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Each week we’ll take a look at the college basketball futures market to break down the odds of a particular teams. Betting futures is all about timing and getting a good number. This week I look at NCAA Championship odds and discuss one team bettors should buy in the futures market and another team to avoid.
Odds courtesy of PointsBet
Buy
Seton Hall Pirates +6000
I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Auburn was the best value still left on the board and to hit the Tigers soon. Well, that value is almost gone with Auburn’s title odds shortening from +6000 to +3000 in just two weeks. Now I think the Pirates offer the best value on the board.
The Pirates and UConn played a classic on Saturday with Seton Hall pulling out the win in OT. I also have UConn at +6000 from earlier in the year and there are multiple teams in the stacked Big East that can make a deep tournament run. However, as we sit here today, Villanova and Seton Hall look to be the best of the bunch to me.
The Pirates have three “really good” losses on their resume. Seton Hall lost to Ohio State by three on a neutral count, Providence by five on the road, and Villanova by six at home. Keep in mind though, the losses to Providence and Villanova were without big men Tyrese Samuel and Ike Obiagu. When those two are in the lineup, Seton Hall has one of the deepest, most talented front lines in college basketball.
The other thing I really like about the Pirates is they have two closers in Jared Rhoden and Bryce Aiken, who combine to average 28.6 points per game. This is important because teams are going to play close games in the NCAA Tournament and Seton Hall has multiple players who can hit big shots down the stretch.
There is just so much to like about this team right now. The Pirates are 12-3 and have played the 18th toughest schedule in the country, according to KenPom. Seton Hall ranks 29th in effective field goal defense, 39th in free-throw percentage, they rarely turn the ball over, rebound well, and are one of the best teams in the country at defending the perimeter.
If there is one area of concern it’s on the offensive end. The Pirates rank 208th in effective field goal percentage and 289th in three-point field goal percentage. Those are issues that could trip up the Hall in the NCAA Tournament but at +6000, the positives far outweigh the negatives.
I celebrated New York getting mobile sports betting on Saturday by throwing some money on Seton Hall to win it all at +6000. If they get a good draw in the tournament, the Pirates have enough ingredients to make a run.
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Sell
North Carolina Tar Heels +5000
Some people might think a talented team like UNC is a good bet at +5000. However, unless the Tar Heels improve by leaps and bounds defensively, they are more likely to suffer a first-round upset than make a Final Four run.
I wanted to address the Tar Heels because I’ve gotten a few inquiries about this team on social media. I agree, the guard play and offensive firepower on this team makes them attractive. The problem though is teams that rank 75th in defensive efficiency rarely make deep tournament runs.
We saw this last year with Iowa. The Hawkeyes ranked third in offensive efficiency but 75th in defensive efficiency. They won one game in the tournament before getting blown off the floor by Oregon.
North Carolina is very similar to last year’s Iowa team. They have the offense to blow out inferior opponents but when they face teams that can defend and push them around in the paint, the Tar Heels struggle.
We saw this in losses to Purdue, Tennessee, and Kentucky where North Carolina allowed an average of 93.3 points. UNC’s best wins this year are over Michigan and Virginia, who are a combined 16-12.
Any team with Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, and R.J. Davis is certainly talented enough on paper to do damage in the NCAA Tournament, and +5000 is a nice number. However, until UNC proves that its defense can slow down top teams, betting the Tar Heels to win it all is throwing money out the window.
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