That puts the Bulldogs at a disadvantage as heavy -25.5 point favorites against IUPUI.
IUPUI does not draw a road underdog tag of +25 or more very often. It has not happened since 2017 and in the last five games they were road underdogs of that magnitude -- IUPUI covered four times (80%). Gonzaga was the only team that covered.
Butler was 3-4 ATS as a home favorite (42.8%) and 6-9 over the last 15 games (40%).
As favorites of -25 or more, Butler is 5-4 ATS since 2014 (55.5%) but failed to cover three of the last four. This spread is too high with three starters out, even against a lowly IUPUI team.
IUPUI returns two starters and seven total letterwinners from last year’s team. This Jaguars’ replaces three leaders that all were talented, but against an opponent down three starts, there is wiggle room to be had.
All of my models make this spread +21.5, so I will take the extra points as this has already come down from +27.5.
Pick: IUPUI +25.5 (1u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
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